Oleksandr STEHNIY, the SOCIS Center for Political and Electoral Research, Director:
Without doubt, this agreement is designed to change the situation in the future election debates. Whether it is real depends on if the six parties’ leaders, each of whom can view himself as rather a strong player in the presidential elections, are able to harmonize their claims, which are easy to foresee.
A political maneuver could stand behind this treaty, paving the way for negotiations. There are obviously some things in the background that will come to light in September or October. In holding such negotiations, their participants want to gain a reputation as active agents of the political process, so that others won’t forget about them and will count on their support, organizational, and financial resources.
One can state that during Ukraine’s entire independent history there has been no single presidential candidate either from the opposition or those in power. Incidentally, the latter’s attempt were more successful due to their strict hierarchy. Today it is possible that the authorities will nominate a single candidate, but only if under condition of, first, Yushchenko’s complete isolation from the main political processes in Ukraine, and, second, cooperation with Communists who have to go to the second round against the authorities’ candidate. In these terms consultations between Viktor Medvedchuk, head of the presidential administration, and the opposition Left wing speak volumes.
The agreement under discussion is a declaration of intent, paving the way for future actions. One shouldn’t confuse a declaration of intent and true agreements.
Andriy YERMOLAYEV, Director, Sophia Center for Social Research:
This statement reminds me the 2001 Centrist statement about creating a united party. I mean that it is designed not as much for external as for internal use. Representatives of various political forces in course of unofficial talks will have to synchronize their watches and agree upon the character of their interaction. But I’m extremely skeptical as to whether this agreement will be long-lasting.
Speaking of the political reform, the majority representatives in any case will have to cooperate in it. They just don’t have any choice, since reform of the political system is in fact what the parliamentary majority was all about. Concerning a single candidate, in my view, this current declaration is to a bigger extent connected with the president’s new initiatives than the agreement participants’ real intentions. Sooner or later, each of the signatories will nominate its own candidate, and we will witness their fights over whose candidate is most promising. In my view, the agreement is in general a cover for a big intrigue. Undoubtedly there were some concessions and conditions.
Both the majority and opposition are well aware that no matter what negotiations they have over the name of their candidate, only a politician able to lay claim to the role of a national leader can win. Unfortunately we lack such persons in Ukraine. Only now are Ukrainian politicians trying to define the measure for such leadership.
Volodymyr LAVRYNENKO, Director, Center for Political and Information Technologies:
The leaders of the six parties have repeatedly proclaimed their intent to support the political reform, coordinate their factions’ work in the parliament, and hold consultations with the coalition government. The only (relatively) new thing is the promise to nominate a single candidate. However, this position also logically derives from the whole logic of the electoral struggle and the authorities’ strategy. Second, the Statement of the Six was made public at a moment when the new draft bill on political reform as the “historic compromise” between those in power and part of the opposition was in fact almost agreed. Henceforth, the statement has more to do with image matters. It won’t affect the political situation in general or the pathways of political reform.
Oleksandr KRYVOSHEYENKO, Director, Center for Political Marketing:
In fact, the Agrarian Party of Ukraine, People’s Democratic Party of Ukraine, Party of Entrepreneurs and Industrialists of Ukraine, Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (United), and Labor Ukraine have once again confirmed their affiliation with the same political camp. The document signed obviously corresponds with major expectations of the political elite as well as the electorate about the agreement’s authors. Indeed, nobody had doubts that precisely the political forces personified by the six parties will act as a major force to implement the president’s version of political reform and elect a single candidate from the pro-presidential forces. In fact, with the start of the active stage of the presidential campaign, all the major political forces will in the immediate future define their statute in the race and their support of one candidate or another. Strengthening the Ukrainian political sphere’s structuralizing and major financial forces supporting certain candidates’ campaigns will become one of the governing tendencies in Ukraine’s political life during the next six months.
However, in my view, when the document was signed, there were no concrete results achieved as regards the agreement’s subject itself. Otherwise, it would speak about these questions, not about the intention to settle them.
