There will never be 52 million living in Ukraine, not even 50 million. According to the Institute of Demography and Social Studies at the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (NANU), the best-case scenario is 46 million by 2015, but only in the presence of a number of factors, primarily a higher living standard and better health care. As it is, the institute’s experts predict that in 10 years Ukraine will have a million fewer families, each averaging three members. In other words, the birth rate shouldn’t be expected to provide an increment. With the current incidence of HIV and AIDS, so-called fetal losses may amount to between 100,000- 200,000. By 2015 Ukraine will have aged, with 438 pensioners per 1,000 able-bodied residents, constituting 21.7% of the population.
The authors of the population forecast, however, are sure that the average life span can be extended, as hematogenic diseases will grow “older” with the rise in the living standard. Correct preventive treatment programs will encourage smokers and drinkers to kick the habit. As a result, experts believe the average life span will increase by 6- 7 years — or only 4-5 years less than in Europe. In addition, a higher living standard will reduce the emigration rate. It is possible that 50,000 more Ukrainians will come to this country rather than leave it.
At present, the population is reduced by 400,000 every year. The reason is not only that most Ukrainian families prefer one child (a general European trend that demographers do not expect will change), but also the death rate and causes of death. Why do 47% of Ukrainian men die before reaching retirement age? Because, according to the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy, every fourth production facility doesn’t conform to established health standards and doesn’t pay enough attention to labor safety. As a result, every year 70,000 Ukrainians die as a result of industrial accidents.
Suicide deserves separate attention. Statistics point to an average of 26 suicides per 100,000 residents; according to the WHO’s standards, 20 suicides mark a critical level. Psychologist Iryna Zhdanova insists that in Ukraine suicides have nothing to do with the socioeconomic situation, that they are caused by the notorious love triangle, divorce, and adultery. Divorce as such is not the cause but rather its consequence, much like the loss of housing or source of income. And, of course, there are basic medical causes of mortality: hematogenic, respiratory, and oncological diseases. Each year every Ukrainian resident is exposed to 85 kg of pollutants; here the food value is 20%, which is the poverty and hunger level by international standards. A survey conducted by NANU’s Institute of Demography and Social Studies shows that 49.3% of the population cannot afford enough medications.
Of course, economic growth is necessary to improve most of these indices. Yet it may well be slowed down by the aging of the population. In the developed countries the cumulative pension system has long been in effect, which is why an increase in the number of pensioners has almost no effect on the able-bodied population. Experts believe that Ukraine’s current pension system will require higher taxes or a later retirement age. The State Statistics Committee reports that only one-third of men and one- quarter of women are employed at the age of 60-70, mostly in rural areas, indicating that this type of employment is primarily connected to private farm plots. At the same time there are no statistics showing that elderly people work less efficiently or slowly. Elsewhere in Europe it has long been established that the combination of age, knowledge, and experience is not being used effectively enough.
The situation with pensioners in Ukraine is exceptional. Polls show that 60% fear old age. The reasons are generally known and among the consequences is a rising rate of depression, accompanied by so-called pensioners’ disease and a general worsening of health. Psychologist Natalia Demianenko believes that medications are one thing, but being employed is a different story. Every factory or agency could have retraining courses for elderly employees so that they could qualify for easier jobs. Or there could be special work places for the elderly, which should be widely promoted. In any case, there would be a beneficial effect, as pensioners would not feel unwanted and would swell the numbers of the employed.
In a word, the problem can be solved. The Institute of Demography and Social Studies, together with the State Statistics Committee, has developed a population development concept offering concrete measures. Thus, housing loans and other programs could encourage childbirth; family medicine could improve the nation’s physical condition; information about the opportunities and hardships of employment in different regions could help regulate migration. One way or another, steps must be taken. According to a pessimistic population forecast, by 2015 Ukraine will have only 42 million residents.
