Changes to the Constitution of Ukraine may affect the ambitions of Ukrainian politicians. Prime Minister Yanukovych has declared that he will run in the presidential elections if the constitutional reform is abolished and the authority to form the cabinet is restored to the president of Ukraine. “I will have to fight for the presidential post if the changes to the constitution are repealed. If I take part in the elections, the struggle will be a serious one,” Yanukovych said in an interview with Bloomberg, the financial news agency.
According to political analyst Vadym Karasiov, the prime minister’s statement is a signal to Ukraine’s three top politicians: President Viktor Yushchenko, Yulia Tymoshenko, and Oleksandr Moroz. “For Tymoshenko and Yushchenko, this message reads, ‘Whether or not you cancel the political reform, the Party of Regions will not be part of the program; this party is not worried or scared by any attempts to abolish the reform.’ For Moroz, it is a signal to be less active in playing his “gold stock” in the coalition game; otherwise it will turn into a bronze one.”
Nevertheless, it is obvious that Yanukovych will run for president under any constitution. Karasiov predicts that the next presidential elections will focus on Yushchenko, Tymoshenko, and Yanukovych. The key intrigue will be in the second round, not the first one. “To an extent, the signal from Yanukovych is probably aimed at destroying the ties taking shape between Tymoshenko and the president. Yanukovych is not likely to have a rival in the first round; one will certainly make it to the second round. His main rivals in the first round will be Tymoshenko and Yushchenko, and it is anyone’s guess which of the two will win the second round. Therefore, after receiving this signal from Yanukovych, both Tymoshenko and Yushchenko will have to figure out on which chunk of the political road, particularly the road to the abolition of the political reform, they will be able to remain genuine fellow travelers, and at which point they will turn into competitors in the presidential race,” Karasiov said in an interview with The Day.
Meanwhile, relations between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko have become warmer. Just like in 2004, they are united in the face of a common enemy. In 2004 it was Kuchma, now it is Yanukovych. Perhaps after the dismissal of Tarasiuk and Lutsenko the president realized that Yanukovych is a greater threat than Tymoshenko.
A few weeks ago Tymoshenko and Yushchenko met on Bankova Street. The president’s press secretary, Iryna Vannikova, later announced that the BYuT, as an opposition force, is responsible for the domestic political process in Ukraine. In other words, keeping the prime minister calm is a task faced not only by the Presidential Secretariat but Tymoshenko as well.
Early elections and an alliance of democratic forces are being discussed more frequently. On Dec. 11, the leader of the BYuT confirmed that she had a meeting with ex-interior minister Yurii Lutsenko, the president’s current staff advisor: “It is true that I met Lutsenko on Saturday.” She added that the meeting took place on Lutsenko’s initiative and that they had agreed to make every effort to have parliament disbanded. “I heard from Mr. Lutsenko that he is not planning to break up the democratic forces and intends to work within a system of maximum unity,” she pointed out.
According to Tymoshenko, Lutsenko did not speak to her on behalf of Our Ukraine: “He spoke as an individual who intends to start working in the opposition and is trying to find his place so as not to cause a split in the democratic forces,” added Tymoshenko.
The Day asked an expert whether an alliance of democratic forces is a distinct possibility.
Ihor LOSEV, Associate Professor, Cultural Studies Chair, National University of Kyiv-Mohyla Academy:
Any alliance of like-minded political forces is always a possibility, but in our country considerably more powerful subjective factors, like ambition, greed, primitiveness, and stupidity always interfere in politics, in the form of the so-called political elite. As for its greed, I’m always reminded of Karl Marx, who described a capitalist who sells even the rope that will be used to hang him in return for 100-percent profit. This is precisely what our “businessmen,” who rub shoulders with those in power, are all about. So, it is hard to say which one of those willing to unite will sell himself for 30 pieces of silver. It is hard to say whose self-esteem will be wounded at the very last moment, who will act according to his inferiority complex.
