The electoral preferences recorded by public opinion polls in early February remained unchanged at the end of the month. For example, according to a nationwide representative poll conducted by the Ukrainian Institute of Social Research and the Social Monitoring Center on February 22 to 24 (2013 polled), the Communist Party of Ukraine (KPU) saw its rating dropping from 13.3% during the February 7-9 poll to 11.9%. The same applies to the so-called special interest parties: the Greens from 5.6% to 3.6% and Women for Future from 5% to 3.5%, respectively (all the data reflect the sentiments of voters who plan to take part in the elections, 88% of those polled —Author). Concurrently, the populace continues to show readiness to cast their votes for Our Ukraine (a rise from 19.7% to 25.2%) and SDPU(o) (from 5.7% to 6.6%). Also growing is the rating of the For a United Ukraine bloc: from 4.4% to 6.2%. Sociologists believe that a total of nine parties and blocs stand a good chance to make their way to Verkhovna Rada: in addition to those mentioned, these are the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc, Natalia Vitrenko Bloc, and Socialist Party. According to Oleksandr Yaremenko, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Social Research, Yabluko (Apple), now supported by 2.4% of those polled, also has a chance, for it has shown ever-growing popularity and is waging an active promotional campaign.
It is no accident that sociologists put emphasis in this research on public attitudes toward the pre- election actions, agitation, and political advertising of parties and blocs. It is these factors that play the most important role in shaping electoral preferences at the beginning of a campaign, despite the fact that only 2% of the polled noted in both cases that their electoral preferences were determined by political advertising and day-by- day agitation. This can be confirmed by the simple fact that, according to those polled, the nine top parties and blocs are campaigning most actively, with For a United Ukraine being the most active: 12% of the polled said they knew what electoral actions the bloc was carrying out and 3.6% revealed that they had spoken to canvassers. Incidentally, KPU ranks only fourth in terms of promotional activities. The respondents also noted a high level of campaign activity by Our Ukraine, Women, SDPU(o), and Yabluko.
The surveyors also decided to find out how the public assesses the televised political advertisements of parties and blocs. Those polled think that the most attractive advertisements were shown by Women for Future (preferred by 44%), the Greens (43%), Yabluko (40%), and SDPU(o) (35%). The same parties also top the list of those whose advertisements are well known to this country’s populace.
The sociologists tried, on the basis of such data on political parties’ and blocs’ activity and the current trends in voters’ predilections, to forecast the results of the March elections. According to Mr. Yaremenko, Our Ukraine stands a chance to win 26-28% of votes, KPU 13-15%, SDPU(o) 9-10%, and For a United Ukraine 12-14%. Asked by The Day whether all categories of the population were represented in the survey, Mr. Yaremenko said those polled do not include such very important social groups as “conscript servicemen, inpatients, and inmates of correctional and pretrial facilities, each of which numbers almost 200,000.”
