By nominating Viktor Yanukovych as the only presidential candidate from the parliamentary government coalition, those in power have apparently begun to plot their election campaign strategy. Of course, if one is to consider the nomination of Yanukovych an irreversible decision.
The first and quite well-organized step toward this end was last week’s conference that focused on a strategy of stable growth and structural and innovative transformations of Ukraine’s economy in the years 2004 to 2015. Understandably, this period spans two presidential terms, while the strategy itself could be easily refashioned into an election campaign. It did not take an expert to see such implications in the last week’s conference.
To begin with, the strategy has been developed on the initiative of President Kuchma by a government commission headed by Yanukovych. To all appearances, the conference was dedicated to the presentation of this science-intensive product, with over eighty academicians and corresponding members, 174 doctors, and 187 candidates in sciences involved in its creation. However, Pres. Kuchma insisted that those present do not politicize the essence and goals of the conference. For this reason during their analysis of the accomplishments both the president and premier said so much about the achievements of Ukraine’s economy, which have made “the Ukrainian model of development... one of the most effective in the post-Soviet space,” according to the president. Also impressive are statistics released for the first time by the president to the effect that labor efficiency in Ukraine has already exceeded that of 1990 by one-third. What next? The president has mentioned a policy of a “new wave of reforms.”
Yanukovych approached the rostrum in a slow but steady pace, like a well-prepared student, and began his quite well-prepared speech with quoting the new indicators of the nation’s economy, which combines high growth with qualitative transformations. Characteristically, the premier quoted the same figures as the president, except that he used the statistics not for the past four years, but only for the period during which he headed the government. Understandably, it makes no sense for him to mention the accomplishments of somebody else. The only presidential hopeful from those in power did not appear to be trying to please the audience. In evaluating Ukraine’s economy in general, he offered his own formula: recognition of the fact that Ukraine has passed the post-crisis phase of recovery and is in the point of no return to the totalitarian system. According to Yanukovych, our country faces a future in Europe. Simultaneously, he believes that it is impossible to join the EU without raising living standards. At this point, normally temperate Yanukovych became emotional. As he put it, to achieve the goals set, Ukraine needs to move not in first space velocity, which we have already reached, and not even in second, but in third velocity. The audience, who before this applauded only the president’s entry, listened with interest but in silence. And this is where Pres. Kuchma thought it appropriate to interrupt the speech with applause, with the auditorium joining in.
Relying on the strategy developed by the scholars, Yanukovych said that in the next decade the economy will expand at an annual rate of 6-7%, while GDP will increase by 2.3-2.4 times. The president cited the same statistics in his opening speech. At the same time, Yanukovych obviously tried to appear modest and did not repeat the forecast mentioned by Kuchma to the effect that by 2015 Ukraine’s per capita GDP will reach $12-15,000.
Not surprisingly, Yanukovych has insisted on discarding the command-administrative method of managing the economy and stressed the need to stimulate economic initiative. “Ukraine’s economic policy should discard command-administrative interference with the activity of economic entities and should be reoriented toward the methods of stimulating economic initiative and supporting the stability of the nation’s markets,” the premier said. In his view, to effect innovation and investment reforms the country needs a strong and efficient banking system, a modern credit and financing infrastructure capable of operating the whole range of financial instruments.
To quote Yanukovych, to embark on an innovative path of development we will focus on developing the economy on the basis of knowledge, creating conditions for intensive interaction between the nation’s scholars and businessmen, and ensuring financial and intellectual capitalization of science and business.
He stressed that a major role in this should be played by a regional innovation policy resting “on the principles of partnership between those in power and business, creating a civilized market of nonmaterial assets, and embracing high technologies.” “By fulfilling the goals of the economic strategies, we will create a favorable investment climate, which will be supported by the government’s financial, institutional, regulatory, and competitive policies. The Cabinet of Ministers will complete the formation of the basic institutions of a market economy, above all in the sphere of ownership and competition,” the premier said in an obvious attempt to send a positive signal to the Ukrainian business.
The premier further enumerated the goals of ministries and departments. Among the strategic goals of the fuel and energy complex he named upgrading power plants, diversifying energy sources, and reducing the economy’s power consumption level to that of the EU countries. “Agriculture and associated manufacturing clusters are undergoing comprehensive transformations and becoming a significant source of export revenues for Ukraine,” he stressed, obviously quoting the authors of the strategy. Among the immediate priorities for the transport sector Yanukovych named creating a network of international transport corridors, upgrading the nation’s transport fleets, and increasing service standards to the European level. “Transit in the broadest sense of this word should become one of the locomotives of the nation’s economy,” he stressed, the probable implication being his determination to finally set the Odesa-Brody project afoot.
Following the request of the president not to politicize the conference, Yanukovych said almost nothing about politics. But, of course, he could not but mention the political reform. The premier is convinced that the failed vote will not have long-term implications. “The reform will be implemented,” he stated resolutely. Obviously, the lessons learned from this miscarriage made the premier and presidential contender mention the consolidation of Ukrainian elites and the need for a consensus. He even views the discussion of this strategy as this long-sought consensus.
The premier stressed that the pathos of economic and political reforms should be understandable to the public, who should be proud of them and believe in the future. Symbolically, this statement was immediately followed by the one on the need to eliminate poverty. In general, the premier’s speech writers have made a quite good claim for success in the election campaign.
