A future scenario for Ukraine

A longtime subjection to impe­rial Russia and the Soviet Union could not but leave its imprint on the socio-psychological state of the Ukrainians. Wor­shi­ping “Tsar the Father,” who, in line with the Moscow tsarist ideo­logy, is the representative of God on earth, and believing in the po­wer of the state of Soviets, which super­vised even your private life, has been deeply etched on the minds of our people. The natural inclination of Ukrainians for de­mo­cracy and self-sufficiency has waned in the course of time. So they find it very difficult to come out of this arti­ficial condition. The past 20 years of an inde­pen­dent Ukraine is ample proof of this: we have been either treading water or trying to ape somebody, tending to rush either forward or back­wards. Be­sides, one should not forget that Ukrainian lands were under the “protection” of dif­fe­rent empi­res, which also reflected on the inter­pretation and vision of the current and future deve­lop­ment of Ukrai­ne as an independent state.

After all, the condition of Ukrai­nian society was mirrored in the poll we posted last week on our newspaper’s website, in which more than 1,000 visitors voted. We asked our online readers the following question: “A future scenario for Ukraine: where can qua­litative changes come from?” The answers are: the Ukrainians will do it on their own (28.48 percent); Ukraine will effect changes under Western pressure (38.49 percent); as a result of revolutionary events or a new “perestroika” in Russia (30.86 percent). This shows that the Ukrainians are placing more trust in foreign pressure than in their own resources.

While Ukraine is busy with its domestic problems, the world is forming the new rules of the game for several decades ahead. Spending so much energy on forming the so-called chain of command for the sake of stability and reforms (mutually exclusive notions), the current helmsmen are unable to keep pace with what is going on in the world and Ukraine is chro­ni­cally lagging behind the deve­loped coun­tries. Besides, stability and reforms are also raising questions. And if you add court trials of op­positionists to this, the picture will be by no means beautiful. The West’s position is clear: if you want to join the European fa­mi­ly, reform you country in ear­nest, play to democratic rules, do not harass the opposition, and do not create problems for the mass media… Russia’s position is also obvious: values are not important, and all you have to do is enter our unions and stay in our sphere of influence. Naturally, the Russians can afford to scorn values and pursue a policy of their own at the expense of energy resources. We cannot do so. We do not have much oil and gas.

So, given the current conditions in this country, where shall we draw strength from, what shall we rely on?

COMMENTARIES

“THE UKRAINIANS HAVE ALWAYS FOUND STRENGTH TO REVIVE THE PROCESS OF STATE FORMATION”

Volodymyr PRYTULA, expert, project Crimean Political Dialogue:

“Ukraine needs profound and qualitative changes that can only be made from inside. So the Ukrainians should rely, first of all, on their own forces, reserves, and experience they have gained over the centuries of fighting for their own state. The Ukrainians have always found strength to revive the process of state formation after crushing defeats, and now there is a unique situation, when we can not only try again to seize a new chance but also develop the past gains on the road of state building. The main thing is to form a Ukrai­nian political nation, for which we must use, above all, our own forces, experience, and resources.

“At the same time, we are living in a globalized world and we should make full use of the latter by taking advantage of our geopolitical situation and the world’s interest in the democratic development of Ukrai­ne. Therefore, we are in bad need of assistance from the world community, including the European Union, the United States of Ame­­ri­­ca, and international organizations that could help us use the world experience of state formation and peaceful de-mocratic relationships among states. In particular, Ukrai­ne should use internatio­nal experience and resources to tack­le the Crimean Tatar problem. In spite of the progress Ukraine has made over 20 years in the Crimean Ta­tars’ repatriation and settlement, experience shows that the domestic potential is insufficient for this problem to be solved fully, democratically, and in a way mutually beneficial for all the communities of society. It is important to tap international resources and expe­rience for this purpose and, in particular, to convene and take the most active part in an international forum initiated by the Crimean Tatars and sponsored by OSCE and other international organizations. I think Ukraine will seize this chance, which will open up new prospects for us to attract all the strata of society to the making of an essentially democratic state.”

“CHANGES CANNOT COME FROM AUTHORITARIAN RUSSIA”

Viktor PASHCHENKO, Associate Professor, Political Science Department, Dnipropetrovsk National Oles Honchar University:

“I can so far see no internal forces to effect qualitative chan­ges in Ukraine. Our public, including the broad strata of the population and the elites, is very passive. Society seems to be disunited, people do not believe in their forces and ability to influence the cour­se of actions. As there are no prospects in sight, an enormous number of people are dreaming of leaving this country. The opposition could lead Ukraine to changes, but is of a specific nature. In the conditions, when the go-vernment is monolithic and will allow no modernization, the opposition is sliding into the fringes of society and becomes ‘perpetual opposition,’ as is the case of the Yabloko party in Russia. So, as far as a prospect of changes is concerned, it seems to me they can only come here under the influence of external factors. Moreover, changes cannot come from autho­ritarian Russia whose wellbeing depends on the oil and gas price. All we have to do is hope that the European Union and the US will support the process of modernization. What may speed up changes is the fact that our country is making more and more financial borrowings. But you can’t possibly remain indebted for the rest of your lifetime. Sooner or later, Ukraine will prove unable to ser­vice its foreign debt, which will aggravate the socioeconomic situation in the country. This may force the grassroots to take to the streets and demand radical changes.”

THERE IS NO NEED OF EXTERNAL FACTORS… YOUTH IS THE MOTIVE FORCE

Volodymyr KHANAS, public figure, Ternopil:

“As a matter of fact, Ukraine has sufficient domestic resources. It is, first of all, young people who have always been the motive force of qualitative changes in all countries. There is no need of any external factor. The current situation in our state shows that public moods and movements are spreading all over Ukraine irrespective of any political colorings. The people express outrage at injustices and are self-organizing accordingly. It is a process that cannot be stopped. You don’t even need to campaign. For example, if you listen to what Mr. Oleksandr Ani­shchenko, Ukrai­ne’s Minister for Public Health, was saying about curing viral hepatitis during his routine visit to Chernivtsi oblast on November 12 and then let all those who suffer from hepatitis hear this, they may tear the ministry down. In other words, there is such thing as irresponsibility at all le-vels. And, although the public is being manipulated into believing all kinds of upbeat myths, on the one hand, promises are still not being kept, on the other.”