Could the 2006 elections be canceled? What will be the outcome of the current crisis? What will happen next? Today these questions are being answered in a variety of ways, including very radical forecasts ranging from impeachment to the dissolution of parliament. By offering its readers another outwardly paradoxical scenario, The Day hopes to further this discussion. On our part, we would like to note that many Ukrainians are linking their hopes for a way out of the crisis to the coming parliamentary elections. There is still a chance, however small.
For the past several months polls have shown that the results of the parliamentary elections will not allow those in power to form a cabinet and appoint a prime minister. These data come from social study centers and institutes influenced by various political forces.
Therefore the current political leadership would want the elections postponed, say, for a year. Grounds can easily be found: for example, the financial crisis caused by a considerable increase in gas prices not envisaged by the central budget.
The political reform that has been launched envisages, among other things, a longer term of office — five rather than four years — for the Verkhovna Rada to be elected on March 26. Why not enact this clause two or three months earlier for the benefit of the current parliament?
Are there forces that will protest the cancellation of elections this year?
The size of the communist faction will shrink by two times after the elections, so they have no reason to insist on losing weight.
The Batkivshchyna faction will not be able to push through Yulia Tymoshenko’s candidature as prime minister in the new parliament. They will not be supported by the right and left wings, by the center, Yushchenko’s friends in Our Ukraine, the socialists, or the Party of the Regions.
Volodymyr Lytvyn may well lose his post as chairman of the Verkhovna Rada in the new parliament, so his party has no need to speed matters. Besides, there is the danger that the political force of which he is the leader will fail to surmount the 3-percent barrier.
Moroz’s Socialist Party, on finding itself in a parliamentary minority together with Our Ukraine, will lose ministerial posts and will become an outcast. They are not likely to make friends with Yanukovych, nor will they manage to form a centrist majority with Lytvyn and other centrists because their animosity over the electorate has gone too far.
The Party of the Regions will get more seats than it has now. Theoretically, it can form a coalition majority, but this will be easier said than done. Besides, after inheriting Ukraine’s economy in the current state of decline, the party will quickly lose electoral support and will face separatist moods in Halychyna, Zakarpattia, and elsewhere. As a result, it will lose face once and for all. The party leaders are hardly likely to feel enthusiastic about such a course of events, considering that they are thinking only about good things, namely doing good business. They may well leave the “dirty work” to someone else, anyone who wants to come to power in a better-off Ukraine.
Yanukovych has been quoted by some media as being against postponing the elections. Since he is the only party leader to have made such statements, it looks as though the idea was circulated. Perhaps the more Yanukovych campaigns for timely elections the greater the number of those willing to put them off.
On other occasions Yanukovych has predicted the inevitable collapse of the Ukrainian economy because of rising gas prices. Can the Party of the Regions be willing to come to power in order to take the blame for this collapse?
Like the communists, the SDPU(U) may lose some seats in parliament. Therefore, bringing this prospect closer would make no sense. Within a year all accusations against the leaders of this promising party will have been forgotten amidst massive attacks against new targets: Our Ukraine and other favorites.
Have we left anyone out? All the current parliamentarians who are not on the passable slates will be all for putting the elections off for a year.
Among the election participants on the official lists are about 50 parties and blocs, whereas only 6-8 will surmount the barrier. Therefore, the rest are adamantly opposed to these concrete elections. All told, there are 125 parties registered in Ukraine (many are not even taking part in the campaign), most of which will not protest the postponing of the election date.
A postponement will please the governors and ministers who were forced to withdraw their names from the slates so as not to combine two potential types of enrichment. They may well expect the situation to change eventually.
It would be naпve to expect Russia to lower gas prices after the Verkhovna Rada dismissed the government. The instability of the government is increasing, and this is strengthening the positions of those who are campaigning to postpone the elections. The Constitutional Court is not functioning, and the president has decided to dismiss a considerable number of SBU generals in the first quarter of this year. The cabinet is refusing to take orders from parliament or to recognize its own dismissal. If this is not a crisis, what is it?
Considering the large sums spent on the elections, the lack of budget funds, and the troubling situation, I believe that the electorate too will not insist that the elections be held precisely in March 2006.
The elections will be postponed in the following manner. A group of unaffiliated MPs, rather than any representatives of the Party of the Regions or Our Ukraine, will submit a motion. When it is put to the vote, a large proportion of the Party of the Regions faction will oppose it or abstain. Most parliamentarians within or outside the other factions will vote in favor.
