The start of a new political season in parliament and, accordingly, the forthcoming political and economic decisions important for this country’s further development (implementation of the referendum results and the fuel-and-energy complex confrontation) have drawn fresh attention to the Communist faction which seemed to have lost its erstwhile influence on the legislative process. It is in practice obvious that, to win the additional fifty votes required for successful implementation, the parliamentary majority will have to enlist the support of the leftist factions or just buy the number of voting cards required.
Undoubtedly, while overcoming the constitutional barrier of 300 votes remains a crucial problem for the majority, the Communists can hope for a certain political gain in the corridors of power. For it is absolutely clear that the Communist Party’s (KPU) political star is sure to be on the wane unless the party draws conclusions from the mistakes it made in the presidential elections and the January parliamentary crisis. Simultaneously, even one of the most sober-thinking KPU leaders, Hryhory Kriuchkov, said recently that his party aims to change the political course, not the government, which in itself testifies to the crisis of the political prospects of this country’s Communist Party. On the other hand, one more circumstance should be taken into account: cold unheated apartments without hot water and gas, and shrinking real incomes are sure to make our compatriots recall the bygone “prosperity” of the time when “the leading and guiding party” was in power.
In this case the Communists will surely have quite rosy election prospects in the nearest future.
Here follow the comments of our political scientist experts on the KPU’s role in the current political and economic conflicts.
Mykola TOMENKO, director, Institute of Politics:
“I would not exaggerate the role of Communists. Even in terms of quantity, the now largest Communist Party faction is no longer able, in my opinion, to block Verkhovna Rada decisions on its own provided the parliamentary majority or other non- communist factions actively muster their forces. In terms of content and essence, the Communist faction in parliament is showing notable political flexibility and ample mobility under various circumstances. Depending on the situation, it can support a government project or let a presidential proposal go through. Only when it is a question of ideological or philosophical virtue does the faction start to take up arms and try to use its whole quantitative potential. I mean the question of Ukrainian-Russian and Ukrainian- NATO relations, language, and religion policies. As to socioeconomic and even political issues in terms of institutional politics, the Communists are now flexible and dynamic as never before, so I would not look on them as a brake on political decisions.”
Volodymyr FESENKO, political scientist:
“In the dramatic episodes of the parliamentary autumn, the Communists are becoming a sort of joker. What depends, first of all, on their stand (to be more exact, that of a certain part of the Communist Deputies) is final implementation of the Constitutional amendments approved in the national referendum, as well as the destiny of a number of bills. Even the majority now admits that no changes can be introduced in the Constitution without leftist votes. There can be several basic scenarios to solve this problem. The first and least probable one is to reach a basic compromise between the majority and the Left opposition. This scenario will mean searching for the political foundation of a compromise, which requires time, but there is no time in fact. Psychologically also both sides seem to be unprepared for a compromise. For the majority was not formed to bargain with the Left.
“The second and the most promising scenario is to try to wrest a dozen or two “opportunists” from the Left. This is in theory possible. This scenario could envision some secret tactical deals, e.g., a few votes in exchange for keeping Verkhovna Rada intact.
“A third scenario will come about if the second one does not materialize and parliamentary implementation will end in fiasco. Then the pro-presidential forces will have to ponder how to dissolve parliament. Otherwise, the whole constitutional reform will be placed in question. The restructuring of the political theater from above, started last year, envisions a real, not theatrical, split in the Communist Party. In the long run, in the relations between the two centers of the current political structure — the Presidential Administration and KPU — the strategic and tactical initiative belongs to the President’s men on Bankova Street. The Communists will only react passively to the administration’s various political technologies. All the Communists can gain in the current situation is that they are again becoming the center around which the Left opposition can unite and a political force to be reckoned with.”
