Recently in the European Parliament in Strasbourg was a real “Ukrainian” week. Many politicians, from the Party of Regions and from the opposition, as well as numerous activists, were present in Strasbourg.
What was really common for all of them was the presentation of the genesis of the problems that currently occur to the former prime minister, head of the opposition, Yulia Tymoshenko. The gas agreement with Russia was not signed in accordance with the law and Ms. Tymoshenko accepted financial benefits. Therefore only the sentence that will state the facts – especially the failure of some procedures while signing the contract – can be the base for the possible condemnation of Ms. Tymoshenko and, in the future, for ending the current agreement with Russia. Currently the price of gas in Ukraine is higher then, for example, in Germany.
The case itself would be exciting enough, because, what is commonly known, the respect for the law and for the human rights, freedoms in general, are the priorities of the EU, the European Parliament in particular. But there is also an interesting context of the ongoing negotiations on signing an Association Agreement EU-Ukraine.
As clearly stated in Strasbourg Miroslav Lajcak, the chief negotiator of this agreement on behalf of European External Action Service (EEAS), the Association Agreement is basically ready, as well in its economic as in its political part, and can actually be signed even this semester.
So the question is whether the current, possible rapprochement of Ukraine and the EU will not become a hostage to the fate of Yulia Tymoshenko?
It must be mentioned that a lot of political capital has been invested in Yulia Tymoshenko by partner European parties affiliated to the international EPP, which has majority in most European countries and also at the European Parliament. The recent bad destiny of Yulia Tymoshenko does not bring the glory to those parties and mobilize EPP to defend her.
The existing situation causes emotions that at some point begin to interfere with the process of institutional rapprochement between Ukraine and the EU. Ukrainian Courts do not have a good opinion here in Strasbourg but nobody wants to directly interfere with internal procedures of another country.
The problem is that a prime minister being in prison is becoming a real political problem and there are not many European politicians that would take a risk to explain the procedures of Ukrainian court to their constituents.
What are the possible scenarios? One is that within the legal proceeding the process will be over and we will know whether (and in what mode) the prime minister was charged with allegations and to which extent her defence arguments were accepted by the court. But this would require a great capacity of the court while even courts in countries with better experience in this field could have difficulties reacting so fast. Another scenario is that the agreement will be negotiated, signed and then, its ratification will be delayed, or even completely “blown up.”
Today it is difficult to anticipate exactly which of these scenarios will come true. But one thing is certain. The great silent actor and the only beneficiary of this whole chaos is Russia. The present situation “in velvet gloves” is pushing Ukraine towards the great neighbour. And nobody feels guilty.
