“Ukraine will become a full- fledged NATO member in 2008,” a competent foreign ministry source told The Day, admitting that “this is just a plan.” However, these Euro-Atlantic intentions are treated quite seriously by the Ukrainian government, even though these ambitions are almost ungrounded.
2008 has been repeatedly mentioned in the context of Ukraine’s entry into NATO. In April of this year Foreign Minister Borys Tarasiuk, who met with his NATO colleagues in Vilnius, said that Kyiv will require three years to meet NATO membership criteria. A number of experts interpret the foreign minister’s statement differently. Some believe that Ukraine can only expect to be invited to embark on NATO membership procedures in 2008. Others say that the date is not binding on anyone, in any way. Other observers view the minister’s timeframe as realistic, even if it seems fantastic.
Certain experts in the West shared their views on NATO’s future expansion with The Day, strictly off the record. They regard 2008 as a likely possibility. In July 2006 Ukraine, Georgia, Serbia, Montenegro, and Bosnia will be invited to start implementing NATO membership action plans (an expanded format of cooperation between a given country and NATO; translated from officialese, this means that a given country has reached the final integration phase). After that, in keeping with the plan developed by Western analysts, during the 2008 summit scheduled in Bucharest or Berlin NATO will be joined by five countries: Albania, Croatia, Macedonia, Ukraine, and Georgia. The Serbs and Bosnians will receive early membership prospects.
The authors of these plans are aware of possible hitches, although they are not taking them into consideration. Such hitches may very likely happen, as there are a number of obstacles on Ukraine’s road to NATO. To begin with, some NATO countries are consistently opposing Ukraine’s membership. Various sources say that France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Belgium are members of the anti-Ukraine Eurointegration club. Another barrier is the absence of public and domestic political consensus in Ukraine regarding NATO membership. The fact that some politicians are playing up their voters’ belief that this country doesn’t need to join this “aggressive bloc” right now is probably connected to the lack of support for Euro-Atlantic integration. Is the Ukrainian government doing anything to change the situation? Not at the moment, despite the fact that a national program aimed at explaining the situation has been in existence for quite some time. In fact, all the countries of the former socialist camp, which are now NATO members, began their move toward the alliance with low public support of this integration. But active work in this direction eventually bore fruit. In all these countries the political elite and NGOs propelled the Euro-Atlantic movement. In Ukraine, the political establishment has shown at best an indifferent attitude to the process of integration into NATO. The principle “from one election to the next” is making itself felt here as well. The impression is that most politicians, afraid of losing their ratings before the next election campaign, prefer not to raise this unpopular issue. One reliable source also told The Day that a sentence stating that explanatory work regarding NATO would be carried out was not included in the submitted draft budgets. If so, can one believe the Ukrainian leaders when they talk about their commitment to European and Euro-Atlantic integration? How realistic is the possibility of Ukraine’s NATO membership in 2008?
Of course, now and then Ukraine pays attention to the NATO vector. Late last week the secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Anatoliy Kinakh, announced that an interministerial commission to coordinate NATO membership will be created soon, and that Ukraine intends to reorganize its diplomatic mission with NATO into an embassy. Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov recently met with NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer and “confirmed Ukraine’s unswerving interest in joining the alliance.” The secretary general stressed that NATO is keeping the doors open for Ukraine. NATO’s North Atlantic Council will be visiting Ukraine on Oct. 18-20. The Ukrainian side expects to receive clearer signals from Brussels, not just statements about doors being kept open. Another question is whether NATO will receive clearer signals from Ukraine concerning this country’s readiness to honor its commitments rather than mere declarations about adhering to democratic values. The NATO secretary general’s visit may provide the answer to the question of whether Ukraine can actually expect to be admitted in 2008.
COMMENTARY
Serhiy DZHERDZH, deputy chairman, Ukraine-NATO Civic League:
Ukraine may well become a member of NATO in 2008. When diplomats and politicians mention certain timeframes, they try to meet a well-justified objective by influencing bureaucrats, who must show more active efforts in moving Ukraine closer to NATO membership. If 2015 or 2020 were mentioned, this would dampen the enthusiasm of the bureaucratic machine responsible for integration. The objective, which has been allotted 10-15 years for implementation, appears simply unrealistic, as though it will be implemented in another lifetime. The announcement of Ukraine’s NATO membership deadline may serve as a serious incentive. I believe that this stimulus will prove effective. It’s important to establish clear-cut guidelines and move in the direction where we can carry them out. There is no doubt that our state must step up its work. After all, there is a state apparatus, which is made up of bureaucrats, not political figures, and they can fearlessly deal with integration questions, regardless of what is happening on the outside-an election campaign or a slow season between elections.
