Ukraine’s strategy on the international arena has been under discussion almost since its gaining independence. Simultaneously, against the background of the increasing influence of globalization, domestic analysts have failed to pay sufficient attention to the issues of globalization and fundamental changes in the world order in the last decade. These challenges and opportunities for utilizing European experience were the major topic of a dialog between Ukrainian and foreign experts at the Contemporary Risks of and Goals for Ukraine’s Democratic Development international conference organized by the Social Projects Agency, Budapest Open Society Institute, and Conrad Adenauer Fund’s Kyiv representation.
In general, the discussion’s participants agreed that Ukraine has proven unable to take full advantage of its resources in terms of international cooperation. Moreover, in the last five years a tendency has become evident of our country falling out of the various regional integration schemes which it strived to enter. The blind policy of the so-called multiple vector approach could result in Ukraine finding itself in far from the best situation under conditions of the threat of the world’s division into a global center and poor periphery. Simultaneously, becoming an indisputable ally of the US, Europe, or Russia, Ukraine would either consciously or not expose itself to the risks resulting from its choice. What will happen next? Sharing a few recipes by foreign experts, The Day, as usual, suggests continuing the discussion.
Grzegorz KOLODKO, Head of the TIGER Transformation, Integration, and Globalization Research Center, former deputy prime minister and former minister of finance of the Republic of Poland:
“Ukraine has a chance for a good future if its political elite is not guided by illusions in its actions. Further democratization requires powerful and competent leaders. If Ukraine wants to occupy a decent place among the EU countries, it has to do everything to make its economy grow. This means that the rates should be twice as high as the current ones to allow it to catch up with the EU countries in the near future. Special attention should be given to privatization (making it open), securing an effective legislative basis, and control over observing the laws. Simultaneously, market liberalization should be gradual. There is no country in the world that could attain success without normally formed domestic capital. Domestic capital is a necessary condition for success. The Ukrainian political elite should understand this.
“Ukraine is a part of the global economy. Consider that in the era of globalization Ukraine will not be able to succeed in the economy sector on its own. Even without becoming an EU member, you have to be involved in the global economy and integrate into the European economy. One can attain this by securing the growth of domestic demand along with inviting direct foreign investment and planning a stable fiscal policy.
“It is hard to speak about Ukraine’s prospects for EU membership at present, for after the enlargement difficulties will inevitably arise in connection with the period of adaptation. If Turkey doesn’t become a full EU member in the near future, Ukraine’s membership prospects will be unclear. The reason for all your problems is your economic backwardness. You cannot explain everything by pointing to the political situation and cultural differences. In France, for instance, there are several million Muslims; in other words, differences exist everywhere. Ukraine’s striving to enter NATO is quite timely: NATO membership would considerably simplify its way to the European community. Ukraine is now at the crossroads, and it has to clearly define where it is going to move.”
James SHERR, fellow with the Conflict Studies Research Center at the Royal Military Academy (Great Britain):
“Certainly, globalization processes are different in different countries. Ukraine shouldn’t resist them, since it might find itself in a tense situation, like the present condition of the Muslim world. Ukraine has to integrate into the EU. This is a painful and complicated process, and declarations alone are not enough here. Your country has to demonstrate its dedication to its European strivings, to begin with, by fighting drug smuggling and illegal migration from the East through its territory. Due to its geographic location, Ukraine is very important as a transit state. However, its major task for today is to bring its economy out of the shadows. Political institutions also shouldn’t held be hostage to private interests.
“It’s a shame that major information on Ukraine comes to the West through Russian sources. In general, your information chaos doesn’t allow you to create a decent international image for Ukraine. Perhaps the fact also matters that Ukraine wasn’t in the vanguard of changes in the Gorbachev era, when a class of people realizing the importance of the information process appeared.”
Bohdan OSADCHUK, expert, the Berlin Free University:
“Ukraine has wasted much time because of its passivity and inadequacy in terms of protecting its interests and creating its own concepts. Even such a successful configuration as GUUAM wasn’t effectively used: today it is in fact a dead alliance. President Kwasniewski’s idea regarding regional cooperation between Poland, Ukraine, and the Baltic states hasn’t been duly understood. There were many chances, especially when the Euro-Atlantic world was still united and Ukraine was very popular as one of the anti-Communist resistance centers, in spite of the high emigration level. I recall Deutsche Bank experts forecasting a fantastic rate for Ukraine’s economic growth. Today the situation is much more complex. There is a crisis in European-American relations; NATO is in a critical state (although I don’t rule out that precisely this might speed up Ukraine’s integration into the alliance); Europe has split into at least two parts. The Weimar triangle, France-Germany-Poland, is a dead configuration. The process of drafting the EU Constitution, where Poland opposes the French-German concept, further complicates things.
“Thus, Ukraine is facing new problems. Solving them requires a balanced foreign policy instead of a dichotomy, a double authority, when its course is defined, on the one hand, by the Presidential Administration, and on the other by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Such a situation doesn’t exist in any other European country. Europe is fed up with declarations unsupported by any concrete steps. If this continues, Ukraine will find itself in isolation. A big problem is also Ukraine’s society unawareness of the foreign situation caused by lack of a network of its own foreign correspondents.”
