The Kremlin seems to be so eager to spite the West in general and America in particular that it fails to properly calculate the immediate consequences of its actions. Moscow saw the conflict in Yemen as an opportunity to gain footing in the south of the Arabian Peninsula and attempt to regain, in one way or another, the sway it has lost after the collapse of the USSR.
The second, barely disguised goal, was to fuel a newly started civil war from Aden to Sana’a. An obvious foreign interference with a hope that the events would provoke a rise of oil prices, which Russia’s budget needs so badly.
Third, after the sanctions Iran will require a profound modernization, first and foremost in oil production and the reconstruction of the petrochemical industry. Clearly, many firms would love to join the process before it is too late. Russia has such enthusiasts, too.
Then, as we have already mentioned, the Kremlin seems to think it has seen an opportunity to square accounts with the West for its support of Ukraine, sanctions, and all the rest, so vividly described by Vladimir Putin during his recent question-and-answer session with his subjects. For lack of a better option, the Kremlin announced the resumption of the deal with Iran, by which the latter should receive S-300 anti-aircraft missiles.
It remains unclear when such complexes can be physically delivered. Aleksandr Golts, a military commentator, noted in Yezhednevny Zhurnal, a web daily: “A separate question remains, if Russia is able to promptly fulfill this contract. Those S-300 complexes [S-300 PMU-1. – Author] which were earmarked for Iran in 2007, have long been salvaged. The capacities of the JSC Company Concern Almaz-Antey are occupied by the production of a totally new S-400 system. Consequently, the only remaining possibility to fulfill the Iranian contract would be to provide Tehran with the missiles currently operational in the Russian army. This means, however, that Russia must rapidly produce enough more advanced systems for arming five battalions. So far, Almaz-Antey cannot boast of such speed.” Pavel Sozinov, the concern’s chief designer, said in his interview with InterfaxAVN that a fifth-generation S-500 anti-aircraft system has been developed, and its production is about to be launched. It should replace the previous S-400 version in the near future. As we see, the concern is working hard to fulfill at least the current orders.
Nevertheless, according to Army General Yurii Yakubov, coordinator for the inspectors general directorate under Russia’s defense ministry, the ministry will “promptly carry out the president’s instructions.” Interfax reckons that it could take several months. Should Iran prefer an improved, but more expensive, Antey-2500 system (S-300VM), the preparation and implementation of such a deal might take at least 18 months.
Let us now consider the international repercussions of Putin’s decision.
Of course, Tehran is happy. Iran’s Defense Minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehghan traveled to Moscow, officially to participate in a conference on international security under the auspices of Russia’s defense ministry. It goes without saying that he will be also seeing his Russian counterpart Sergey Shoygu. The Iranian minister put it bluntly: “The issue is settled. We have a deal, now we are discussing the terms of delivery.”
Iran might be pleased, but Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies are pissed off. Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said that S-300 systems would help reinforce Iran’s anti-aircraft defense in the light of the developments in Yemen. Given that Yemen has been the scene of combat involving the Arabian monarchies on the one hand and Iran on the other, Moscow is pushing it towards a war with its Arabian neighbors.
Putin’s decision is very unwelcome both in Europe and in America. Israel’s response is understandable and predictable. Iran has not given up its intentions to destroy the Jewish state. Reinforcement of its defense capacities, according to the deterrence theory, could cause Tehran to believe that it is well-protected. This, however, could be a provoking factor. The S-300 deal is quite likely to inspire the feeling of invulnerability in ayatollahs. Besides, there is another point. Moscow is indignant at America deploying its anti-missile defense in Europe. The name speaks volumes. Why is the Kremlin so enthusiastic to reinforce Iran’s defensive capabilities, and why does it insist on doing so? Americans and Europeans may not do anything like that, but Russians can, in Iran.
Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu personally expressed his resentment in a phone conversation with President Putin. According to the Israeli prime minister’s office, he told Putin that this step “will cause the increase of Iran’s aggression in the region and undermine security in the Middle East.” In his turn, Russia’s president tried to assure the Israeli leader that the missile complex has an exclusively defensive application.
The future delivery of S-300 to Iran will not remain unanswered. In the Republican-dominated US Congress there is a strong opposition to the Iran nuclear deal. In the course of events President Obama had to give in both to the Representatives and the Senators. It was agreed that the president should send the text of the Iran deal to the Congress for consideration. Formally, Obama had the right to send the bill without a further agreement, yet he agreed to make some concessions. Moreover, the president undertook an obligation to report to the Congress every three months on the implementation of the deal. The American media have already called this Obama’s defeat. In the context of the unfolding presidential campaign, both parties’ candidates will demonstrate tough foreign policies. The Congress will support them, correspondingly. So, the deal on Iran’s nuclear program is not going so smooth, and a lot of things may happen by late June, when the final deal is to be signed. The Obama administration’s relations with Israel have become considerably chiller. In contrast to that, the Congress Republicans might demand to change these policies, using the available legislative tools to influence the president.
In his turn, having formed a new government, Israel will start the revision of its Russian policy, as well as Ukrainian.
To begin with, Netanyahu is not going to Moscow on May 9. The formal excuse is religious considerations and the need to personally take part in the formation of the government. However, the reasons are quite easy to see.
Until recently, Tel Aviv had had an exceptionally neutral stand concerning the developments in Ukraine and Russia’s involvement in them. Moscow’s actions were not supported on the diplomatic level, but Kyiv’s wishes were not met either. In particular, in the sphere of military and technical cooperation. Now, with Putin’s decision, the situation can change considerably.
There are certain foundations for such a turn. Ukrainian special military and police service units have been equipped with guns modeled after the Israeli-made Tavor assault rifle. These guns, in army and civil modifications, were manufactured by Fort plant in Vinnytsia. In his interview to Forbes Ukraine Hennadii Nadolenko, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Israel, said that “it is not forbidden to purchase defensive means in Israel.” In particular, the diplomat noted that Israeli-made gear and communication equipment can be mounted on Ukrainian-made vehicles.
The possibility of providing Ukraine with Israeli-made drones is being extensively discussed in Israel. In Moscow, Putin reacted rather jumpily to such a possibility.
In his interview to the program Saturday News with Sergey Brilev on Russia One the Russian leader said that the “Israeli government has the right to act as it deems appropriate,” but this step was counterproductive. “Because it will only result in sending the conflict up to a new level. In a higher death toll, while the result will be the same.”
Why worry then, if the result remains the same? Obviously, Israeli weapons would considerably reinforce the Ukrainian army. In particular, their drones are among the world’s best. They may raise the resistance capability of Ukraine’s military manifold. And then the unreplenishable resource comes to the foreground: time. To a certain extent, it works for Ukraine and, consequently, against Russia. For Moscow, a dragged-out war is economically disadvantageous. War is an excessively costly business, especially when Western banks have effectively cut off loans for Russian entrepreneurs. On top of that, the situation at home is more worrying than abroad.
Igor Litvak, an Israeli columnist, said: “Now you can see for yourselves to what extent S-300 in Iran is dangerous for Israel, and to what extent Israeli-made drones are dangerous for Russia in Ukraine’s steppes.”
It seems that Moscow realizes the danger of the latter, but cannot retreat. Meanwhile, we should use it to the advantage of our army.
