For Ukraine’s Right Centrists, getting together was a serious step after numerous disintegrating processes in their ranks and gradual loss of influence in the country. Now the choice is either unite or leave politics. That was how the issue was formulated in a discussion between Ukrainian national democrats and their foreign counterparts — representatives of the British Conservatives, Swedish Moderate Party, Polish Freedom Union, International Republican and National Democratic Institutes.
What could British Conservatives and Swedish Moderates share at the table, considering all the distinctions in their approaches, at times polarized? The more so, what could bring together with them the Ukrainian Party of Reform and Order or the Christian People’s Union?
“We all represent one ideological family,” noted Abbey Rosemont, British Conservative Party’s coordinator for Eastern Europe, “This seminar means partnership to us, an opportunity to share experiences.”
“We enjoy cooperating with Right Centrists all over the world,” said Brian Mefford, International Republican Institute’s coordinator of Ukrainian programs, adding that they “monitor elections, conduct training courses for political parties, and issue grants for political projects.”
In Poland, the Right Center won only after they allied with Solidarity, reminded Arthur Smolko from Polish Freedom Union. After constant painful defeats the small parties realized that effective control over political life and success of every party could be achieved only by concerted action. Thomas Cormier of the National Democratic Institute believes that now is the time for Ukraine to do just that: “We must give Ukrainian politicians the means to do so.”
Today’s Ukrainian political spectrum shows a bewildering array of parties; over a hundred officially registered to date. Some have names that sound unusual for political parties — For a Beautiful Ukraine, Party for the Rehabilitation of the Gravely Afflicted, Party of Cheated Depositors, Party in Support of Domestic Producers, Party of Fans of Females. What next? Fans of Men? Naturally, they will all run in elections, but will the Ukrainian man in the street figure out what they are all about?
“Personal ambitions are a problem facing democracy in Ukraine,” believes Dr. Julian Louis, British Conservative MP, adding, “There are too many people in Ukraine with an inflated ego, so if someone fails to become the leader of his party he will certainly proceed to form a party of his own to become its leader.”
Well, British politicians must be as ambitious; they covet leadership as much as their Ukrainian counterparts and are as much chagrined when they fail. Yet the British electoral system has vehicles preventing politicians from setting up their own parties when suffering personal fiascoes; if a party is split it will not be able to form a Cabinet. In Ukraine it is different. Here the parties take no part in forming the government. Moreover, when their members join the Cabinet as active lawmakers, they must resign from Verkhovna Rada.
British experience shows that the electoral system must become the safety fuse which makes politicians combine their responsibility for the state with their teamwork skills. Hardly anyone expects the Ukrainian electoral system to change overnight. Yet even now combined efforts could expedite the enactment of a bill on the political parties that would assist them rather than act against them. By forming a coalition, political parties could turn into a more powerful political factor even now, becoming, jointly with the President, the ruling force, rather than remain a motley association of parliamentary factions. “Time to cease being fractions,” the British colleagues point out aptly, “and become whole numbers.”
The principal point on the seminar’s agenda — Will Right Centrists agree to unite? — did not seem to cause any misunderstanding. “We must do so and at once,” insisted Valery Babych (All-Ukraine Christian Association), adding that “Every party has started getting prepared for the elections, so later it will be very difficult to change plans and go about unification.” This issue, however, begat another: how to unite. Here the opinions differed, at times getting polarized.
Serhiy Soboliev (Reforms & Order): “There are clearly two blocs of parties in the Right Center. One is represented by PRP, the People’s Rukh of Ukraine (Udovenko — Ed.), and Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists. The other, as powerful, consists of Ukrainian People’s Rukh (Kostenko — Ed.) and Batkivshchyna. In fact, the search for a coalition between these two political forces will be crucial to the parliamentary elections... I wish even now to rule out the possibility of participation in this coalition of any parties formed on a financial and political basis where the financial aspect is predominant; I have in mind the bloc of SDPU(o) and Democratic Union.” This sounded more than a little idealistic under the circumstances.
Slava Stetsko (Congress of Ukrainian Nationalists) is convinced that a Right Center coalition must be based on a lofty national idea, be it protection of Ukraine’s sovereignty against external enemies or struggle against any form of totalitarianism (Communist and otherwise), or getting Ukraine out of its crisis.
She was echoed by Olena Bondarenko (PRU): “Parties with money but without ideas will not decide Ukraine’s immediate future.”
Does anyone recall the last elections? Money is an indispensable tool in any political campaign. Some national democrats being loath to broach the financial aspect notwithstanding, everybody will have to think hard about how to attract domestic business people and talk them into making contributions. “Without sufficient financial support our parties will claim only a small percentage in the coming elections,” stressed Vasyl Kostytsky (Christian People’s Union), adding that “Whether we like it or not, the leading role in Ukrainian politics is played by parties combining political and financial capital. I guess these parties will have the last word in the future electoral system and the outcome of the next elections.”
Apart from finance, there are many other obstacles the Right Center must face. “I think we are not yet ready to form a coalition not only because we have a problem combining efforts,” Vasyl Kostytsky continued his pessimistic, albeit accurate, analysis, “but also because the Right Centrists are no longer an influential force in Ukraine. One of the paradoxes is that we cannot rally round the current government’s platform; we had no part in forming this government. Another problem is that we have no way to influence the situation in Parliament, particularly the final text of the elections bill. I think that Right Centrism the way it is now is getting narrower with other parties gradually joining it, ones being threatened seriously by the passage of a new bill on political parties. It is quite possible that when this bill is enacted a number of parties will simply vanish due to the rigors of registration and their underdeveloped regional structures.”
Andriy Strannikov (Christian People’s Union) believes that the parties will find a way to get reregistered. He sees a real threat to any Right Centrist alliance in that the former confrontation between the Right and the Left being shifted: “Today, the dividing line is between democracy and totalitarianism, and the latter can be of the Left or Right. Events of the past several months, the presidential elections and referendum, show that the regime uses totally undemocratic means, ones that were previously habitually practiced by the Communist system. The problem is that the Right Centrist forces are on different sides. The pattern imposed by the regime does not stipulate the possibility of totalitarianism turning Right. This leads astray the voters supporting the national democrats. Thus, during the previous elections people refusing to vote for the Communists were convinced they were voting for democrats.”
One of the factors threatening the coalition was determined by the seminar as that of distribution of portfolios in the political process. “We can spend hard months negotiating an alliance and just as we reach an understanding the President can offer someone from among us a ministerial post. Unfortunately, nine out of ten will accept.”
Moreover, it was pointed out that the very political process in Ukraine is constantly dominated by the attitude toward the President. Political forces are being divided into those that can afford to criticize him and those that cannot. This, in turn, will have its impact on the unification process. Not all will feel comfortable in an alliance, being constantly reminded that they can have sound ideas but would be better off to keep them to themselves. In fact, even in countries that are models of political compromise situations can develop such that it is simply impossible not to adhere to one’s standpoint, for this is where a party’s strength manifests itself.
“The Ukrainian road to democracy turned out to be bumpier than ever expected,” said Swedish Moderate Peeter Luksep, “but the fact that people from the national democratic bloc began to have round tables makes me increasingly confident in Ukraine’s future.” Mr. Luksep’s opinion was based on his Estonian experience where the national democrats succeeded not just in setting up a round table but in taking power away from the old nomenklatura. Such lessons in political success resulting from coalition are also demonstrated by Hungary and Bulgaria. Sweden, however, with its strong Social Democratic Party staying in power for over 59 years, shows an example of defeat suffered by several local Right Center parties that were and remain disunited and numerically insignificant.
“Without doubt, under the circumstances one would rather criticize not the party in power but those out of power due to their inability to unite and win the voter’s confidence,” Luksep pointed out. “They still don’t understand that an opportunity to choose between a large variety of parties scares away the electorate. In this case antisocialist voters will not cast their ballots. It is difficult to choose between 3-4 parties that are basically similar, resembling each other in the voter’s eyes. It’s like asking a mother of four which of her sons is her favorite.”
It appears that Ukrainians care little for world experience. Parties spring up like mushrooms and the trend grows stronger. Their number is also augmented by parties breaking up, like Rukh, followed two months ago by the Socialists. “The regime uses its political analysts and other clever heads to prevent any force getting influential from turning into a monolith,” noted Volodymyr Stretovych (Christian National Movement).
Olena Bondarenko (PRU) is convinced that “for quite some time the executive waged an antiparty policy.”
“The regime will do anything to keep the national democrats entrenched for as long as possible,” Yuri Kostenko (UPR) pointed out, adding that “under the circumstances it is much harder to form a coalition, including one in government. Still, the political structuring of society and the role of the parties are growing stronger. Political competition among the parties is sure to result in some of the parties getting numerically and politically stronger, with the smaller parties dropping out and becoming extinct.” And what about party leaders? Should those losing their election bids remain at the head of their parties?
The seminar ended with an even more serious debate than it began, because discussing intentions or obstacles and proposing joint action programs are different things. In any case the latter was something the Right Centrists have never been able to do before. The seminar organizers, accordingly, attached special importance to the deliberation of specific joint projects. The parties were required to stay honest, mature, and determined. When the special elections start on June 25, they will have every opportunity to undergo a sort of training and show what they can do.
