Perhaps the epicenter of Ukrainian political activities will soon shift to the regions. Presidential Administration Head Volodymyr Lytvyn, addressing a meeting of regional media representatives, noted that the by-elections to Verkhovna Rada, scheduled for June, coinciding with the elections of certain heads of oblast centers, may well become a key factor in shaping Ukraine’s domestic political situation (the candidates will be nominated May 2-22 — Ed.).
Despite the fact that the elections will be held in only ten winner-take- all constituencies, the attendant political and information boom is impressive even now. Most experts believe that all this hubbub could have had at least two causes.
First is the quantitative aspect. Despite that fact that the parliamentary majority did take shape, its inner integrity and prospects remain highly problematic. The shakiness of this eclectic Verkhovna Rada structure makes it hostage to the interests of certain of its components: threats of withdrawal are now and then heard from various parliamentary faction and group leaders. In a situation when there is a permanent possibility of breakup by one or two factions constituting the majority, every seat becomes worth its weight in gold.
Second, one also cannot overlook the qualitative aspect. For certain domestic political reasons, there are a number of influential political figures without Deputy status: primarily large-scale business managers, administrators, former high officials, and people representing local business elite capable of building their respective careers within the Verkhovna Rada walls. What makes the whole intrigue exciting is the caliber of the potential candidates.
Evidence of this is found in lobby talk centering even now on who of the “has-beens” will be elected and in what constituency. Orest Krasivsky, leader of Lviv’s oblast organization of the Democratic Union, is known to have signaled the official write-off of [certain] constituencies. At a press conference held March 20 he said one of his fellow party members, former Minister of Information Zinovy Kulyk, could be nominated in Halych.
While that same Constituency No. 115 looks good for another contender, ex-Vice Speaker Viktor Musiyaka, Mr. Kulyk seems to stand a fair chance in Lviv, having support from the local authorities (mostly agrarian-affiliated) and a number of local media outlets. Local LPU and SDPU(o) organizations will also try to help. Even the Mayor, Vasyl Kuibida, could step in, for he has always kept his nose to the wind blowing from the Center.
Yet the situation is not so simple. Vasyl Kuibida, a veteran Rukh adherent, will have to reckon with what the party leadership and electorate will have to say. Many analysts believe that the strongest Rukh candidate is the late Chornovil’s son Taras. His last name and support from the powerful NRU-KUN-PROP rightist bloc with its numerically the strongest backing in Lviv could make Taras Chornovil one of the campaign’s front-runners. The more so that previously the constituency favored Rukh member Roman Shmidt. On the other hand, the traditional lack of coordination on the Right could well serve to weaken its position. One possible scenario says Andriy Sadovy, director of the Lviv Oblast Development Foundation and PRP fraction leader in the City Council, is actively preparing to run in the campaign. As a PRP sponsor, Mr. Sadovy is determined to run and win; word is spread in Lviv that his ambitions could net him the Mayor’s seat in the long run.
However, nominating several candidates in constituencies in which just one can win could reduce their chances, not so much in organizational terms (for the voting support being enjoyed by Taras Chornovil and Andriy Sadovy are not likely to overlap), as in terms of image-making; people’s disillusionment about the myth of the Right getting back together might work against the myth-makers. Fortunately, the local KUN organization insists its people will not run. Most likely, the nationalist effort will be concentrated on Ternopil oblast where constituency No. 167 become vacant due to Ivan Drach’s appointment as Chairman of the State Committee for Information Policy.
In 1998, Ivan Drach managed to squeeze by KUN activist Serhiy Zhyzhko by only 0.5%. Mr. Zhyzhko could count on victory after getting rid of his main adversary, the more so that the constituency’s bronze holder Myronchuk, Chairman of the Chortkiv District Council, is lagging behind the duet more than twofold. These heart-warming plans could be frustrated only by Ihor Bakai, ex- president of the powerful Naftohaz Ukrayiny oil and gas company if he decided to join the campaign (considering all the powerful financial and organizations resources behind him). He demonstrated his skill at winning with a broad margin in Kyiv oblast when vying for a major local executive post.
Yet there is also the possibility of Ihor Bakai taking an interest in another constituency, No. 64 in Zhytomyr. Made vacant after Yuri Yekhanurov joined the Cabinet, this constituency is known for the closeness of its vote figures, with regard to the front-runners. During the last parliamentary elections four candidates collected between 11 and 17 percent of the votes, among them chief editors of four regional newspapers: Vasylchuk of Rukh and editor of the Viche, and Yatskevych (Echo). Oleksandr Suhoniako, President of the Ukrainian Banking Association, could also throw his hat in the ring.
No less interesting to political analysts are the prospects of yet another has-been — Valery Pustovoitenko. Word has it that he has of late been actively promoted as the next Naftohaz president, yet his political future remains uncertain. Thus perhaps getting the head of the “party of power” NDP into Parliament (after all, Speaker Ivan Pliushch is also a member of the party) might be a good way for Mr. Pustovoitenko to save political face.
On the other hand, getting the mandate is anything but simple. While Premier, his performance in coping with the devastated Ukrainian economy could hardly make him popular with the poverty-stricken electorate. In this context, the right choice made by the constituency has as much importance as all the other attributes of the campaign technologies. The latest from reliable NDP sources has it that Valery Pustovoitenko might get support from Constituency No. 143 (Odesa oblast). If so, the choice can be easily explained: NDP member Serhiy Hrynevetsky, having collected 44% of the votes, heads the Odesa oblast administration.
Be it as it may, the special parliamentary elections are but an aspect to what is brewing in the regions, and the heat promises to get even higher with the municipal elections in Mykolayiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Vinnytsia. In Mykolayiv, special elections are due to nonpolitical circumstances (Mayor Mykola Oliynyk died this February), but in the other two cases the reason is the pitched political struggle underway within the regional elite. While Zaporizhzhia’s former mayor laid down his arms after losing a drawn-out [legal] confrontation with the local law enforcement, bureaucratic, and security bosses, his Vinnytsia counterpart, Dmytro Dvorkis (stunning political observers by his ability to balance on the verge of interests representing different, at times polarized forces) fell prey to his own political scheming. Having remained a People’s Deputy and Vinnytsia Mayor for two years, he managed not only to change his political affiliation, quitting Hromada, joining SDPU(o), and forming a Rebirth faction in the oblast council, but also getting in command over the whole territory during the presidential campaign.
There is every reason to expect the struggle for key local municipal posts to get even hotter. In view of the parliamentary elections, the most influential political groups will focus their effort on the regions. Technically, the regional state component of influence is among the most significant factors to be considered when planning nationwide political actions (referendums, elections, etc.). Thus being in control of local authorities becomes a number one strategic priority for all those holding key positions at the upper echelons of power. Perhaps this is one of the reasons why the SDPU(o) leadership will attempt to retain control over Vinnytsia. Here the former Dvorkis lieutenant, United Social Democrat Borys Vakhovsky, is considered the front-runner.
There is yet another nuance deserving separate note. Numerous political parties, believing that the early parliamentary elections will be held come what may, placed all their electoral reserves on red alert. Some have even ordered them engaged, however prematurely. In addition, the next parliamentary elections will be staged with competition of unprecedented severity. This will, of course, tempt many political groups to soon carry out field tests of the campaign strategies they have developed.
