ICPS experts believe GDP will increase 2% in 2000 and 3% in 2001, the main increment factors being macroeconomic stability, better market demand and domestic output. A rational taxation policy will keep consolidated budget incomes at 26.5% GDP in 2000 and 26.8% in 2001. The state budget will be implemented at a surplus of 0.4% GDP in 2000 and 0.7% in 2001. In 2000, the hryvnia will drop by 21% (reaching UAH 5.3/USD 1.00) and by 14% in 2001 (UAH 7.1/USD 1.00). In 2000, the inflation rate will reach 18.6% and 13.2% in 2001, due to slower devaluation and smaller consumer market monetary supply. In 2000-01, foreign trade turnover will show a 3% annual increment. In 2000, actual monetary incomes of the populace will go up 3% due to legalized “unofficial” income sources, development of small business, and government efforts to observe budget social commitments; in 2001, after raising take- home wages and salaries, this increment will amount to 4%. In their findings the experts proceeded from official information sources: State Statistics Committee (Derzhkomstat), NBU, and Finance Ministry.
Tetiana Sytnyk, chief economist at ICPS, says the above findings are exposed to certain risk factors, such as lack of foreign support of domestic reform; macroeconomic stability may be in danger without further EFF tranches from IMF and World Bank projects. By Petro IZHYK ,
