Serhii Tihipko places third in the first lap of the presidential race, a sensation for many. A number of experts believe that there is a noticeable increase in the Ukrainian electoral market demand for cardinal changes in the domestic economy — the more so as proposed by a relatively new figure in the political domain. Tihipko has focused his campaign on a “strong economy under a strong president.”
Well, the rest [of the presidential candidates] make up the good old cadre. All of them keep promising a strong upgraded Ukrainian economy. Olha Balakireva, head of the Department for Monitoring Sociopolitical Transformations at the National Academy's Institute for Social Studies, says that most of their declarations boil down to what is topping the current social agenda. Yulia Tymoshenko promises to implement the Ukrainian Breakthrough Project — which is remembered by few if any today and which provides for nanotechnologies, microelectronics, rocket science, aircraft, sea/rivercraft, machine-building and information technologies. We also hear about the government supporting the small- and medium-size business, by lowering the loan interest rate so it can meet European standard while making five-to-ten-year bank loans available to business ventures. We hear promises of easing the tax burden, canceling certain taxes, including the market income tax.
Viktor Yanukovych says Ukraine will be added to the G-20 list in ten years. His campaign program focuses on dynamic reforms using what is described as a time-tested, effective innovative development model. He guarantees that GDP growth will be on an upward curve, starting in 2010, along with innovative businesses, and up to 50 billion dollars' worth of foreign inland investment in 2014.
Ukrainian parliamentary-presidential legislation, however, does not provide for such presidential powers. Balakireva predicts that, without completing the political reform, the Prime Minister and the President of Ukraine will remain opposed to each other and get in each other's way.
The Day asked its experts to comment on what the next President of Ukraine would be able to accomplish and what were promises meant for the trustful voters.
COMMENTS
Oleksii MOLDOVAN, senior consultant with the economic and social strategy department, National Institute for Strategic Studies; economist with the Anti-Crisis Study Center:
“Both [presidential] candidates made rather generous promises, although I am convinced that neither Tymoshenko nor Yanukovych will make any of them come true in 2010.
“For example, one has to put the budgetary system in order first and offer increased social guarantees next. We have so many problems in this domain! We have to figure out our debts, repay advance payments on taxes, solve the problem of refunding VAT payments, funding capital expenditures — with the key problem being that of servicing the public debt. My own estimates point to such expenditures in certain areas worth some sixty percent of planned central budget receipts.”
Oleksandr SOLONTAI, expert with the Institute for Political Studies:
“The [future] President will be able to exert a considerably lower degree of influence on [Ukraine’s] economic policy than stated in the [election] campaign programs, although his/her influence remains a fact, in the first place the President's right to veto any laws concerning economic reforms.
“Tymoshenko and Yanukovych shaped their campaign programs, being aware of their status as the leaders of the two predominant political forces in Ukraine, with two largest factions in the Verkhovna Rada that are capable of making their campaign promises come true. Also, Yanukovych and Tymoshenko believe that, when in power, he/she will be able to influence the government.”
Volodymyr FESENKO, director, Penta Political Study Center:
“If and when Yulia Tymoshenko becomes President of Ukraine, there is a strong likelihood of her remaining de facto head of government. If and when she arranges for having a politician fully under her control as the next Prime Minister of Ukraine, she will be able to carry out her economic reforms. As for Yanukovych, I'm afraid that his electorate is in for a great deal of disillusionment. His promised increase in social payments is unrealistic, considering that there are no economic resources, while solving this problem by carrying out another emission is very likely to cause investment cataclysms. If and when Yanukovych becomes President of Ukraine, he will remain the proverbial naked king for at least six months, in the absence of parliamentary majority, and above all having no way to influence the government, thus having no way to influence Ukraine's economic policy and being unable to keep his campaign promises.”
