In the last six months, the level of support for NATO integration by Ukrainians did not change, though the number of those trusting the block has slightly lessened. This was the conclusion drawn by the leaders of the Ukrainian Institute for Social Research and Social Monitoring Center, based on the data from a recent poll conducted in November and December, 2002, of 3,063 persons aged 18 and above. According to these data, 28% of those polled expressed their trust in NATO against 44% who lack trust in it. Data from June 2002 were 39% and 34%, respectively. In the opinion of the director of the UISR, Oleksandr Yaremenko, such a decrease in trust could be explained by three major factors affecting public opinion. The most important one is that “since the beginning of last year till summer, a very active information campaign for entering NATO took place.” This gave sociologists the grounds to forecast, “If there remains the same level of propaganda and knowledge about NATO, it will further form its positive image and will lead to an increase in the level of trust in the block.” However, Mr. Yaremenko stated, “this didn’t happen, because in the second half of last year, the information about NATO in the media was rather fragmentary.” Also, in the sociologist’s opinion, the level of trust in the Alliance was affected by the problems connected with the President’s participation in the Prague summit. The third probable factor is “the relations between NATO and Ukraine which became more tense in the last period.”
Certain changes also took place in estimations of NATO. Since June 2002, the number of those believing NATO to be “the most powerful and influential military and political structure of our time” increased from 26% to 29%; those considering it “an aggressive military and political block” from 20% to 29%; and those viewing it as a “world gendarme securing the interests of the most prosperous Western countries” from 17% to 22%. Simultaneously, the share of those polled believing that NATO is “a peacemaking organization” decreased from 20% to 17%. In general, the sociologists comment that Ukrainians’ attitude towards NATO is rather ambiguous, which in its turn influences their attitude towards the block and Ukraine’s integration with it.
However, as regards the expediency of Ukraine’s joining NATO, the poll didn’t discover any major changes in public opinion. In June, 39% of the answers were positive, compared to 37% in November. The prospective of Ukraine’s joining the political and military block is negatively viewed by 29% of those polled. Those most positive towards this prospect are residents of Western Ukraine (51% spoke for it), and those least positive are in the Crimea (only 18% support this idea).
The answers to the question, “Will Ukraine ever become a member of NATO and, if yes, when will it happen?”, showed an interesting range of opinions. Around 40% failed to answer, 9% opined that Ukraine will never be a member of the Alliance, 17% admitted that this could happen in 6 to 10 years, 16% think that Ukraine will enter NATO in the next five years (Mr. Yaremenko referred to them as “unqualified optimists”), and the rest predicted a waiting period of 10 to 20 years.
In sum, Mr. Yaremenko noted that among very important indices of Ukrainian’s attitude towards NATO is a high level of uncertainty regarding the role of NATO in the world, as well as future relations between Ukraine and the block. In the opinion of the UISR director, it is also important to note that since 1995-1996, there exists a stable tendency for positive changes in our citizens’ attitude towards NATO. It is explained primarily by the policy the Ukrainian state implemented during the last years: increasing the number of contacts with NATO and NATO experts coming to Ukraine. “Holding joint military exercises, in part, in Western Ukraine, also influenced public opinion about the block in a very positive way,” believes the sociologist. Thus, the decrease in the trust in NATO registered at the end of last year is temporary, and the general positive trend in Ukrainians’ pro- NATO sentiments will hopefully continue in the future. Judging by the sociologic data, this requires that the authorities move in accordance with their Euro-Atlantic declarations and that the media adequately cover these activities.
