The latest polls show that Ukrainians are the unhappiest people in Europe, and they have the shortest average life span. Experts have also determined that people who make long-term plans (e.g., stock-breeders) live longer. Adequate living conditions also play an important role. To date, no studies have been done to track Ukrainians’ preferences and things that help us live longer. Instead, the specialists at the Kyiv International Institute Sociology (KMIS) have pinpointed our greatest fears. Below, Volodymyr PANIOTTO, the director general of KMIS, who teaches at the National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, comments on his institute’s findings.
Dr. Paniotto, why did you formulate a question for the survey “Fears and Problems of Ukraine’s Population” as follows: “What do you think people fear most these days?” Why didn’t you write something like “What is your biggest fear?”
“Questions about fears can be included in the category of so-called sensitive issues. People are not willing to comment on these questions because they include information about their private lives, incomes, and so on. Nor are people willing to respond to questions about their personal shortcomings, weak points, and worries. They are least inclined to admit the presence of fear. There are different ways to determine what people really think. One way is to ask them about other people. If the subject in question is not being covered in the media, most respondents, when they are asked what they fear most today, more often than not transfer their own fear to others or reflect the opinion of their immediate surroundings.”
According to your poll, most respondents are afraid of the rise in prices and utility fees in eastern Ukraine (62 percent), while the smallest percentage (47) is registered in the west regions. How would you explain this difference? People in the west are least afraid of wage arrears - 43 percent compared to 52 percent in the east. Is it perhaps that most people who live in western Ukraine rely on money transfers from their relatives who are working in Europe?
“I think that the current perception of the high level of migration in Ukraine’s western oblasts and the huge impact that money transfers are making on the economic situation of residents in those regions is exaggerated.”
“The third round of panel studies that we were commissioned to complete by the Consortium of German and US Universities will provide a more exact picture. In the given case, I think that the difference between these fears is connected to the fact that confidence in the Ukrainian government is significantly higher in the west than the east (the number of people willing to vote for Yulia Tymoshenko is 30 percent higher in the west than in the east). People who live in the western oblasts, compared to those in eastern Ukraine, place bigger hopes in the current government and its ability to solve the problem of rising costs.”
Forty percent of Ukrainians are afraid of losing their jobs. This percentage is almost the same in all regions. It would be interesting to view this issue from the gender and age angles.
“The difference in fears in terms of gender is almost negligible; four percent may be attributed to selection errors. As for age groups, pensioners have the fewest fears (this is explained by the fact that the number of people in this age group who are still employed is much lower than in other age groups). In other age groups, the greatest fears are expressed by almost one-half (49 percent) of 18— to 29-year-old respondents, followed by 30— to 44-year-old respondents, whereas 47 percent fear unemployment. We have noticed a weak stabilization trend that comes with aging.”
One in four respondents fears losing his/her able-bodied status. How are these fears linked to people’s health? Why is the highest percentage (33) recorded in the west, compared to 24 percent in the southern and central regions, and 25 percent in eastern Ukraine?
“Yes, these fears may be linked to health. People’s estimates of their state of health, as demonstrated by some epidemiological studies, generally demonstrate this adequately. According to our findings, 17 percent of people who think their health is bad or very bad live in the western oblasts, 22.6 percent in the central regions, and 22.4 percent in both southern and eastern Ukraine.
“The percentage of those who believe their health is bad roughly coincides with the percentage of people who are afraid of losing their jobs in all oblasts except in western Ukraine, where this number is two times higher. It is difficult to say what causes this increase. To answer this question, an additional analysis may be required, even additional studies of what categories of the population make up such groups, which of Ukraine’s media have the greatest influence on western Ukraine compared to other regions, and so on. Sometimes answers to such questions are very hard to find, for example, when this difference is caused by the very effective performance of insurance companies in the western regions, particularly in terms of health insurance policies; in such cases, assessments are very difficult to make.
“As for age groups, the dependence is negligible: the more advanced a person’s age, the worse that individual’s health and his/her self-assessment; 4 percent of respondents under 29 regard their health as bad; nearly 7 percent do in the 30— to 44-year-old bracket; 22.5 percent of people between 45 and 59; and 48 percent over 60 years of age.”
Why is it that in the eastern regions, which suffered most from the Holodomor of 1932-33 and whose population remembers the famine, only nine percent of respondents are afraid of it? Is it because they didn’t answer truthfully? And why are so many people scared of famine in western and southern Ukraine (19 percent in both cases)?
“I think that in this case the real economic situation has a greater influence than memory. This year the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology conducted a survey indicating that only 12 percent of respondents believed they didn’t have enough money to buy food, whereas 15 percent feared another famine in Ukraine. Ten years ago, in 1998, some 50 percent of the population couldn’t afford to buy enough food, and about 70 percent were afraid of famine. Over the years positive dynamics have lessened these fears by 55 percent, but people’s memories haven’t changed considerably.”
Is the fact that 20 percent of respondents fear a rise in the crime rate explained by their own negative experiences or the collapse of our judicial system and distrust of judges, the prosecutor’s office, and the police?
“According to our data collected in late 2007, eight percent of the Ukrainian population had experienced various situations involving crime. These people have relatives and friends. Therefore, 20 percent is quite realistic in regard to people who have such fears, which stem from their own or their friends’ experiences. I doubt that this has anything to do with lack of confidence in the judicial system or the police. If you are robbed or mugged, what you dislike is the process. Even if you believe that the police will find and arrest the robbers and that they will be punished by a court of law, your fear of criminals will not abate with your belief in just retribution.”
What about that five percent of respondents who said they are not afraid of anything?
“In terms of gender, age, and education, it is impossible to single out a category. It is possible to assume that these people didn’t take our poll seriously and were unwilling to give straight answers to straight questions.”
Thirty-eight percent of the respondents stated that it was hard for them to say what problems are being resolved by Yulia Tymoshenko; 34 percent did not answer. How does this correlate with the highest degree of popular confidence in Tymoshenko (25 percent, according to your institute’s findings), considering that most of her supporters are middle-aged people, who probably have the greatest number of problems and fears?
“If we had presidential elections right now, 25 percent of the electorate would vote for Yulia Tymoshenko and 75 percent for the other candidates (or for no one) in the first round. At the same time, 72 percent are not clear about what problems Tymoshenko is trying to solve. I suspect that these data have been unified. As for the claim that Tymoshenko’s supporters include mostly middle-aged people — that is simply not true. Most of her supporters are people between the ages of 33 and 44, and only 26 percent are over 60.”
