The question implementing the referendum results will obviously be the main issue in Ukraine’s social and political life for at least the next several weeks. In view of the Constitutional Court ruling and PACE recommendations, the greatest importance will be attached to the mechanism and procedures of considering the items approved by the referendum, and to making appropriate decisions. Despite the outward lack of ambiguity, one can point to countless scenarios. At the moment, it is hard to say which is likely to be played out by the main players of the game, the President and Parliament.
The legal aspect was illustrated for The Day by People’s Deputy Oleksandr LAVRYNOVYCH:
“Provided all the Ukrainian legal norms are observed, the following scenarios seems most likely: all the items approved by the referendum must be implemented in keeping with Chapter 13 of the Constitution and other laws of Ukraine.
“Before submitting such bills, the President, as required by Article 159 of the Constitution, must refer them the Constitutional Court to see if they are really constitutional. As for the items included in the referendum, their formulation is, mildly speaking, far from constitutional. For example, the one about the President’s right to dissolve Parliament in case the Verkhovna Rada fails to form a stable and constantly operating majority within a month or approve a budget. Legally speaking, this can hardly claim the normative status.
“Considering the absence of a clear legal interpretation of the formula ‘constantly operating parliamentary majority,’ we will need a law on the parliamentary majority.
As for restricting parliamentary immunity, Mykola TOMENKO, director of the Institute of Politics, believes two options are possible: radical changes in the immunity status currently embracing over 7,000 public servants in Ukraine, or narrow restrictions implemented by introducing changes in certain bills.
Serhiy DATSIUK, expert with the Humanitarian Technologies Agency, considers that the President’s actions above all will determine Ukraine’s further political and legal situation.
“The situation will become more stable as the President proceeds to take better-considered and more consistent steps. Parliament is a body which is least of all interested in a decisive implementation of the referendum’s decisions. The main question after April 16 will be precisely how each of the referendum resolutions will be carried out. Debate will focus on the technical aspects, like how is one to go about setting up a bicameral Parliament? There are proposals from the President and several parliamentary groups. So far, no one can predict the course events will take.”
Meanwhile, President Kuchma voiced his hope on April 16 that Parliament will proceed to deliberate the referendum turnout the very next day, reports UNIAN. The Constitution, however, reads that such issues must be dealt with by the next session, using the constitutional majority of 300 votes. An important aspect: the compulsory decision-making procedures determined by Chapter 13 of the Constitution and other laws of Ukraine do not mean passing any a priori positive resolutions by Parliament. In other words, there is a likely possibility that the lawmakers will fail to pass some or all the referendum items this fall. Another thing is that constitutional amendments could be made, providing for a balance of powers between the executive and legislature.
There is yet another scenario that should not be readily dismissed: the President, acting as guarantor of the Constitution, applies political and legal levers to push through a “positive” resolution on the People’s Deputies, in which case the issue of dissolution and special parliamentary elections could resurface.
Thus another political confrontation seems likely to engulf Ukraine starting in September with proceedings to draw up constitutional amendments, which could lead to another conflict between President and Parliament ending in special elections to Verkhovna Rada. In the next couple of weeks the President and Parliament will make their first steps allowing one to judge, even at this stage, which way Ukraine’s political and legal situation will go after the referendum.
