The events in Ukraine, especially near its southeastern borders, after the annexation of Crimea by Russia, are in the limelight on the global scale. Every day world media publish a lot of articles about the situation in Ukraine. Intelligence services watch the development of events in this region even more closely. On March 27, referring to the representatives of the US military intelligence service, CNN noted that the probability of Russia’s military invasion on the territory of eastern Ukraine is higher than it was thought before. America’s intelligence thinks that Russian troops will be moving in the direction of three Ukrainian cities: Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk, in order to connect their territory with Crimea on land.
If the intelligence service watches the situation around Ukraine closely, influential American periodicals ponder on how the US and the West should act in this situation. An editorial by The Washington Post, “We Must Prepare for a Long Struggle with Russia,” is very indicative in this sense.
In particular, the periodical notes that the best way to stop Russia’s invasion in Ukraine would be firmer statements of president Obama, German chancellor Angela Merkel, and other leaders than the ones previously made by them on “what economic sanctions will be leveled against Russia in the event of an incursion.” Besides, the newspaper emphasizes that the determination of the implementation of economic sanctions should be declared right now so the Kremlin knows about it.
The Washington Post also points out that Western leaders should declare that any Russia’s attempt to disrupt Ukrainian economy or political system is unacceptable and will prompt sanctions as surely as would a military attack. “The United States and its allies must be ready to sustain a resolute policy for an extended period, to accept economic sacrifices and to forgo easy compromises that would sacrifice the self-determination of Ukraine and its neighbors, democracy or human rights. Mr. Putin’s Russia may not be equal to the Soviet Union, but the defeat of his aggression is anything but a foregone conclusion,” writes the newspaper.
Robert Gates writes about the necessity of a long-term strategy of fight against Russia on the pages of The Wall Street Journal. Gates served as a Secretary of Defense under presidents George Bush Jr. and Barack Obama from 2006 to 2011, and as a CIA director under president Bush Sr. from 1991 to 1993. In an article “Putin’s Challenge to the West. Russia Has Thrown Down a Gauntlet That Is Not Limited to Crimea or Even Ukraine” he emphasized: “The only way to counter Mr. Putin’s aspirations on Russia’s periphery is for the West also to play a strategic long game. That means to take actions that unambiguously demonstrate to Russians that his worldview and goals – and his means of achieving them – over time will dramatically weaken and isolate Russia.”
Gates writes: “the burden of explaining the need to act forcefully falls, as always, on our leaders. As President Franklin D. Roosevelt said, ‘Government includes the act of formulating a policy’ and ‘persuading, leading, sacrificing, teaching always, because the greatest duty of a statesman is to educate.’ The aggressive, arrogant actions of Vladimir Putin require from Western leaders strategic thinking, bold leadership, and steely resolve – now.”
The Day asked Hryhorii PEREPELYTSIA, Doctor of Political Sciences, conflict resolution expert, professor at the Taras Shevchenko Kyiv National University to comment upon the latest publications in the American press in regard to the possible long-term fight against Russia.
“FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE END OF THE COLD WAR, THE WEST STARTED PERCEIVING RUSSIA AS A THREAT, NOT AS A PARTNER”
“These statements signify the change of positions and approaches, both in Europe and the United States. Before, there was a dominating partnership opinion of the Western European leaders and the US that Russia was a strategic partner in overcoming global threats, which the world, and the West in particular, faces. But this aggression changed the paradigm and the general approaches.
“This means that for the first time since the end of the Cold War, the West started perceiving Russia not as a partner, but as a threat of global nature. By this war Russia brought up an issue of reviewing the results of the Cold War and the renewal of Russia’s domination in Europe to the level of the Soviet Union. Virtually, this is the restoration of the Cold War, but on a local level. Putin has set a task of not only restoring Russia’s dominance over Europe, but revising the whole world order. Putin deliberately destroys international law as a whole and all international security regulations which were created after the end of the Cold War. He brings up a matter of a complete reformatting of the global order. So, this will have global consequences, with impact comparable to the results of the World War II, when all systems of international security, such as the UN, OSCE, or international regulations, will be destroyed by Russia. This poses a threat of international chaos for the global community, since international law which regulates relations between countries will be lost. Because of this, whole regions might appear in Asia that will not be controlled by international law. They will not reckon with the interests of other countries, and it will turn into the global destabilization of the world. The comprehension of such consequences is gradually coming to the US and European leaders. This is shown by the publications in the leading American newspapers mentioned above.
“This is a very positive sign for Ukraine. Before, this aggression was considered to be a local conflict, which could be settled by imposing sanctions and holding negotiations. But we see that these sanctions turned out to be completely inadequate. Even economic sanctions do not scare Russia. According to the last public opinion poll, 64 percent of Russians are absolutely convinced that even the implementation of economic blockade by the United States will have no consequences for their lives. They are completely sure that Russia must be a world power dictating its terms to the rest of the world.”
But in his speech in Brussels Obama called Russia a regional state, then Russia was suspended from the G8 and the next G7 summit will take place not in Sochi, as it was planned, but in Brussels. It is promised to expel Russia from other international organizations. Does the West not have the resources to restrain Russia’s desire?
“Yes, the West has powerful resources, but they are not involved to the necessary extent today. That is, to the extent that would make Russia stop in its aggression and abide by the rule of the international law. So far, the implementation of these sanctions has no effect whatsoever, because it is not Putin or his entourage that want this revenge, but the whole Russian society. And we see this in public opinion polls, in the mass psychosis, the subconscious behavior of Russians, their evaluation of the international situation, their attitude towards Ukraine. They are absolutely convinced that they have a right to not only annex Crimea, but to make whole Ukraine join Russia. There is also an opinion that Central Europe must join Russia as well, because they had military presence there once, despite the fact that it has been integrated into NATO and the European Union long ago. We see that the public opinion in Russia does not take these facts into consideration at all. They are intoxicated with a desire of revenge.”
“THERE IS AN ACTUAL FASCIST REGIME IN RUSSIA, WHICH IS CALLED PUTINISM”
But the public opinion in Russia is formed by the government via mass media, which are engaged in propaganda instead of informing people.
“This does not matter. We have an actual fascist regime in Russia today, which is called Putinism. And in a fascist regime, both society and government think in terms of the same revenge-seeking goals and interests. That is why I do not separate Russian society from the government under such a regime. Because in fascist regimes, government and society merge.”
So, no changes are possible while Putin is still there? But he will not live forever. Yanukovych also thought he would rule forever.
“Such a leader will be there until Russia faces resistance, be it a military kind, or a complete collapse of their economy and finance. When famine and chaos break out in Russia, we will be able to say that Russia can stop. Or it must be a military defeat, full or partial. Nothing else will stop Putin.
“As we have seen, Hitler’s regime lasted for 13 years, and the creation of a fascist regime in Russia started with Putin’s second presidential term, or in other words, after the Orange Revolution. As a rule, we see that such regimes do not last for more than 20 years.”
What steps should we expect from the West and the United States to stop Putin from assaulting Ukraine, considering that the US military intelligence notified the Congress that “the threat of the further Russian invasion is more likely than it was previously thought”?
“Indeed, the primary issue now is to stop Russia’s military aggression on the continental part of Ukraine. And this is not only our domestic issue, but it directly affects Europe and the US. So far, neither NATO nor the European Union are ready for appropriate actions that could stop Russia. That is why we can only put faith in ourselves, our armed forces, additional mobilization, which we do not see, unfortunately. The holding of elections can be endangered. But the main task is to prevent the military threat, provide military resistance to Russia’s eventual aggression during its second stage, since the first one ended with the occupation of Crimea.”
