Lviv — Resounding speeches full of big promises delivered by Ukraine’s presidential candidates and crowded party events organized in the capital seem to have little impact on average Lvivites. I have received evidence of that during my walk across the city. My question, “Which presidential candidate will take the president’s office?” was brushed off like a bothersome fly by the pedestrians, who were hurrying on their business along the billboards that claimed: “She is working,” “Ukraine should belong to its people,” “We will give you a contract army,” “His program is about justice,” and the like, as well as Yatseniuk’s tents of nondescript color.
Even the famous Lviv “flowerbed,” located to the left of the Shevchenko Monument, is empty, too. Even retirees, usually active followers of political events, now gather in small groups near benches to watch chess battles instead of talking about urgent problems. The overall visual impression is that serious preparations for winter are underway in Lviv: women are winterizing the windows, while men are bringing home large bags of potatoes, cabbages, and onions on their shoulders or in hand-pulled carts. Lvivites are also taking care of their private lives: numerous newly-wed couples are fluttering with huge armfuls of flowers in the Rynok Square and the Stryi Park and posing for cameras and video cameras; they rejoice at the warm and dry weather, which has finally returned to Lviv after a long period of rains.
Meanwhile, a pre-election opinion poll conducted in late September-early October by the Sotsioinform Agency in five districts of Lviv shows that in the coming elections Lvivites will vote for the following presidential candidates: Yulia Tymoshenko — 23 percent, Viktor Yushchenko — 15.1 percent, Arsenii Yatseniuk — 14 percent, Viktor Yanukovych — 4.9 percent, and Oleh Tiahnybok — 4.6 percent. A total of 10.9 percent respondents will vote against everybody, while 19.1 percent found it difficult to answer the question.
Why does a personal survey of The Day’s journalist differs so much from the one conducted at the beginning of the election campaign by the center of public opinion research? Below is the answer to this question given by Lviv’s political scientist Yurii SHVEDA:
“Today one should be very careful in his attitude to public opinion surveys, primarily because the election race is not such an urgent matter for the voters at the moment. Average voters understand that the election campaign has just begun, and they will have nearly three months to make their choice. The question ‘Who will you vote for?’ sounds quite hypothetical. So, the results of the poll indicate which of the presidential candidates is better known to the citizens. Therefore, it is too early to say that the polls are indicative of popular support.
“I think that public opinion polls perform a propaganda function, rather than give an objective cross-section of the voters’ attitude to the candidates. These kinds of surveys are more likely to shape public opinion concerning one candidate or another. Indeed, the question of candidate support hardly tops the list of average Ukrainians’ priorities. Apparently, life is going on and the question of elections is of minor importance in people’s daily routine.
“It is too early to speak about leading candidates in certain region at the beginning of the election campaign, although the mass media, evidently assisted by election headquarters, are leading people to the opinion that despite the rich choice they will have to choose only between the most popular candidates. I personally want to contend this approach. For example, a high percentage of Lviv respondents say that they have not yet made up their mind as to which candidate to vote for, so they will give it more consideration. … Another part is still considering whether to go to the elections at all.
“Regarding the efficiency of public opinion surveys, I will give you an example with US President Barack Obama. At the beginning of the election campaign, experts could hardly predict that Obama would win over such a powerful candidate as Hillary Clinton. Nonetheless, this has happened, which came quite unexpected to the experts who administered the polls. That is why I say that the special feature of the current election campaign is that people have become disillusioned with the candidates who have already been in power, and they are looking for new faces. Thus, there is a high probability of quite an unexpected result. People want a revamp.”
