Lord George Robertson’s farewell visit to Ukraine in the capacity of NATO Secretary General is a certain sign of the end of the era when the parties were only examining each other’s potential and gradually establishing relations that seemed slow but showed a definitely ascending development. It was precisely Lord Robertson who first said that the alliance is prepared to go as far in its relations with Ukraine as Ukraine is itself prepared for. While today broader and broader groups treat this as something natural, five years ago this was much less obvious. Obviously, five years ago Ukraine’s National Defense and Security Council’s decision On Working Out the Strategy for the Euro-Atlantic Integration, approved last May and aimed at joining NATO as a global security mechanism, would have encountered a completely different international response. Today, although Kyiv cannot boast considerable international support on its path (only Warsaw and Washington openly speak of it), there is also no denying the fact that in principle, if Ukraine meets certain standards, this could happen relatively soon. Simultaneously, Ukraine’s leadership has virtually stopped making any distinction between the European and Euro-Atlantic integration, though so far this remains mostly on the level of declarations.
Eleven months ago a summit very important and at the same time difficult for Ukraine was held in Prague, during which two documents were signed, defining the essence of Ukraine-NATO relations: a general Action Plan and Target Plan for 2003. Many Western politicians, Lord Robertson included, and experts stated at that time that, first, both documents should in principle be viewed as a considerable success, and, second, implementing them could stimulate the next step, applying to Ukraine the NATO Membership Action Plan, deepened political dialog on membership issues and, finally, an invitation to enter the alliance, which usually is made at its summits, and signing the protocol on Ukraine’s accession.
Regarding Ukraine’s defense reform, many speak positively of the Defense Minister and his efforts. Judging by the statements of Western politicians and diplomats, today the team dealing immediately with the Euro Atlantic integration issues — Defense Minister Yevhen Marchuk, Foreign Minister Kostiantyn Hryshchenko, and Director of the National Center for Euro-Atlantic Integration Volodymyr Horbulin — has both a credit of trust and will to cooperate in part in carrying out the defense review. However, it has been repeatedly stressed that it will be not military capacity as such that will become the key factor for taking the decision on implementing a Membership Action Plan for Ukraine.
No doubt, even before the May 2004 Istanbul NATO summit at which, according to Ambassador Herbst in particular, discussing the next steps in the NATO-Ukraine relations cannot be ruled out, NATO members will expect Kyiv to guarantee honest and democratic elections in 2004. The state of the political and economic reforms, implementing civilian control over the Armed Forces, adjusting the legislation, and even national minority problems, not to mention the traditionally sore spot for Ukraine’s image, the freedom of the press issue — will all determine the Istanbul summit’s decision, which will be held in a little over six months.
Lord Robertson used to say that in developing relations between Ukraine and NATO everything will depend on actions, not words. There is no reason to think that new NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer will follow a different line. Only concrete actions can confirm what has already become reality: Ukraine has something to bring to the alliance, since it is not so much a security consumer as contributor (in part, through peacemaking operations in the Balkans, which have already jumped Ukraine ahead on the alliance’s waiting list). Ukraine’s unique geopolitical position can help it strengthen this role.
The thesis that the way to Europe is through NATO has thus every chance to become reality, although, as usual, at a certain price. The price is well known: fundamental and genuine changes in everything.
