Alexander Rahr, the director of Russia and CIS programs at the German Council on Foreign Relations, is well known in Ukrainian and German expert circles. The opinions of this German expert are considered in Bonn and Kyiv. Does Germany consider early parliamentary elections in Ukraine a fait accompli? What does Germany think about Yushchenko and Yanukovych in light of the recent political crisis? These and other questions are raised in The Day ’s exclusive interview with Aleksandr RAHR.
Over 151 Ukrainian MPs tendered their resignations, thus paving the way for recognizing that Ukraine’s highest legislative body has no authority. Do you think this is also paving the way for early parliamentary elections, scheduled for Sept. 30 according to the president’s decree?
Rahr: The summer season is starting in Ukraine. After the recent battles the parliamentarians will recess in order to mend their frayed nerves. Therefore, yes, I think that everybody has recognized Sept. 30 as the date marking the new beginning of Ukrainian history and politics. I also think there will be no political instability before this date.
Speaker Oleksandr Moroz, however, refuses to recognize the president’s decree on early elections and keeps looking for ways to prevent them.
Rahr: Although he didn’t recognize it officially, he is taking part in a process that has already begun. The speaker realizes that the option of blockading parliament, the way it happened in Russia in 1993, will not work in Ukraine. I think that Moroz is simply trying to increase his worth. I don’t think he will have another chance, so Moroz has to maintain his principled stand in order to look like an ideal politician in the electorate’s eyes.
Do you think that the Party of Regions has reconciled itself to the early elections? Won’t it do an about-face?
Rahr: The Party of Regions will certainly take part in the elections. Its leaders, headed by Viktor Yanukovych, agreed to this compromise and struck a deal because they realized that the struggle between the two branches of power would never lead to victory. The elections may help the Party of Regions consolidate its power even more. After the Regionals declared their position and agreed about holding elections on Sept. 30, the sounds of battle began to abate. This is further proof that the Party of Regions has begun its election campaign.
Who do you think will form the majority during the September elections, the Party of Regions with its allies or the democratic forces rallied round Our Ukraine and the BYut?
Rahr: This is the most interesting question. There are many forecasts. I think that most likely the elections will produce results similar to those in March 2006 because the main actors will probably obtain the same number of votes; maybe the BYuT will get a few more and Our Ukraine a few less. According to predictions being made in the West, Yushchenko and Tymoshenko may reach 51 percent. If this happens, Ukraine will have an Orange government, but not with Yulia Tymoshenko as prime minister.
What is Germany’s attitude to Yushchenko and Yanukovych in light of the recent political crisis?
Rahr: It depends. I believe that Yushchenko surpassed the limits of the law when he dissolved the Verkhovna Rada, then allowed it to hold sessions, then threatened it with his power. It is still not clear what he was actually after. Also, I think his ratings are suffering because of this. Even worse, his policy has served to considerably weaken the parliamentary republic in Ukraine. In the people’s eyes parliament is the proverbial whipping boy whom no one takes seriously. Yushchenko said that only one person makes decisions in this country, the president.
As for Yanukovych, I think he made some very bad mistakes even before the crisis. He didn’t have to force Yushchenko to perform a political strip tease in public by depriving him step by step of all his powers for the benefit of parliament. In doing so, Yanukovych finally dismantled the presidential vertical of power in Ukraine. In other words, both sides made an attempt against the state structure, the state power, which looked sufficiently strong before this past April. Now they will both struggle with the consequences of this political crisis. One of the likeliest options for Ukraine’s development, if this does not depend on politicians, is the liquidation of the parliamentary republic.
Ukraine will return to the level of such Central Asian countries as Belarus and Russia, and to a rigid presidential vertical of power, except that someone else, not Yushchenko, will be head of your state, someone tougher, who is capable of ruling Ukraine with an iron hand.
According to media reports, the leader of the Ukrainian communists, Petro Symonenko, took part in the work of the united convention of left-wing parties and the creation of a new Left Party of Germany. Why was Symonenko invited?
Rahr: Symonenko attended the convention as a guest. As for the left- wing parties, the structures of the Communist Party mostly operated in eastern Germany and then became democratized. There are people who hold onto their old convictions. It’s simply difficult to break with certain traditions. The convention ended and the left faction resumed operating in Germany. It has a maximum of 10 percent support from the electorate. That was the only opportunity for Symonenko to make a trip to the West, because he doesn’t have any others. No one invites him to any conventions, so it was useful for him to have this international experience.
Do you think the European Union will succeed in overcoming the constitutional crisis during the summit scheduled for June 21-22?
Rahr: Now that’s a very complicated question. I think that the crisis will not be discussed there. Instead, they will be looking for a way out of the constitutional dead end. It’s just that the ambitions of certain countries were based on creating a political alliance, institute the post of EU president, adopt a joint constitution, and have an all-European army and joint ministry of foreign affairs. All this can be described as ideas of the future, but it could have been realized when the EU had 17 member countries, even better with six members. Now that we have 27 members, this is unrealistic. Everyone will be trying to save face, pretending to be satisfied with the results. I think that the European Union doesn’t have to be in a hurry. There will be no all-European army, no presidency. People live in the EU countries, and their well-being and democracies are on an upward curve. True, there are conflicts within the European Union, between certain countries like Germany and Poland, but these conflicts do not undermine the foundations of the European Union as a strong economic bloc. Europe has a unique chance in its history to continue this course, although by different means. The EU’s internal market is the world’s largest. Mankind has never experienced the kind of living standard that the European Union has, so it is highly unlikely that anyone will call this into question.
The latest stumbling block between Germany and Poland is that Warsaw opposes the constitutional rules for counting the majority of votes (e.g., 55 percent by member countries and 65 percent by the population). Why are the Poles insisting on retaining the old rule that allowed Poland to have practically as many votes as Germany, even though the latter’s population is twice that of Poland?
Rahr: Poland is a country that has a certain historical complex, and this is understandable. This country was always at the crossroads of German and Russian interests. There were times when it could hardly survive and was always under pressure from the West or the East. Certain historical stereotypes have been accumulated. Now nationalists are in power in Poland and they are capitalizing on this. Poland wants to be treated with respect in a future Europe; it wants to be a member of the European Union’s leadership and have a seat in the presidium, not simply in the hall. It wants a seat between Germany and France, not between the Czechs and the Portuguese. So Warsaw is putting on a show, although this is slowing down the process of strengthening the European Union.
