Are the new seven, headed by Xi Jinping, able to cope with the challenges facing the party and the world’s second superpower? In what way can the arrival of the new team affect relations between Beijing and Kyiv? The head of the Department of Foreign Policy at the National Institute for Strategic Studies Andrii HONCHARUK talked about these and other matters in his interview to The Day.
“It is a tradition that there are seven members of the Political Bureau. The number was increased 10 years ago, when the power was passed from Jiang Zemin to Hu Jintao, from the third generation to the fourth. The fact that they went back to the previous number of Political Bureau members and the positions that were omitted this time, signify that this is a step to renewing of Deng Xiaoping’s idea. That is why experts consider this to be a sign of China’s further development in democratic direction.
“The main feature of the new government (this is the fifth generation of leaders) is that, firstly, they witnessed the Cultural Revolution, and secondly, they made careers during the time of the policy of openness. So, they know what they abandon and in what direction they are going. Besides, all the new leaders have climbed the government ladder from the very bottom, so, these are people with an extensive experience of life.
“Therefore, it is logical to think that China’s new government will not only keep to the policies that were observed during the past 20 or 30 years, but might even be a bit more confident with the democratization changes. I am not saying they will implement democracy right away, it is too early to talk about this happening in China. But it is obvious that the democratization process is already taking place.”
By the way, some French media wrote that China was planning to reject Mao’s heritage. What is your opinion on this?
“It could have been written by a person who is not acquainted with Chinese mentality. They will not reject Mao only because he restored China’s greatness. Under Mao, China became powerful again. And this secured Mao’s place on the Tiananmen Square. But the way it will look is a totally different matter. Will it be a mausoleum, or a portrait on the Tiananmen Gate (Gate of Heavenly Peace)? Nowadays, Mao is as much a symbol of China, as the Forbidden City. So, China will definitely not reject Mao. Another matter is that during the past year, a number of events happened that signified the serious backstage fighting between Maoists and moderate democrats, both Hu Jintao and Xi Jinping belonging to the latter.
“The fact that the previously announced transfer of power from Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping took place is an evidence of the strong support of the democratic wing, especially among Chinese elite party members.
“But Chinese nomenklatura should not be compared to that of the Soviet Union. This is an absolutely different world, a Confucian world, and the nation’s attitude towards the government is totally different.”
What forecasts of Xi Jinping’s actions and behavior can be made, considering that he, just like his father, has lived in the US for a year, while Hu Jintao studied in the Soviet Union?
“This is obvious, the young generation is oriented towards the West rather than towards the former Soviet Union experience. Modern youth are more technocratic, Europeanized, and more acquainted with Western values. But they still remain Chinese, let us not forget that Deng Xiaoping also studied in Europe. Yet he remained Chinese, was the second important person in the Communist Party of China, was twice chosen as Mao’s successor, though he was discharged both times. This is also Chinese experience and peculiarities.”
Will it be easy for Ukraine to interact with China, given that the new generation is in power?
“It has never been easy for Ukraine to interact with China, and will never be, because we come from different leagues. But it is clear that China has a considerable interest in Ukraine, and perceives it as an important European country. So that kind of a stable progress Ukraine has got accustomed to, in a way, is profitable for us. I believe that the major challenges for Ukraine-China relations come from Ukraine, and not from China.
“We need to fill these relations with concrete content, and develop tools and mechanisms for attracting investment, among other things. Yet there are a lot of challenges in this area. Therefore, nothing has changed in China in this respect from Ukraine’s perspective. For Ukraine, the state of affairs remains absolutely the same.”
Let us hope that Kyiv will make good use of it.
“A lot here depends also on how efficiently Ukraine will be able to implement all those absolutely correct and smart declarations, made at the top level, in real life via all sorts of concrete projects, agreements, and contracts. For instance, via the Business Council of China. This is what we lack. We have taken a political step, also on the highest official level, but the problem remains how it can be implemented, organizationally and economically.”
And how could it be solved?
“The bilateral government-to-government commission should not only exist on paper, but have its own apparatus engaged in day-to-day routine work. This is what should be done now. For instance, if you take US-China relations, you will see that each year they hold consultations, with dozens of ministers flying across in both directions. It takes a couple of days, but during the year a huge apparatus works, and there is an infrastructure for the relations. So far, we do not have such infrastructure for our relations with China. Sadly, this is our weak point.”
