Vladimir Putin has arrived. The new Russian and the remaining Ukrainian Presidents will meet today in Sevastopol. They say that Mr. Putin asked Mr. Kuchma by phone to arrange for the top-level meeting in that city currently accommodating the Russian Black Sea Navy. Our side agreed. Mr. Putin said Saturday that his trip to Sevastopol with Mr. Kuchma would be a very good gesture, showing that Ukraine and Russia are really cooperating in both the economic and military domains. The Tuesday before last, the Russian commander-in-chief said, “Russia will bring all its international commitments into conformity with its national security concept and that of construction of its national armed forces.” An ambiguous statement. In fact, no one feels quite sure what Mr. Putin had in mind. Quite possibly, loose-tie Kyiv-Moscow diplomacy will be replaced by the khaki variety.
Mr. Putin’s visit to Sevastopol was preceded by an active media campaign supervised by the Russian naval command using Ukrainian, Crimean, and its own channels and periodicals. Russian BSN Commander Vladimir Komoyedov suddenly came up with a political comment on Russian-Ukrainian relationships, something ordinarily not to be expected from an active general officer in any democratic country.
Thus, in an interview with Nezavisimaya gazeta, he voiced his personal dissatisfaction about Ukraine’s special partnership with NATO: “This sort of game cannot help but worry Russia, because such games by its ‘strategic partner’ cause our relationship to deadlock. Further, our strategic partner says the Ukrainian course is ‘faced toward Europe.’ Personally, I cannot but interpret this as ‘facing Europe with its rear end toward Russia.’ Such is the reality.” The Russian admiral also made it clear he disliked Ukraine’s enhanced control of the Russian forces [on its territory], so that every time [a Russian naval vessel] wanted to leave port it had to notify the Ukrainian authorities. Also, he believes that dual citizenship should be due all those commanding officers and admirals wishing, after years of meritoriously navigating their chairs as part of the Russian Navy, to spend their well-deserved old-age allowances basking in the Crimean sun. Finally, should one assume in theory that the Russian Navy will have eventually to leave Sevastopol, this unique city would cease to exist.
Needless to say, the Russian naval commander decided to make such ideas public not because he thought them pressing issues or was driven by his public duty.
On March 4 Vladimir Putin signed an edict defining Russia’s new Maritime Policy through 2010 along with documents such as “The Fundamentals of RF Politics in the Naval Sphere” covering the same period. Among other things, Russia considers as a national threat limited access to the world ocean’s resources and seas, international sea communications, especially in the Baltic and Black Sea. From the said documents it follows that Moscow will make serious efforts to achieve freedom of maritime operations in the Black and Caspian seas; unhindered passage for Russian naval vessels through the internationally navigable straits; strengthening the international legal status and support of the Russian Black Sea Navy. Consider another quote relating BSN: “...in view of the Navy’s regional location, independent infrastructures of the bases, shipbuilding and repair facilities, all types of logistics must be supported and developed, relying on the historically-shaped network of Russian cities serving as naval bases.”
Prior to Mr. Putin’s first foreign tour, the Russian Duma finally ratified START-2 In other words, the United States and Russia can now reduce their nuclear arsenals to 3,000-3,500 warheads each. This would seem to make any talk about collapsing nuclear and conventional arms control irrelevant. But this would only seem so. Ratifying START-2 was something Russia needed very badly, because it could no longer afford to keep up its 6,000 warheads. A Russian newspaper noted sarcastically, “Had START-2 not been ratified, the Americans could have destroyed us 15 times over, with us being able to strike just once in response.”
However, the START-2 implementation process is subject to a number of reservations pressed by Moscow. Russia will feel free not to observe the treaty if, for example, nuclear weapons are deployed on the territory of any countries joining NATO, or if the United States breaches the ABM Treaty. And the contractual obligations extend to nuclear as well as conventional armaments (as Mr. Putin ascertained later). What about the States? The New York Times reports that Washington, even though viewing Russia’s ratification of START-2 as a most significant recent event, will most likely disregard Moscow’s call for discarding the US national air defenses. The impression is that the two super- class prizefighters are about to join in a clinch. Here the only problem seems the absence of a duly qualified referee to order them to break and back up to their respective corners. And the fighters know this, taking their time preparing their bridgeheads well.
And then suddenly everybody remembers Ukraine. Kyiv is visited by British Foreign Secretary Robin Cook, followed by US State Secretary Madeleine Albright (she came a week earlier than expected). And this despite the fact that everybody knows: there are no reasons for praising Kyiv for any accomplishment. In any case, the ranking guests say their countries are prepared to support democratic reform in Ukraine. Ukraine is getting to be important as a self-sustained political factor, regardless of what is actually happening on the domestic political front, whether anything is done by way of reform or not. Without reform, Ukraine will cost the West more, but nothing compared to what it would have to lose if Ukraine went all the way back East. The United States, previously ignoring Ukraine’s GUUAM initiative, suddenly decides to allocate $37 million to strengthen border policies within this informal association. And everybody knows that strengthening GUUAM borders inevitably involves Russia.
Now after Robin Cook and Madeleine Albright it is Vladimir Putin’s turn to feel out Kyiv. A new major game is to start on the European chessboard, and no one will want to confuse black for white.
