Steven Pifer has occupied various diplomatic posts in the past 27 years, including that of the US ambassador to Ukraine. For a number of years in his State Department career he was responsible for US policy in the European region, specifically in Ukraine. He is now Senior Adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies and is likewise involved with these matters. Obviously now that he is not in public service he can say more than he usually allowed himself as a diplomat. Does the retirement of Foreign Minister Borys Tarasiuk mean that President Viktor Yushchenko has lost the game to the Party of Regions? How can the dismissal of this European- minded minister affect Ukraine’s foreign policy, US-Ukraine relations, Ukraine’s integration into the EU and NATO? The US analyst kindly agreed to an interview with The Day .
What does Borys Tarasiuk’s resignation mean for President Yushchenko? Has he completely lost the fight with the Party of Regions?
One aspect of the political in-fighting between President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yanukovych over the past two months has been the question of Mr. Tarasiuk’s status. The struggle left the foreign minister in an untenable position. That, I imagine, is why he chose to step down, and so as not to damage Ukraine’s position and image. It is not yet clear what this means for the broader division of executive power between the prime minister and the president. We still have to see how the law on the cabinet is handled and whether there are amendments to address the president’s concerns. Hopefully, while some of these broader constitutional questions are being sorted out, the president and prime minister can find ways to cooperate on key domestic and foreign policies. If they just get bogged down in an internal power struggle, Ukraine will likely see the attention and engagement of some of its key international partners drift away.
How can Tarasiuk’s resignation influence Ukrainian foreign policy and Ukrainian-US relations? Will Ukrainian policy become more pro- Russian?
The president still sets the lead on foreign policy questions, and President Yushchenko presumably will appoint someone as foreign minister who shares his view of the appropriate direction for Ukraine’s foreign policy. So, while there may be some changes in nuance, I do not expect to see major shifts in Ukraine’s foreign policy direction. Even when one takes account of the view of the prime minister, it does not appear that he and the president differ on important questions such as U.S.-Ukraine relations, moving Ukraine closer to the European Union, or acceding to the World Trade Organization as rapidly as possible. Even on the question of Ukrainian- Russian relations, while the prime minister talked about introducing a different tone to the dialogue between Kyiv and Moscow, it does not appear that there have been major substantive changes in the way that Ukraine approaches issues on the bilateral agenda.
What about integration into the EU and NATO? Will it be slowed down?
With regard to the European Union, there appears to be agreement among the president, prime minister. and Ukrainian public on the desirability of drawing closer to, and ultimately joining, the European Union. So there is no apparent reason why a new foreign minister would change the pace of Ukrainian-EU relations. The key thing there is to make practical progress, for example, by implementing the EU-Ukraine action plan and finishing accession to the World Trade Organization, so that negotiation of a free trade agreement with the European Union can begin. As for relations with NATO, the pace was changed last fall, when the prime minister said he did not support a Membership Action Plan at this point. This is an issue on which the president and prime minister differ; it would be helpful for Ukraine’s foreign policy — and for those countries that support a broad, cooperative and deepening NATO-Ukraine relationship — if Yushchenko and Yanukovych could come to an agreement on how far and how fast they wish Ukraine to proceed in its relations with the alliance.
Who would be the best choice for the post of foreign minister?
It’s not really my place to name an individual. I will just say that there are a number of talented people in Ukraine who have the expertise, experience, and foreign policy skills to succeed as Ukraine’s foreign minister.
