Director of Studies at Freedom House Christopher Walker runs a group of analysts and experts that decide on the ge-neral strategy of the analytic projects of this international organization. He took part in the international conference M100 Sanssouci Colloquium 2011 called “Global Democracy – A Triumph of Social Networks?” The Day asked Walker to share his ideas on the consequences of the “Arab Spring” and tell how Freedom House assesses the developments of the judicial proceedings against the Ukrainian opposition leaders and whether it is possible to have the Ukrainian “black lists” as it has been done concerning the Russian officials involved into Magnitski’s death.
Is it possible to speak now about the consequences of the “Arab Spring” for the Middle East, China and some East European countries?
“I think the developments in the Middle East have reminded us that the change is possible in difficult environments in the sense that political authoritarianism is dead end. At the same time it is also a reminder that the challenges to maintain these improvements are very, very difficult. So, right now the ultimate lessons of the revolutions in the Arab Middle East are not entirely clear.”
What do you think can be the impact of this revolution on China and Belarus where the governments totally control the media?
“I think it is clear that the government of China is deeply concerned about these developments in the Middle East because they see that the governments that do not permit political competition and other opportunities for citizens to participate are being challenged and in these cases are being removed. This is, of course, a concern for them and what we are seeing is that the level of interference and censorship by the government of China is increased from a level that was already quite high.”
And what about Belarus?
“To some degree, the landscape and a country like Belarus where there is no meaningful political opposition that is able to participate in any sort of consistent way, civic society is also denied and press freedom is denied. In this respect the Belarusian system has many similarities to the systems in the Arab Middle East in terms of political rights and civil liberties. However, the Belarusian people will have to find the ways that work for them to bring meaningful change to the country dealing with a leader who has demonstrated his willing to use violence and enormous repression to prevent this sort of change. I think what you see in a number of these countries, including Belarus is a range of measures being taken by the government to increase the distance from their own populations and this is just one example. There are reports that China now spends more money on internal security than they do for their external military budget which is incredible if you think about it.”
Now they talk a lot about the influence of the social networks on the revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa and about their significant role in the creation of civil societies in those countries. What do you think the West has to do in order to support the development of the healthy societies in the countries that have just removed or are removing the authoritarian regimes?
“I think the democratic states, the US, the EU should use all of the appropriate areas of influence they have to support democratic institutions in these countries and their development. This can take the form of diplomacy or the form of working with activists in these countries and providing support they ask for. In the end it is going to be the countries themselves that find the right way to mobilize and bring about reform. One of the things that has been discussed at this conference, which is very interesting, is this idea that countries like China and other authoritarian regimes have been focusing their energies on preventing civic society from developing. So, even if you have social networks that enable individuals to share information, to consistently communicate, the removal of civic society from the equation is devastating for building de-mocratic institutions. This, in fact, seems to be one of the strategies the governments are using in these authoritarian settings. On that subject I would mention in Ukraine that Freedom House has noticed and observed increasing pressure on civic society. Of course, press freedom is another area we are deeply concerned about in Ukraine. These two things taken along, would suggest that the trajectory of democratic institutions in Ukraine is under enormous pressure right now.”
You have already seen the reaction of the Ukrainian government to the Freedom House report released earlier this year. Have the Ukrainian authorities tried to discuss this issue with your organization since some of the Ukrainian officials have said that Freedom House does not know the real situation in Ukraine?
“Well, we have been doing these reports over a number of years and we have a strong track record of doing these evaluations in a dispassionate way. I think the report that was produced by Freedom House and authored by Freedom House President David J. Kramer on Ukraine that we released earlier this spring was the subject of enormous discussion in Ukraine. There was some engagement with the Ukrainian officials. Our hope, of course, is that the Ukrainian authorities take the recommendations of our report to heart in practice and seriously observe the democratic institutions in the country and not just talk about them.”
How would you evaluate the recent developments in Ukraine and the judicial proceedings against the opposition leaders, the arrest of the former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko and the reaction of the European leaders who call these processes selective judiciary?
“I think the fact that such a wide range of senior respected figures from Europe and elsewhere have seen it necessary to speak in the way they are speaking about Ukraine suggests that there are some serious problems in Ukraine. It is important for the EU countries and others, as well as the US to speak clearly about the developments in Ukraine. But it is also important that the Ukrainian society take the lead in defending its rights and the civic society, the political opposition take the extra steps to defend their rights and their position. Both of these things have to happen.”
What do you think about the declaration of the former US ambassador Steven Pifer who thinks that nobody is waiting for Yanukovych in the US? Isn’t it a sort of pressure on the Ukrainian government?
“Well, I think it is one indication of the concerns that senior political leadership in the White House and the US government more generally have about developments in Ukraine. And the fact that you have people like former ambassador Pifer and others speaking on these issues is the indication that there is a real concern.”
On September 8 Yanukovych met the US Assistant Secretary of Defense Alexander Vershbow and claimed that Ukraine expects the US to support it on its way towards the EU. In your opinion, how will Obama’s government react to this request?
“The key issue for Ukraine is in practical terms: whether the society and its current government are behaving in a way that is consistent with the European values. If that happens then the path towards Europe should be a lot smoother. If there are greater restrictions on news media, civic society, political opposition, the use of the judiciary for the political purposes, these sorts of things, then the first part of the question becomes a lot more difficult.”
Some of the politicians and experts suggest making the “black lists” of the Ukrainian officials involved into persecution of the opposition as the US government has done concerning the Russian officials involved into the death of the Russian lawyer Magnitski. Do you think it is possible that the US makes the “black lists” for the Ukrainian officials?
“I think it is too early to tell on that issue right now. At the moment the level of concern on these apparent misuses of the judicial system for the political purposes is still in its early stage.”
A lot of Ukrainian experts think that Obama’s government downplays Ukraine unlike the previous US government did… Do you share this opinion?
“On that question I would say that the strategic value of the US and the EU in defending the integrity and maintaining strong relations with the group of countries in this space between Russia and Germany is critical. So, if the new EU member states and the countries of aspiration feel as so they are not a part of the transatlantic community or if they are somehow getting the second class status in the long term it will only harm the prospects for the democratic development and prosperity in the wider region. So, it is extremely important that Brussels, Washington, the key European capitals pay close attention to developments in Ukraine and hopefully, this will be more the case than the common term.”
