His political career seemed to be over in 2005. Perhaps even his closest associates didn’t believe he would become the next President five years later. And yet he did it — fortunately or unfortunately is another matter. As of this day Viktor Yanukovych is the guarantor of the Constitution and Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. His photos will be displayed in all bureaucratic offices and he will address Season’s Greetings to the Ukrainian people for the next five years.
This morning Viktor Yanukovych will take his Oath (58 words) at the Verkhovna Rada, with his hand on the Constitution and Peresopnytsia Gospels.
Will it be the original Gospels, its copy, or what? People at the Party of Regions have been quoted as saying this doesn’t really matter, that the main thing is the sincerity of the statement, the more so that the law says nothing about swearing the oath of allegiance on the Gospels, that this is a matter of personal choice.
Getting back to the procedures. After Yanukovych signs the Oath, the chief justice of the Constitutional Court declares that, as of this moment, the authority vested in Viktor Yushchenko is over and that Viktor Yanukovych is now President of Ukraine. He will be handed the symbols of presidential authority: the presidential pectoral sign, the seal, and the mace. After that the national anthem will be performed and the new head of state will take his presidential seat. This actually ends the official ceremony.
Needless to say, there will be a great many guests at the Verkhovna Rada. According to
Foreign Minister Petro Poroshenko, there will be more foreign delegations than during Yushchenko’s inauguration. Most of the guests are flying to Kyiv this morning to depart in the evening. It is definitely known that among those present will be Russian Speaker Boris Gryzlov, Belarusian President Alexandr Lukashenko, Lady Catherine Ashton, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy.
Yulia Tymoshenko will not attend, of course, but some rank-and-file BYuT members will, being MPs and curious to watch the ceremony.
Routine work will start tomorrow. Whereas the Party of Region is in the initial phase of building a coalition, Viktor Yanukovych can appoint head of the Presidential Secretariat and Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (RNBO) right after inauguration.
Serhii Liovochkin is regarded as the most likely head of the Secretariat, the more so that the man has the right kind of experience as first presidential aide in 2002-05. Anna Herman is another likely one, although she insists this won’t happen, that moral satisfaction is the main thing for her.
Experts believe the current Vice Speaker Oleksandr Lavrynovych will be appointed as RNBO Secretary, while his seat in parliament will be occupied by the Communist Adam Martyniuk, an acknowledged expert on protocol.
Under the Constitution of Ukraine, the newly elected President can submit the defense and the foreign minister to the Verkhovna Rada even before forming a new propresidential coalition. Considering recent results, Yanukovych can have 226 votes. The Lytvyn Bloc and the Communists can add their votes to those of the Party of Regions, probably along with the Single Center (YeTs) and People’s Self-Defense (NS).
The Speaker s brother Mykola Lytvyn may become the new defense minister (he is currently Chairman of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine). Another candidate is Oleksandr Kuzmuk, the shadow cabinet's defense minister.
Among the candidate foreign ministers is the incumbent Petro Poroshenko, Ukrainian Ambassador to Russia Kostiantyn Hryshchenko, and Leonid Kozhara, the opposition government's foreign minister.
Yanukovych, however, doesn t seem sure who will receive what post at the moment. There is a strong likelihood that even the presidential quota will be haggled over when building a coalition.
Roman Zvarych told The Day: "If the Party of Regions makes a coalition with NUNS, Our Ukraine will take it all, leaving them with just Viktor Yanukovych."
Yanukovych will think this over tomorrow. Today he will celebrate his victory.
COMMENTS
The editors asked The Day s experts for recommendations, comments, and admonitions for the fourth President of Ukraine
Refat CHUBAROV, president, World Congress of Crimean Tatars:
"1. Before taking anyone s advice, the president shouldn t trust his old milieu to select his advisors, for they will invariably find like-minded individuals and will thus make it impossible for the head of state to see realities for what they really are.
2. Public confidence in the state is the underpinning principle of its well-being, the more so in the case of a multiethnic and multiconfessional state. Therefore, the new President should secure an equal dialog with all the ethnic and religious components of Ukrainian society, bearing in mind all their rights, interests, and values.
3. The Ukrainian state has every opportunity to occupy a place of note in the international community of nations, if and when it secures its inner unity. This unity can be achieved only after the norms of democracy and openness become predominant. Otherwise old mistakes will be repeated and the people will once again feel disappointed in their political leadership."
Viktor MARTYNOVYCH, deputy editor in chief, BelGazeta, Minsk:
"I live in a country where there is a division between the West and East, where Western candidates kept winning for a while, until a certain politician emerged in 1994. After that the Western vector started showing a downward curve. What happened to the union with the Poles in Belarus shows that the West is no longer seen in Belarus. I would recommend that Yanukovych bear in mind the existence of Western and Eastern Ukraine; the fact that democracy is considered to be important in one part of Ukraine, whereas in the other part importance is attached to collectivism and suchlike. He should remember that he is president of a country in which two kinds of mentalities coexist.
I would also like to remind him that attracting [foreign inland] investment is more important for Ukraine than keeping in power. By playing out the Belarusian scenario Yanukovych will keep in power, but Ukraine will become a backward country lacking investments and [progressive] technologies; it will turn into a third-world country, something I believe Yanukovych wouldn t want to happen."
Tamara GUZENKOVA, Ph.D. (History), senior research fellow, Russian Institute for Strategic Studies (RISI):
"In the first place, I would recommend that Viktor Yanukovych keep his campaign promises at all costs. No excuses like lacking votes in parliament, having the wrong kind of cabinet or lacking strong levers of power will work now. People who cast their ballots for him must see that their President is keeping his promises. Second, I wholeheartedly wish him to become the leader of the east, south, and the rest of Ukraine during his presidency. The Party of Regions and President will have to do a great many important psychologically refined things to secure a loyal and tolerant, if not affectionate, attitude to their policy. Another major recommendation: President Viktor Yanukovych of Ukraine and his government must carry out realistic and effective reforms. Such reforms, however unpopular, should begin literally in the next couple of days after inauguration.
I would like to warn the newly elected president against endless negotiations and attempts to reach a consensus with other political forces, for this would be a waste of time and energy. He must have clear-cut strategic objectives and rally his government with an eye to these objectives. He should not take half- or quarter-measures. His actions should be adequate to the threats currently faced by Ukraine. Nor should Yanukovych try to be popular all over the world. He shouldn t act like a bride who wants many bridegrooms. He should follow a strategic course, so those who won t like it will have to live with it."
Piotr KOSCINSKI, political writer, Rzeczpospolita, Warsaw:
"First of all, I would advise Viktor Yanukovych to remember that he is the president of entire Ukraine, i.e., both its eastern and western part, and to see the experience of other countries, including Poland. Several years ago we had an idea to be part of Europe. Poland is, in essence, Europe, but as a post-communist country it was outside the EU at the time. We have reached this goal through EU membership, and our economy is working well with some problems, but better than in neighboring countries.
I think that Mr. Yanukovych will have to find a similar idea that would unite people. Perhaps it can be the same idea of becoming an EU member, even though this desire is not altogether realistic now. The idea to join NATO can also be interesting.
Our newspaper carried an article about the village of Yanuky in Belarus. The old tombstones in its cemetery all carry inscriptions in Polish and read Janukowicz. Those were Roman Catholics.
I don t know whether Mr. Yanukovych has Polish roots, but this is quite possible.
There are close ties between Poland, Ukraine, and Belarus. Most Ukrainians have ties with Poland, just like most Belarusians are connected with Poland, while many Poles have links with Ukraine and Belarus. So it would be good if Mr. Yanukovych remembered about his roots and the fact that relations with Poland are also in Ukraine s interests."
Thomas GOMART, head of the Russie/NEI.Visions program, French Institute of International Relations, Paris:
"I believe that the economy will be the main challenge for the Ukrainian president, considering the deep economic crisis that has gripped Ukraine. In my opinion, he also has to restore the trust in Ukraine s ability to carry out a consistent economic policy. This strategy has to be developed with regard to the IMF, Europe, and Russia.
Another problem for the new president is restoring Ukraine s image abroad, because it has been seriously damaged by the decisions made by previous rulers and their infighting. It is clear that Ukraine needs to restore its image, reputation, and trust abroad.
Regarding the warning that Yanukovych is not a new politician, I should say that he was the prime minister under Leonid Kuchma. In view of the fact that he comes from eastern Ukraine, the Donetsk clan, it is quite clear that he is close to certain tycoons, but he should avoid becoming a tool in their hands. I mean his ties with large business. He has to be an all-Ukrainian politician.
I wish to him that Ukraine s economy would restore fairly rapidly and that Ukrainians would be able to choose their own way, while being cautious at the same time."
