After the first reaction to the documents on creating a single economic space signed by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, has settled, the course of future developments concerning the formation of this space became quite obvious. Those in power or, to be more precise, those having stable popularity among the voters, have chosen the simplest way, even an elementary one.
Two ways of perceiving the SES have been formed. First is the one everything started from, an attempt to analyze the real economic consequences of the process of creating the SES and their impact on the economy of each of the member states. After familiarizing myself with several dozen experts’ comments in our domestic media outlets it became clear that one can draw totally opposite conclusions from the same facts, operating with figures and referring to legislative acts. Thus, even the initiators of creating the SES fail to give a decent explanation why they did it and what we are going to get in the result.
Much has been written about the Russian authorities needing the SES agreement primarily to raise their standing in the polls on the eve of elections. Less frequent is a further, quite logical, conclusion that even the Russians have a rather vague idea of how the great and terrifying supranational institutions will operate. Such a conclusion destroys our pre-election constructions, which has now shaped clearly and plainly. Down with such complicated political economy! Back to the political basics on the level of “friend or foe.”
The SES agreement became a starting point from which Ukrainian Rightists and Leftists can proceed, not taking the risk of getting lost in the labyrinth of economic terms. Everything became simple and easy, as it used to be back in the blessed 1989 when the Left was for the Soviet Union and the Right for independence. It was quite enough to tell the electors what you were supporting, and you could harvest your crop of votes. Excessive questions about economic programs were swept aside as minor. Exclamations of “Ukraine is in danger!” or “the Fatherland in danger!” at that time made it easy for both Rukh members and Communists to ignore questions they could not or would not have answered.
What do we have now? Like in old days, Rukh is demanding Kuchma’s impeachment for violating the Constitution and committing near treason. The Communists, in their turn, call for a referendum on the SES. Competent people understand that any referendum and impeachment, if not mere words, are doomed to failure. But all this is true only in case that they really want to dismiss Kuchma or listen to public opinion. What if their goal is something else? What if both the Right and Left’s demands are designed to occupy a certain propaganda niche?
If Our Ukraine initiates impeachment, it will have in its disposal the land unplowed and overgrown with Right-Centrist weeds of defending Ukraine’s independence from alleged claims of Moscow, opposing itself to the traitors according to techniques it mastered long ago. The Communists, in their turn, will mount their own corpulent hobbyhorse of eternal friendship with Russia and set out on an inspection trip to the lands where the idea of fighting the nationalists was once quite popular. Thus, our politicians obtain no more profit from the SES than their Russian colleagues. Against the background of supporting or not supporting the Single Economic Space one can remain in the political saddle by reminding the electors about oneself and one’s political leaders.
Under the circumstances, no one dares to speak about the real consequences of signing the SES agreement. What’s done cannot be undone. Having signed the document, the heads of the four countries have begun their electoral discourses in the two of the four states where elections have not yet degenerated into a propaganda farce with easily predicted results. Almost certainly most true political initiatives in Ukraine will be from now on turned down under the convenient and universal excuse of Ukraine being in danger. All this will cease after the elections. Will they then remember the SES, or will it become simply one more of those noncommittal Ukrainian agreements with the post-Soviet states? This is hard to say, for now everyone is far too busy.
