According to specialists from the Ukrainian Meteorology Center the heatwave that has plagued Ukraine over the past month is set to subside on August 18. But it may be too early to sigh in relief and enjoy the milder weather before the inevitable chills. A comparison with Russia, which has endured similar (actually worse) conditions, suggests trouble ahead. The heat there is also slowly receding, but rather than improvements, it spells new troubles: hurricanes and tornadoes. Ukraine may yet face a tempestuous summer’s end.
British weather forecasters spoke about the arrival of hurricanes and strong squalls to the territory of Russia a few weeks ago. Everything happened as predicted. Last weekend the northeastern part of the Russian Federation was hit by hurricanes, which left more than 90 thousand people without electricity. Fallen trees blocked traffic on the roads and stopped about 50 trains. According to foreign experts, the country appeared to be unprepared to deal with hurricanes, just as in the case of the heatwave.
In Ukraine, a storm warning has been announced for the next few days in the west of the country: “Because of the expected rainfall in the rivers of the Carpathian region, levels of water in the rivers of the Transcarpathian region are expected to rise by 0.5-1.5 m, while the rivers of the Sian and the Dniester basins — in the Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk regions — as well as the Prut and the Siret will rise by 0.3-1.0 m. In case of heavy rains a formation of significant slope and local runoff is possible, and there is a risk of mud torrents in mountainous areas,” says the website of the Ukrainian meteorology center.
The Day asked the Ministry of Emergency Situations about whether the country is ready to deal with such problems and what the plan is. After numerous calls to various subdivisions of the department, it turned out that specialists there are now “busy” with the fire safety issues and are preparing a report for the president on the number of fires in Ukraine, measures to combat them, and the damage caused.
They have not yet gotten around to hurricanes or floods. But one might hope that they react more promptly to the warnings of the Ukrainian Meteorology Center to prevent a calamity, instead of having to deal with the consequences. However, Ukrainian weather forecasters reassure that storms of Russia’s magnitude may omit Ukraine.
“If in Russia the end of the abnormal heat is accompanied by hurricanes, in Ukraine we do not expect it. Intensive phenomena can only occur in the western regions, where we announced a storm warning for the coming days,” said the head of the sector for short-term forecasting of the Meteorology Center Liudmyla Humonenko.
“In general, the whole territory of Ukraine is approached by thunderstorms with strong winds and hail, as well as a temperature decrease to 23-28 degrees Centigrade. The rain with thunderstorms, squalls, and hail is expected in most regions of Ukraine except for the Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, Zaporizhia regions, and the Crimea. The expected daytime temperatures will be 23-29 degrees, while in the south and southeast cloudy weather will persist, with temperatures 30-35 degrees Centigrade. By the end of the week, the temperature will drop in those regions as well.”
Why does the weather change so drastically? As the British meteorologist Mike Blackburn explained to a Russian newspaper, the reason for such weather fluctuations lies in the fact that at the height of seven to sixteen kilometers in the atmosphere abrupt changes of airflow occur, for example, cold streams dramatically change for hot ones or vice versa, and as a result hurricanes and other natural disasters may occur. According to him, precisely these changes in airflow caused the abnormal heat in Russia and major floods in Pakistan. In recent weeks, meteorologists have noticed unusual changes in the behavior of air currents. If the airwaves usually moved to the east, in mid-July they got stuck on the spot, and these stable formations called “blocking events” by climatologists create prime conditions for natural anomalies. In Pakistan, this situation coincided in time with the summer monsoon, which brought more rain to the north of the country, and resulted in flooding. In Russia, it caused a constant inflow of hot air from Africa and extreme heat.
In addition, the British scientist said that the unusual heat could return to Russia next summer — as the planet continues to warm up, its northern parts get warmer. For now, the meteorologist calls on Russian authorities to do something to deal with possible hurricanes and tornadoes, because August and September is the most suitable time for these anomalies. As experts say, at wind speeds ranging from 20 to 24 meters per second, decrepit buildings are destroyed, roofs are broken away... In Russia the wind can reach 90 meters per second. Although the forecasts of Ukrainian experts are more consolatory than foreign ones, we should also think in advance on how to prevent or reduce the consequences of possible extreme weather.
