Russian President Vladimir Putin’s early December visit to Turkey raised a lot of questions, chief among them being the following: will Turkey undermine the sanctions regime imposed on the Kremlin? Will it stick to its line of protecting the Crimean Tatars in the Russian-annexed Crimea? Let us recall that the Russian president closed the South Stream gas pipeline project and said that it would be redirected to Turkey. Meanwhile, he also promised to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a whole bunch of preferences. These include, in particular, a 6 percent discount on gas supply, additional 3 billion cubic meters of gas for this winter, as well as increased Russian procurement of Turkish vegetables and fruits.
The Day asked president of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies Oleksandr BOHOMOLOV to comment on Putin’s visit.
“The Erdogan administration will try to build a profitable relationship with Russia. It seems that the Turks desire to take advantage of the crisis in the region and increase their energy capabilities. The EU officials’ visit to Turkey was a momentous event as well, resulting in certain agreements. Therefore, the Turks do not want to choose a side in the conflict which has Russia on the one side and the EU and Ukraine on the other. Turkey is trying to make deals and benefit from it.”
How dangerous is cooperation between Turkey and Russia for Ukraine and the Black Sea region as a whole?
“The Black Sea region has always experienced a latent conflict. It is now open, everything fell into place and no cooperation is possible. Some countries are on one side, others are their opponents. The South Stream is effectively closed at the moment, and its drivers are launching a new initiative. Common interests arise against the energy needs background. Otherwise, the Black Sea nations have nothing in common.”
Back when Erdogan was the prime minister, he said that Turkey would not just turn away and leave the Crimean Tatars in trouble.
“He has to speak this way to keep his popularity with Turks from gradually decreasing. Of course, public opinion in his country is on the side of the Crimean Tatars, but it is clear that Erdogan is not going to do anything drastic to help them.”
However, the Turkish press says that the question of the Crimean Tatars did not come up during Erdogan’s meeting with Putin. Can we say that Turkey is ready to “forget” about it in exchange for Russian trade preferences?
“These things are not commensurate. The Turks do not want to irritate Russia, because they want to have an open relationship in the economic sphere. Still, it cannot be called an ‘exchange.’ The English-speaking nations have a proverb about apples and oranges which should not be considered in the same format. Turkey’s stance on the Ukrainian conflict is affected by security issues as well, by its ‘domestic’ conflicts. They have a higher priority for the Turks, and the country cannot afford to be distracted by something else. First of all, it is the Syrian Civil War, which has seen Syria ceasing to function as a state as it has turned into a cluster of various armed groups which are fighting each other. At a minimum, this implies a huge refugee crisis and the constant threat of war for Turkey. On the other hand, they have to contend with the Kurdish problem, which is worsened by the influx of refugees. These issues are very important for Turkey, and it does not want to squander its energies by actively participating in other conflicts nearby.”
Turkish newspaper Zaman described conditions for Putin’s visit thus: Turkey was offended at the EU’s stance and “intoxicated by the warm air that blew from the Kremlin...” How would you comment on this?
“It is just rhetoric. For Turkey, relations with the EU and NATO are very important. Russia has no genuine sympathizers in Turkey. Their contacts are limited to the level of economic interests, so nobody feels any ‘warm air’ or ‘breath.’ As for the EU, it is a more interesting partner for Turkey, especially since the EU has more to offer it and greater leverage to use with it. The Turkish-European integration prospects are being discussed again. Still, how serious are they? Many of my European interlocutors said that Turkey would never be part of the EU, even though the opposite view has its supporters as well. However, these negotiations with the EU may bring new preferences for Turkey. Nevertheless, President Erdogan is not that pro-European himself. It has some effect on his style of politics, meetings and contacts, but it cannot change the reality of Turkey’s important political and economic ties with the EU.”
