“This project is based on 1984 technical specifications, and there seems to be no end to it. We shall see what happens next. There will be a special announcement on this matter,” Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said about the An-70 plane.
The program of building the An-70, a medium-range short takeoff-and-landing military cargo plane was developed by Russia and Ukraine on the basis of intergovernmental agreements signed in 1993 and 1999. The basic version of this airplane is able to transport up to 35 tons of cargo for a distance of 5,000 km. The two defense ministries are the customers, with Kyiv’s Aviant plant assembling the first five serial-production machines for Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense. In addition, Ukraine intends to market the An-70’s commercial version in 2008.
According to Viacheslav Bohuslayev, general manager of the Zaporizhia-based Motor-Sich plant, politics, not common sense is behind the statements of Russian top military executives. He still thinks that “we will have the plane, in fact it already exists: there is not a shadow of a doubt.” The general manager also notes that his factory is not going to disrupt cooperation with Russian plants involved in the production of engines for this aircraft.
But it still seems as though his plans may be thwarted and the Ukrainian enterprise will have to look for new partners. An expert at Russia’s Air Force Headquarters claims that if Moscow bows out of the An-70 project, Kyiv will find it difficult to execute it by itself because 80 percent of the plants that manufacture components for this plane are based in Russia.
However, another Russian expert, test pilot Aleksandr Akimenkov, takes a dim view of this decision by Russia’s top brass. “About $4 billion were invested in the An-70 project in the Soviet period. In bowing out of the project, Russia will in fact be handing over these funds to Ukraine.” Akimenkov says that Russia’s official withdrawal from this program will provide a legal loophole for the Ukrainian side to offer its own An-70 analogue on the international market.
An even more authoritative Russian expert and one of the largest players on the Russian aviation market, State Duma deputy Aleksandr Lebedev, believes that the current situation is a lesson to both countries. “I do not see any political subtext here,” says Lebedev. “This seems to be a deliberate choice of Russia’s Ministry of Defense: obviously, it has some alternatives. But look at this whole story of cooperation between the two groups of bureaucrats, the two governments: I don’t believe in a model in which bureaucrats that control the entire property of a sector try to build something without studying the market and placing orders, which is common practice in a market economy. This is a nonstarter, like the Tu-334, which continues to be produced, although there has not been a single order for it.
“I hope this doesn’t happen to the An-148. First of all, there are orders for it, and, furthermore, not only states but the private sector are cooperating. The state bureaucracy of one country cannot handle this matter.”
And lastly, Lebedev notes certain political motives in this conflict. “For example, there are no hitches with the An-148.” He quotes Vladimir Putin’s remarks to the governor of Voronezh: “If this is a good Russian- Ukrainian plane and there is a demand for it, we must produce it.” Even when Lebedev was asked bluntly by The Day if Russia’s decision has something to do with Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, Lebedev said, “I think the political element is the least important thing here.” But it hasn’t been ruled out.
