The Day discusses the presidential team’s six months in office, possible amendments to the Constitution, the peculiarities of local elections, the parliament’s problems, and Ukraine’s security with the renowned political scientist, Dmytro VYDRIN:
It has been six months since the new team led by Viktor Yanukovych came to power. Do you think they were able to use the honeymoon period to push for the reforms they had promised? What is the outcome of their work in this period?
“There are technological and electoral results. Sometimes they may be identical, and at other times, they are not. In my opinion, in this situation we can see an overlapping of these results.
“The technological result means that the constitutional system, or, to put it more simply, order has been restored in the country. Of course, this change was somewhat constrained, but there have been some obvious tendencies in this direction. Now it is clear who you address if there is an issue with municipal services, college enrollment, illegal land seizure, police infractions etc. That is, the system of decision-making has been restored.
“Seven months ago there were virtually no decisions carried out at any level. At the local level it would be blocked by the diversity of political groupings controlling the local governments, and at the top, by the controversies within the triangle made up of the parliament, the cabinet, and the president. Any presidential decision would be obstructed by the cabinet and vice versa, while the Verkhovna Rada would frustrate both the president’s and the cabinet’s decisions. Today, order is restored, and this is the main achievement of the incumbent administration.
“It is hard to say, at present, how it conforms with the electoral sentiments as neither sociological research nor focus groups can be an ultimate criterion, only elections. The local elections of the 31st October will become the first test of strength for the authorities, and will show how they represent the people. So far, we can only rely on sociological data which testify that the ratings of the incumbents are not just high but actually increasing, albeit slowly. In two months we are going to see how society grades the authorities.”
Of course, restoring order is definitely a positive thing, but the methods also matter. This is where the incumbent administration has problems, as a number of its previous decisions and actions outright violated the law. Moreover, the representatives of the administration have repeatedly emphasized the need to change the Constitution. At present, the Constitutional Court is considering a proposal questioning the legitimacy of the amendments to the Constitution made in 2004. Is there any need to change the Constitution? Will these changes be useful for the authorities, and for society?
“I recently stumbled across a quotation of a renowned American political scientist which may sound pretty cynical to us, but it nevertheless reflects the present reality fairly well. He said, ‘Only 20 years ago, politics was an art of observing the laws, and now it has turned into an art of breaking the laws, while maintaining an air of legitimacy.’ Mind you, this was said by a representative of a highly civilized and democratic system.
“I think something is going on around the world. Something that cannot be described in terms of laws, regulations, and procedures, and therefore it requires maneuvering not via laws, but around them. The present offers us a series of challenges, and laws prevent us from responding quickly. Do you remember when there was an outburst of anthrax in the United States. What immediately followed violated the Constitution and American laws.
“There was a similar story concerning terrorism. A system of total wiretapping was immediately imposed, which is also strictly prohibited by the American Constitution. Perhaps the global administrative system is lagging behind the world’s technological progress, which is used not only by good guys, but unfortunately, by bad guys as well.
“For example, mobile telephone communications or the Internet greatly enhance the work of the good as well as the evil. Sometimes criminals use the Internet even more extensively than law enforcers. Some two or three years ago I happened to visit one of the oblast SBU offices, and they tell me, ‘We have limited access to Internet, so we have to ask private business structures to let us use their networks.’ As criminals have unlimited access while law enforcers do not, it causes new challenges which are hard to answer in complete conformity to the law. This is true in the USA, Europe, and Ukraine.
“As far as changing the Constitution goes, I think this is not to happen in the nearest future, because there is this pragmatic principle, ‘do not break what is working.’ The Regionals and the forces that joined them have learned to work with whatever political system they inherited from the previous regime, and which they improved. First of all, I mean the work of the coalition — both as the coalition body and in situational partnership mode. The system functions quite well. When it is necessary to pass a bill of principal importance, there will always be situational partners from outside the coalition. Therefore it is unreasonable and impractical to waste big money and, figuratively speaking, step over someone’s dead body, in order to have an ephemeral constitutional majority.”
In his speech at the Verkhovna Rada on occasion of the 20th anniversary of the Declaration of State Sovereignty, Leonid Kravchuk very emotionally said that the parliament had turned into a branch of the presidential administration, a body of “yes men.” Do you agree with this diagnosis?
“Unfortunately, Kravchuk’s words are often filled with envy, jealousy, and unrealized political ambitions, rather than wisdom. The first president was unable to rise above the struggle, that is, to act as a wise arbiter who voices objective, clear-cut, and unbiased conclusions.
“I think that the parliament is more than just a political structure or a political branch of power. It is a corporation with its corporate interests and ethics. Any corporation will have a certain immunity system, an instinct of self-preservation, therefore, it will not agree to commit a suicide.
“If the Verkhovna Rada starts carrying out the orders given by some sponger from a bureaucratic structure, it will mean the death of parliament as a corporation. So I think that there should be interaction between the president and the parliament, but if the parliament becomes servile it will be the death of it. Since there don’t seem to be any suicidal individuals there, the first president’s remarks are exaggerated.”
But MPs are bought by the dozen. Elected as members of certain parties and blocs, today they represent totally different interests — contrary to the interests of their electorate.
“I have often said that the Verkhovna Rada has to be re-elected because each parliament is a reflection of its time. The present convocation reflects the reality of three years ago; it is an image of the distribution of powers of that time. The times have changed, therefore the formal matrix of the parliament does not conform to today’s reality. I was hoping that the Verkhovna Rada would be re-elected this year, but this did not happen. I still hope that it can be re-elected early next year.”
A series of resignations in the administrative team shows that something is rotten in the “monolithic” Party of Regions. There are lots of antagonisms. Which are the main influential groups that are engaged in the strife? Should we expect Prime Minister Mykola Azarov to resign this fall?
“People tend to believe that antagonism is bad. However, as a person with a classical philosophical education, I believe that antagonism is good. At the philosophy department of the Kyiv university I was taught that they were the main source of development of any system, economic, political, and even aesthetic. If there is antagonism, then the system is alive, it has a potential for development.
“I qualify the parties in the controversy according to their skills rather than names. I think that the main dividing line there lies between those who still can work somehow, and those who only pretend to be working. That is, there is a struggle between the imitators and the realists. Unfortunately, there will be lots of imitators in any regime, and many are known to be imitators even before they are invited to join in.
“They are invited because there are personal and corporate agreements. Say, you helped us in the election, made a bright speech on television, helped us financially, so you have the right to try your luck. Their failures will gradually cleanse the regime of imitators and narcissistic windbags. However, one imitator can be replaced by another.”
Speaking of the local elections, will it let new leaders and parties to come to power, or just the opposite, will it reinforce the old political players?
“The new parties will not be able to come to power due to the legislative norm on the length of their existence, which limits their participation in the election. Of course it will be good if some serious parties will be elected. I toured the whole of Ukraine recently. I can say that the new leaders on the local level are gradually ripening.
“For example, I met some honest people in Alushta. A man who was born in Alushta, and whose siblings were also born in Alushta, is going to run for mayor there. I advised him not to invent anything, just write that he and all his family were born in Alushta. This can become his main slogan. Ukraine is sick and tired of ‘guests’ touring region after region and having nothing to do with any of them.
“New people are beginning to appear, but how are they to get into local governments? Maybe, via some rejuvenated old parties that have been inconspicuous for years, or maybe via purchasing a franchise from well-known parties to represent them. But this does not mean that they are going to dissolve into those parties or vanish into thin air. They will keep their mentalities and political opinions, which will inevitably result in adding their own and corporate element to political life.
“It will diversify and expand our politics. Although I don’t think that the coming local election will become a bifurcation point after which the Ukrainian elite will go through a radical renewal. Radical renewal is likely to start during the next parliamentary election.”
Ukraine officially declared its non-aligned status, which is incompatible with the prolongation of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) term of stay in the Crimea until 2042. The budget does not envisage the development of armed forces, due to this status. After the revision of the budget, the allocations for armed forces were actually reduced. How, given these circumstances, can Ukraine ensure its security?
“The stay of the Black Sea Fleet on Ukrainian territory has something to do with problems in the financing of the Ukrainian armed forces. At this stage we see the Russian Black Sea Fleet positively, as something that can be used for friendly purposes. Today we cannot afford a strong fleet with flagships, cruisers, and so on. Therefore, good relations with Russia which offers us a number of joint projects (war on marine piracy and protection of our transit potential) are for me a huge success of Ukrainian diplomacy.
“As for the non-bloc status, Ukraine adopted it 20 years ago, so we have to ask those MPs who voted for it back then, how they agreed the non-bloc status and the BSF’s stay on our territory.”
The MPs in question limited the term of stay by 2017. In addition, Ukraine has several times declared Euro-Atlantic aspirations.
“Only three years ago we were making Russia into an enemy. We directed additional efforts at the potential deterrence of this fake aggressor. Today, this problem is eliminated, which will allow us to save huge political and economic resources.”
Despite widespread rotations that followed the advance of the PoR to power, the apparatus of the Council for National Security and Defense (CNSD) is not affected, except for the appointment of Nestor Shufrych as deputy secretary of CNSD. That is to say that CNSD is made up of people appointed during Viktor Yushchenko’s presidency. Why do you think the “purge” did not affect CNSD? Do you know of any plans the president might have to change the composition of the CNSD apparatus?
“This question should be addressed to those who are developing the new conception of the CNSD apparatus. Personally I am convinced that not only the CNSD has to be reformed, but also the entire administrative branch in Ukraine. The today’s world offers new challenges, new times are coming, therefore there must be a new apparatus with new goals and fresh views. I expect that all the changes concerning the CNSD will start as early as in September. I don’t know who will be responsible for that. Only one thing is clear, that the president is going to be in charge of the process.”
