The new French President Francois Hollande seems to have assumed the dynamism of his predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy. Immediately after the inauguration, he appointed Jean-Marc Ayrault, Socialist Party faction leader in the National Assembly (the lower chamber of the French parliament), as prime minister. On the first day in the office of head of state, Hollande paid a visit to Berlin. Even the lighting that struck the president’s airplane could not foil the first meeting with the German chancellor. Hollande got back to Paris and flew to Germany on another plane. For this reason, the meeting of the “Merkollande” duo, as the two leaders have already been dubbed, was held 80 minutes later than planned.
“We are especially pleased to welcome the French head of state after a bolt struck his plane, but we can view this as a good omen for our cooperation,” Angela Merkel joked before the press conference. She noted at once that both sides considered it necessary that Greece remain in the euro zone. In her words, France and Germany will do their utmost to help Greece achieve economic growth.
Experts believe that the EU Budget Pact will be one of the first stumbling blocks in the “Merkollande” cooperation. The German government is not planning to revise it, while Hollande, who calls himself “president of economic growth,” is going to send his EU partners a memorandum on its revision in the next few days.
The Day asked Thomas GOMART, Russie/NEI.Visions program manager at the French Institute of International Relations, to comment on the French head of state’s first visit and his future policies towards Europe, Russia, and Ukraine.
Mr. Gomart, “Changes Now” was Francois’s slogan in the presidential race. Can you already see any changes in your country?
(Laughs.) “It is too early to speak about this. In any case, it is important to do a lot of work after power has shifted from Sarkozy to Hollande and see the consequences of real changes. So we must wait for at least 100 days to draw the first conclusions.”
Could you assess the results of the first meeting between Hollande and Merkel yesterday? Was the meeting successful for the French president?
“As Hollande’s ultimate goal is to ensure growth, he managed to explain to Merkel that tough austerity measures must not be the only policy in the present-day conditions. The French president believes that these measures should be complemented with a policy that promotes growth and prosperity. I must add that it was very symbolic that Hollande paid his first visit to Berlin. It symbolizes the fact that France can see the main problems in the field of European and foreign policies. Undoubtedly, the policy of Paris will focus on the development of relations with Berlin. It is too early to say whether Hollande, on the one side, and Merkel, on the other, are capable of putting this dynamics to good use.”
As is known, Sarkozy used to make important foreign-policy decisions on his own. Will Hollande be doing the same thing or will he rely more on his advisors’ opinion?
“This will depend on who will be the foreign minister. For example, at the beginning of his term, Sarkozy chose rather a weak politician, Bernard Kouchner, as minister of foreign affairs, but, at the end of his presidency, he opted for Alain Juppe who in fact enjoyed the powers of a vice-prime minister. Everything will depend on the choice of the next foreign minister. But it is too early now to answer this question.”
I was told in Kyiv that Laurent Fabius, a former prime minister, would be the new chief of French diplomacy.
“We will see. I also have some insider information. But I do not want to discuss this before the official decision is made.”
Will the coming of Hollande to power affect France’s relations with Europe, Russia, and Ukraine?
“I will be frank. Relations with Germany and the euro zone’s future are a top priority for Sarkozy. It is these issues that top his agenda. And, with due account of the crisis we have come to grips with, it is very important for Hollande, at the same time, to restore or, if you like, establish new relations with Berlin and London, including those in the military sphere. Besides, it is important for Paris to work with Italy and find a new way of cooperating with the European Commission. This is the last main challenge for Hollande. At the same time, relations with Russia and Ukraine are also important. But, in my view, it is a third-rate problem.”
Can we forecast the development of Hollande’s relations with Putin and Yanukovych?
“I personally expect France to continue its [current] policy towards Russia and Ukraine, taking into account the fact that Hollande will channel his main political resources into European construction and, above all, relations with Germany. He will be also trying to save the euro zone. These are his main challenges.”
Is Hollande’s team aware of the situation in Ukraine and what attitude will the French president take to the case of Tymoshenko and other opposition leaders?
“I think Hollande’s people know and understand what is going on in Ukraine. They can see that the evolution of the Tymoshenko case is causing so much pressure on the current Ukrainian government. The course of the Tymoshenko case is arousing concern in the French political circles. France will be closely watching the decisions of President Yanukovych.”
