After the first round of parliamentary elections in Lithuania that took place these days, a lot of people are wondering if the country is going to become closer to Moscow, or if it will happen the other way around. According to the preliminary results, Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius’ conservative party Homeland Union – Lithuanian Christian Democrats is only the third, with 15.02 percent of votes (13 seats). This happened despite the fact that the conservatives had fought financial crisis rather successfully, which earned them recognition and respect from the EU and IMF for “frugality and discipline.” Nevertheless, ordinary people resented Kubilius’ belt-tightening policy and were disappointed by it. Lithuanians believed the populism of the left and voted for them. According to the data provided by the Central Election Commission, the Labor Party, headed by the millionaire of Russian descent Viktor Uspaskich, got 19.87 percent of votes (17 seats), and the Social Democratic Party received 18.44 percent of votes (15 seats). A total of seven parties are going to form the new parliament.
The Vilnius-based political expert Lauras BIELINIS said in his telephone interview to The Day that the result of these elections can be viewed as positive. “All main parties, left as well as right ones, got approximately even numbers of votes. So, the Seimas (Parliament) will not be overwhelmed by one dominant political force. All important matters should be solved jointly, through mutual concessions, if needed.”
But according to the director of the Institute for Foreign Policy of Estonia and the University of Tartu, professor Andres Kazekamp, the result of these elections poses a threat for the Baltic countries. “Andrus Ansip, Valdis Dombrovskis, and Andrius Kubilius [prime ministers of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. – Ed.] formed a Baltic Dream Team,” Kazekamp said. According to him, the three prime ministers were unanimous in the matters of mutual trust, personal and professional points of view, and all three of them shared the same goal. At the same time, Kazekamp said he was afraid that the new coalition would stop the Baltic cooperation and allocate less money for defense and joint projects, like the construction of the nuclear power plant or Rail Baltic (railway that will connect Western Europe and Baltic countries).
Lithuania will not be able to avoid the reduction of the austere economy policy. However, no abrupt changes are expected. “Firstly, because the relations with the European Union are at stake. Secondly, budget policy will not tolerate abrupt changes. And thirdly, social democrats themselves will be too cautious to change economic and social policies too fast. The new government will not rush, so the belt-tightening policy will be loosened slowly and gradually,” Bielinis says.
JUICY ARGUMENTS
The left have always positioned themselves as a political force which is closer to the ordinary people. According to Bielinis, due to the constant growth of taxes, Lithuanians came to a realization that they had to vote for those, who would pay attention to their problems. In their campaign, social democrats, for example, stressed the importance of both reforms and problems of the people. “The pension level is the same as it was before the belt-tightening policy implementation,” Bielinis says. “The left promise such things as reducing the bureaucratization of the state institutions. On the other hand, a lot of social problems have emerged not because of the crisis, but because the administration and government pay attention to some remote and large strategic projects. Such simple things as health care are left for later. However, it is a very important sphere for Lithuania’s population, especially for retirees. The sphere of education is not perfect either. Teachers’ salaries are low, students have to go far to remote schools, etc.”
But he is rather skeptical when it comes to promises given by the left. “The Labor Party abused imagination when they promised an average monthly wages of 1,500 litas and a considerable increase in the number of jobs,” Bielinis continues. “It is impossible to increase the wages this much in such a short term, the budget will not cope with it. However, the voters believed this juicy argument from the pre-election campaign.”
According to another political expert, associate professor for the Vilnius University Aine RAMONAITE, the Labor Party was trying to convince the voters that “it consists of career politicians, competent enough to solve people’s problems.” And the main slogan of the party was that they “know how to cope with the country’s public affairs.” At the same time, social democrats, headed by Algirdas Butkevicius, state about the importance of “the well-being of each citizen” and promise to improve the welfare and judiciary systems. “It seems that instead of having different ideological beliefs, the leading parties try to show off with their competence of leading economic and political affairs,” Ramonaite complained to The Day.
ELECTION RESULTS AND RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA
The results of the election did not surprise anyone in Lithuania. According to Ramonaite, six months ago opinion polls already showed that socialists and laborists would win the elections. However, she does not consider these elections to be a failure for the ruling coalitions. “On the one hand, some parties showed rather good results. For example, the Liberal Movement got even more votes than they did four years ago. The Homeland Union received a smaller amount of votes, but it was still the most popular in the largest cities: Vilnius and Kaunas,” she noted.
The real result of the vote will be known after the second round, which is scheduled for October 28. A total of 71 MPs will be chosen in single-ticket constituencies. The main intrigue of the Lithuanian elections is the following: who will replace Kubilius and become the new head of the government? Viktor Uspaskich seems to be the most likely candidate. “He is thinking about this post. However, the president will not be too happy to have him as prime minister, therefore, I do not think Uspaskich will become the new head of the government,” shares Ramonaite. “Butkevicius, the leader of the social democrats, seems to be the most realistic option. But at the same time, I do not expect any dramatic changes in the government policy. Its main vector is rather simple.”
The way the origin of the Labor leader is going to affect the complicated relations between Vilnius and Moscow is quite intriguing as well (some experts openly call him pro-Russian), considering the gas factor. And who knows, maybe, it will not affect the relations at all.
Bielinis says: “Uspaskich has been a prime minister before, and we have seen his diligence in defending Lithuania’s interests. Of course, he has connections with Russia, but in my opinion, Russian administration looks at him with caution. The relations between Lithuania and Russia will not change if Uspaskich becomes a prime minister or one of the government ministers, but because social democrats and the Labour Party view relations with Russia in a more liberal way.”
Ramonaite is of the same opinion that Bielinis. She believes that the Labor leader will build the relations with Russia on “pragmatic ground.” “Left-wing parties are more pragmatic and cautious. Uspaskich thinks in the same key. Given his origin, he might have warm feelings towards Russia, of course. But I do not believe that Lithuania’s foreign policy will veer from west to east. Should Uspaskich want to do this, he will face difficulties. The other parties will not let him, and such policy will not find support with the Lithuanian population,” believes Ramonaite.
Speaking with The Day, Ramonaite also said that there is a certain “rule” in post-communist countries: “the parties in power always lose elections.” Soon Ukrainians will see if this is really so.
