In January 2007, the EU welcomed two new members — Romania and Bulgaria — into its fold. Though Croatia, Turkey and Macedonia have the designation of candidate countries, it appears that further enlargement is on hold, for the time being at least, until the European Union can adapt its constitution to allow for the absorption of additional members. Though it lacks official status as a Candidate Country, many observers are of the view that the Ukraine will, one day, also join the Union. In particular, the ‘Orange Revolution’ of 2004 was seen as demonstrating the country’s increasingly democratic nature and pro- western stance.
The key findings of this third phase are:
— should it meet all necessary conditions — with around a third (34%) saying they would be against and the remainder (10%) unable to form an opinion (by +4 percentage points). Opinion is becoming more delineated, with fewer respondents giving a ‘don’t know’ answer towards Ukrainian membership, with 63% of those aged between 18 and 30 in favor matching the firm support given to the development of EU-Ukraine ties by Poland’s major parties and politicians.
At 73%, the level of public support here has increased by 9 percentage points since November 2005. Although (50% against), where now 10 percentage points more are against Ukrainian membership.
As observed for Ukraine, there has been a decrease in ‘don’t know’ responses in relation to all three of these countries, which suggests that opinion on EU enlargement in general is becoming more distinct — most likely due to the recent Romanian and Bulgarian accessions fostering greater awareness of the issue.
Over half (55%) of all respondents outside of the Ukraine say that they would be in favour of the country joining the EU. Support has increased since November 2005.The youngest generation is particularly enthusiastic.The Polish opinion remains the most favourable towards this particular accession; the highest level of opposition is seen in Germany and in the UK. Opinion is more favourable towards the potential accession of Ukraine (55%) than it is towards those of Russia (45%), Turkey (40%) and Morocco (35%). Ukraine is the only country where we see an increase in both favourable and unfavourable opinions: Ukrainian respondents show the same level of support for their country’s accession to the European Union as we see at the level of the EU6. The support for EU accession has increased significantly in Ukraine, since the last wave. Young Ukrainians aged 18 to 30 are more favourable towards Ukraine’s accession to the EU than the general public in their country. The vast majority seems of the view that Ukraine’s entry to the EU is an inevitability. The majority (59%) believe that Ukraine will join in around 10 years’ time at the very latest. Compared to November 2005, public opinion now envisions that Ukraine’s accession has moved closer. The Polish public is most likely to see enlargement as happening within five years.Those who favour accession are more likely than those who do not to see this as occurring within a period of around 10 years or less. Younger respondents — more likely to say that accession will occur sooner rather than later.
On the other hand, there is less opposition to Ukraine’s EU accession in Ukraine itself (25% vs. 34% at EU6 level).
However, this can be attributed to the higher proportion of Ukrainians who lack an opinion on the issue (20% vs. 10%).
The proportion of Ukrainians in favour of the accession of Russia, Turkey and Morocco is also increasing. However, it should be noted that the proportion who remain opposed to EU membership for these three countries remains quite stable while opposition has decreased by 9 percentage points regarding the accession of Ukraine.
In keeping with a general trend observed at the EU6 level,
This is also the case regarding the accession of Turkey and Morocco. However, Russia proves to be an exception with young Ukrainians being less favourable than the country as a whole towards Russia’s membership of the EU.
This appears from the fact that only 9% of those outside the Ukraine think that accession will never happen. When it comes to placing a specific time frame on this, (around 5 years, 26%; around 10 years, 33%). Only a small proportion foresee the accession process taking place more slowly (15 to 20 years,14%), although it should be noted that almost 1 in 5 (18%) lack a clear opinion, with 9 percentage points more believing that this will happen within 5 years., with the French public least likely (18%).
The Ukrainian public’s opinion on accession: public opinion places a short expected time frame on Ukrainian accession
The proportion of Ukrainians lacking an opinion on a possible timeframe for their country’s accession to the EU has decreased compared to the previous wave (24%, -7 percentage points). 26% think it will be in 5 years (+4 points compared to November 2005). Although it is also decreasing, the share of Ukrainians who say their country will never be an EU member state (12%, -2 points), is higher than the proportion found in the 6 EU countries surveyed (9%). There is little difference between young Ukrainians and the general public on this issue, but it should be mentioned that (54% for those aged 18-30, vs. 47% forthe general public). When presented with three policy alternatives, over half (52%), say that they think the EU should acknowledge Ukraine’s eventual future lies within the EU, with a view to encouraging the internal reforms necessary to opening negotiations in the future. This is especially seen as the policy of choice by those who favour Ukrainian accession, of whom it is selected by almost 7 in 10(69%). giving the Ukraine no signs as to future possibilities. Support for this policy option is high amongst those who are opposed to Ukraine joining the EU, with it being chosen by 56% of this group compared to just 10% of those who favour accession. It is also preferred by a sizable minority (40%) of German respondents. Finally, this figure remains low (14%) amongst those who favour Ukrainian accession, indicating that even here there is strong recognition of the need for reforms to take place before formal talks cancommence.
Public opinion is becoming more structured, notably in favour of an optimistic perception of the possible date of accession: the country’s young people are more convinced than the general public that EU accession will happen within the next ten years. Public opinion largely favours an EU policy of qualified encouragement towards Ukraine. Half as many (26%) favour a more passive ‘wait-and-see’ policy, a minority of less than 1 in 10 (9%) would rather open negotiations immediately. Ukrainians’ opinion regarding the timeframe for accession is becoming more defined. The majority believe the EU should take a proactive approach to Ukraine.
Ukrainians’ opinion of the steps the EU should take towards their country’s possible accession is less pronounced than that found in the EU6. 3 out of 10 Ukrainians lack an opinion on this subject compared to 13% at EU6 level either by opening negotiations on Ukrainian accession right now (17% vs. 9% at EU6 level), or by acknowledging that Ukraine’s future lies in the EU (38% vs. 52%). On the other hand, the share of those who think that the EU should not yet give any sign is much lower (15% vs. 26%).In line with the pattern generally observed in the EU6 countries, Moreover, their opinion is slightly more pronounced that that of the Ukraine in general: 25% don’t have an opinion, compared to 30% of citizens in general.
Those who express an opinion would like the EU to give a clear signal to their country, young Ukrainians aged 18 to 30 are slightly more in favour of the EU giving a positive sign to Ukraine than Ukrainian citizens in general.
Technica note: In late December 2006 and January 2007, the research institute TNS opinion conducted — on behalf of Yalta European Strategy — a survey on ‘Europeans and the accession of Ukraine to the European Union’. For this survey, interviews were conducted in the six most populous countries of the European Union (Germany, Spain, France, Italy, the United Kingdom and Poland) as well as in Ukraine itself. The sample in each country was designed to be nationally representative, with around 1000 interviews in each countr(1500 in Spain). Quotas were used in all the countries, except in Poland, where respondents were chosen randomly, using a random route. Extra interviews were conducted amongst 18—30 year olds, in order to allow for a more detailed analysis concerning this group, amounting to around 300 young respondents in each country.
