It is with mixed feelings that I am writing about Vladimir Putin’s press conference. On the one hand, I have something to say. On the other… Are Ukraine, Georgia, and other countries perhaps paying too much attention to what is going on in Moscow?
Naturally, I am against informational isolationism. I mean that a part of the Ukrainian, Georgia, and Russian public associates further developments with the Kremlin only. Of course, very much depends on the Kremlin – but not everything. There have been too many texts in the last while, which establish linkage between the improvement of the situation and the economic problems of Russia. Let me underline it – of Russia, not of the Kremlin regime.
The trouble is not that hopes for Russia to slow down its expansion as a result of the current events are illusory. The trouble is that victims of the aggression believe that its cessation is conditional on what is going on in the enemy country rather than in their own one. Meanwhile, Georgia has already lost the peace game. Ukraine is facing the same danger. Focusing on the Kremlin’s true or imaginary problems, people thus admit that they no longer rely on their own resistance potential. And, what is more, they are afraid to honestly admit the real state of affairs in their countries.
This is the first and foremost thing. The logic of this reasoning is simple and straightforward: the smaller economic resource Moscow has, the less expansionistic it will be. It is very strange. Stalin had a small resource when he started the Cold War. And why do they think there will be a smaller resource? And why do they think the Kremlin will retain a market economy? And does anybody still think that those in the Kremlin who wield real power are concerned about the condition of the country and its population? All they need is instruments to exercise power and wage a war which is indispensable, above all, for this purpose.
But this situation is particular. The current problems, which encourage giving up a free market, are leading to still greater aggressiveness. Russia may be weakening, but the political regime is gaining strength and will speed up its external expansionism in all forms and at any bank rate, even if it is zero.
Obviously, the ruling elite are seizing more power and property inside the country. What caused the latest dive of the ruble was a very simple move of Rosneft which converted the given freshly-printed rubles. Putin and his friends continue to squeeze all they can from the market economy, but nothing will stop them if, to save what they squeezed, they have to give up the free market – with all the grave consequences that this will have for the economy and the populace.
The current lull, accompanied with news splashes about the Kremlin abandoning the Novorossia project (Stanislav Belkovsky) and leaving the Donbas (Yevgenia Albats), can be explained by the fact that it is just the right time now to concentrate power in the hands of a very small group of people. Putin’s evasive answers to Ukrainian journalists’ questions at the press conference mean that we should not expect changes for the better.
The Kuban Governor Tkachev put himself in an awkward situation by saying a day before the press conference that Russia’s economic problems were a retribution for the annexation of Crimea. Putin had been always saying that all Russia’s troubles were caused not by this occupation but by the schemes of the entire world which did not want the Russian nation to strengthen. At the press conference, Putin openly reprimanded Tkachev for failure to toe the line.
The Kremlin has problems with Crimea just because of its own attitude to the world outside the Kremlin wall. I think I know now why Moscow is rushing to turn Crimea into a huge nuclear weapons base. Those behind the wall are fearful of Crimean separatism – not pro-Ukrainian or Crimean Tatar but Crimean. The populace, which took part at least in mass-scale protests against Ukraine, if not in the revolt, will not be considered loyal to Russia.
And it does not matter that those protests were organized from the outside. There is a simple idea in the Kremlin’s rotten brains (I used to say “rotten Chekist brains,” but “Kremlin’s” is better): if we managed to stir them up, the Americans will also do so. The Crimeans are doomed to be second-rate in Russia. This was called “lack of political trust” in Soviet newspeak.
The dispute with Governor Tkachev, in the absence of the latter, was the only instance of disagreement between Putin and one of his officials. Russia’s crucial changes have always been inside the elite. Putin confirmed that all Cabinet and Central Bank offices were held by the right people. Yet there was a great deal of talk about proposals to serve. The impression was that some “people of status” had all gone mad and rushed to offer Putin their services in order to “give him an algorithm for finding a way out of the situation” and grant him the “status of a politician who will lead Russia to Europe.” One who made people laugh with this was Alfred Koch who is forced to abide in Bavaria because he is being prosecuted in Russia on a smuggling charge. Besides, there are enough jesters inside the country.
In my view, we are on the eve of a big… No, not row, for things are going as planned. We are on the eve of a big reconciliation between the progressive public and the authorities. And this is directly opposite to humility, of which I always speak.
Let me remind you of a universally known fact: the word “humility” did not originally have the connotations of passivity and inactivity. On the contrary, it was about the deeds that correlated with one’s abilities.
And, what is more, it was not about the inner world of man, nor did it mean man’s reconciliation with evil – even “in line with his conscience” – because there is a quick inner evolution in such cases. Humility suggests reflection and an answer to the question about you – about your own inner condition and deeds. Therefore, it lays the groundwork for being able to face the truth. The Russian progressive public is totally deprived of the ability and necessity to reflect, so verbal aggression against the world order can easily give way to the approval of it. There are examples galore.
As for those who do not offer their services but are tormented with the eternal Russian question “What is to be done?” the answer to them is simple. Nothing is to be done or even thought about this. This is in fact the main and dangerous Russian neurosis. The more people understand that it is not their country or state, and they have nothing of their own here, the better. As long as there is no understanding of this, all the actions will be hysterical, idiotic, and, in the long run, in favor of the current government which is the most “people-concerned” in the entire history of Russia.
In the past epochs there were behavior rules for the loser and a code of honor for the defeated one. (Some peoples still have them.) It is now badly needed in Russia, Ukraine, and Georgia. The goal of this code is to preserve dignity and intellectual honesty. If you lose them, you will never become a winner. And God forbid you become one – there is nothing worse than a victory of defective and mendacious people which many losers turn into.
Dmitry Shusharin is a Moscow-based historian and political journalist
COMMENTARIES
“THE KREMLIN HAS NOT SENT ANY NEW SIGNALS”
Andreas UMLAND, German political analyst:
“It seems to me that Vladimir Putin tried to deny that Russia had serious economic problems. He tried to present it as a transition period, and quoted some positive statistics. This, of course, may well come back to bite him later. The economic crisis may turn out to be deeper than expected, and his words would certainly seem strange then.
“I would like to mention one detail: he stated that the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) did not want to comply with a special protocol and withdraw its troops. This may be a signal that Russia may yet be ready to return the Donbas to Ukraine and reduce its support for the separatists.
“Putin said that Petro Poroshenko wanted peace, but the DNR was still not ready to put the Minsk Protocol into practice. It strikes a strange note, and the Donetsk separatists are probably less than fully happy with it now. It may be also a signal that he will still try to take measures likely to reduce sanctions imposed on Russia in the future. However, we have seen no concessions from Putin so far. Even so, many journalists asked questions related to the economic situation, and, of course, the lifting of the sanctions, or at least some of them, would help stabilize the situation in Russia.
“Now to the allegedly existing NATO promises not to expand, which in fact were never given, as well as the thesis that the West is encircling the bear and planning to declaw and defang it before hanging out its skin as a trophy. These are old arguments, but some people in the West do, unfortunately, believe they are true. They spoke about a fascist junta before, now NATO is seen as a threat, and the EU has come to be seen as one at some point... This external threat is always changing. It is made to look like Putin protects the sovereignty, identity, and even the very existence of Russia.
“More to it, explaining the Crimea annexation as a defense of sovereignty is a clear case of logical paradox, as they propose the notion of defensive expansion. This, of course, is done for the Russian public’s benefit. I do not think they hope to impress anyone in the West.
“I do not believe that the press conference will have any impact on the coming meeting of the European Council in Brussels. So far, the Kremlin has not offered any new ideas or sent any new signals. The West is waiting to see some definitive statements from Putin on changing his Donbas policy at least.
“The sanctions now in force are likely to stay until some significant changes in the Donbas happen. It also looks like some sanctions relating to Crimea will remain in effect for a long time.
“It has turned out that this summer’s minor, limited sanctions are now having a significant impact on the Russian economy in conjunction with the falling oil prices. Thus, I do not expect any significant new sanctions to be imposed, just prolongation of the old ones.”
Interviewed by Mykola SIRUK, The Day
“PUTIN HAS NO EXIT STRATEGY FOR THE ONGOING CRISIS”
Volodymyr HORBACH, political analyst at the Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation:
“Putin said nothing new, maybe except his praise for Petro Poroshenko. This move is designed to stimulate splits within the Ukrainian elites, divide the Ukrainian government into ‘peace doves’ and ‘war hawks,’ the latter apparently led by the newly appointed secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksandr Turchynov.
“The rest of Putin’s messages offered repeats of his long-known statements. They reflect Putin’s worldview which he is trying to impose on the world itself, his understanding of the causes and consequences of the current events in the Donbas, elsewhere in Ukraine, and in Russia itself, including the currency, economic and financial crisis, which it is plunging into.
“Regarding Putin’s behavior at the press conference in general, he looked very unconvincing. His messages were unconvincing not only for his TV audience, but also for the assembled journalists. The applause was very sparse and timid, and some of his answers did not prompt it at all. Putin was in a difficult situation, as the press conference was held with the fall of the ruble and panic on the currency and consumer markets of Russia in the background. These events are not conducive for respecting authority.
“Putin neither sacrificed any member of his team, nor announced personnel changes in the Russian Central Bank or the Cabinet. He did not even name currency speculators, that is, he took full responsibility for the crisis instead of blaming anyone, as he said responding to a Ukrainian reporter’s question.
“It means that Putin is responsible for Russia’s actions in the Donbas as well. By taking the blame, Putin alleviated moral suffering of Russians, but he did not absolve them of responsibility at all.
“Apparently, Putin feels pushed into a corner and sees no exit from it, for he did not offer one to his audience. He will just wait until his opponents in this confrontation make an exploitable error. Putin has no exit strategy for the ongoing crisis.”
Interviewed by Ihor SAMOKYSH, The Day
