On October 3, advocates of Ukraine’s European integration got an unwelcome present on the eve of the Ukraine-EU summit in Yalta. The Ukrtransnafta Company Board approved the decision to accept the proposal of Russia’s TNK-BP Company to lend 360-420,000 tons of Urals class crude oil to fill the Odesa-Brody pipeline. This decision was supported by four supervisory board members, with three voting against and one abstaining. Shortly before, TNK-BP issued an ultimatum-style statement that it would refuse to loan the oil for a period of three years to fill the pipeline unless Ukraine made a positive decision before October 8. The pressure was successful. In the haste it was forgotten that the term of the government-announced tender for an independent evaluator of the economic expediency of pipeline reversal would expire on October 13. As Ukrtransnafta’s unjustified and rash decision raises a host of questions, the subject of the Odesa- Brody oil pipeline can by no means be considered closed.
One can set a certain game level on a computer chess program. It is very funny to try this game at the lowest level, when the computer calculates only one move ahead. You can lay your pawn open to its queen, and the computer is sure to capture the former even if this queen is to be taken the next move. It is all the same to the computer, for it calculates not more than one move ahead. One-move logic.
Similarly, a stupid fish rushes to swallow the bait without knowing that it is on a hook, so the next move will see the fish reeled in.
Similarly, a stupid mouse jumps on the free cheese without knowing that it is a mousetrap.
The sirens that sing sweet songs about pipeline back-pumping also pin their hopes on an equally low — if not even lower — intellectual level of the public. For example, a Russian oil company has made another show of unheard-of generosity with respect to the Odesa-Brody pipeline, and their local helpers, of course, call for us to show “pragmatism” and seize the opportunity to get rich. What kind of generosity is this? They offer their crude mix as a corrosion inhibitor for the now empty pipe and a three-year loan at what appears to be a low interest rate.
It is only, to put it mildly, a very naive person who will not guess that this is only the bait on the hook. Suffice it to recall the oft-repeated advice to see a geographical map. Why on earth should the Russians pump their oil from Ukraine’s eastern borders across all its territory to the west and then push it back across half the territory to Odesa? The more so that some far shorter pipes are not overflowing and can well put through all that Moscow wants to pump to Riazan via Kamchatka.
Clearly, there are other reasons for this strange wish. This has also been discussed more than once: the Odesa-Brody pipeline is simply dangerous for them. Caspian oil is better than theirs, Europe would prefer it, and if the project is implemented, their oil could see a fall in demand, and unfavorable prices could bring billions in losses.
Whether or not this will happen depends how they adapt themselves to the new realities. They will have to adjust themselves in any case because Caspian oil is sure to flow to Europe sooner or later even if they manage to neutralize the Odesa-Brody project. The point is that the oil is available and in demand.
But, so far, they are attempting to ruin the Odesa-Brody line by turning it onto a Brody-Odesa one. This is the opening move. And then, when the “simple Khokhols” swallow the bait, the next move will be to remind them of what was clear from the very beginning: it is silly to pump oil for another hundred kilometers if you have no need to do so. And they will stop pumping it. Meanwhile, the West will be looking for other routes. This will again more take than one year, which will enable the Russians to earn billions.
This means that the problem is: if the Russians are trying to win billions in all these pipeline reversing schemes, why then should the Ukrainians pay for their anti-corrosion oil? Because they promise us a chance to earn a few millions on Brody-Odesa transit? But this is thousands of times less than they will cash in on by ruining the Odesa-Brody project!
Everything has to be paid for. If Ukraine can do them a multibillion favor (and it really can in this situation), the Russians should pay us adequately instead of showing brazen impudence and demanding that we pay them “just pennies” for the crude blend!
It is they who should pay — and not the “pennies” but a considerable part of those billions. They should pay not for a reverse mode they allegedly need but for their intention to suppress the direct mode. Moreover, they should also compensate us for the lost profits from the Brody-Odesa route, a handsome amount at that. All this together is incomparably more than the small change we can earn for short-term “demonstration” deliveries in the reverse direction.
All this is quite clear, and there is not a shadow of a doubt that even not so competent people in Russia and Ukraine are well aware of it. The people in both countries understand that payments must be made and know only too well what figures are involved. It is we, the public at large, who are treated like simpletons and told tall tales about Europe that does not know what it wants, about a dry rusting pipe, and the good uncles who are giving us a chance to gain at least something by way of reversing.
Should the reverse-mode comedy continue, one will in any case pay for the real service. But in that case:
1. The amount paid will perhaps be lower.
2. Money will go into unknown pockets rather than into the state coffers.
This is the difference. Item 2 fully exposes motives of the Ukrainian advocates of pipeline reversing.
