For the third week running, the Hongkongers have continued their protest caused by the refusal of Chinese authorities to grant the right to elect chief executive of this autonomous district to its citizens. By the way, this right was promised by the treaty of 1997, when Hong Kong came under the jurisdiction of mainland China according to the principle of “one country, two systems.”
The region’s administration has recently refused to continue talks with the demonstrators. Moreover, Chief Executive of Hong Kong Leung Chun-ying said that the protests were “out of control,” and did not rule out the use of force against them. The official also added that the protesters had no chance to change the central government of the PRC’s position on the 2017 election’s procedure.
Meanwhile, the activists have expressed willingness to continue to defend their rights. The Day turned to head of the National Strategic Research Institute’s sector of growth centers, executive director of the Association of Ukrainian-Chinese Cooperation Serhii KOSHOVY for comments on the situation in Hong Kong and a forecast of the further developments in the region.
“The Chinese government is in a difficult situation. By allowing such liberties to Hong Kong, it is destroying the system laid down by Deng Xiaoping back in his time, that is, the system that allows a Communist China to keep going, although interspersed with some elements of the capitalist system. Another difficulty is the inability to complete the system’s construction by returning Taiwan to the motherland.
“For their part, the Hongkongers defend their rights, as they used to live under this liberal system before 1997. It is clear that a new generation has grown since, and it is them who are too enthusiastic about the changes taking place around them. However, these are not yet changes that can be expected at Hong Kong itself if the transitional system is finally replaced in 2017.”
Is the central government’s response to the demands of the demonstrators adequate?
“The Chinese authorities fear any unrest, especially in a region as special as Hong Kong is. It is a ‘golden goose’ that lays golden eggs both literally and figuratively. Hong Kong remains an important area as a financial center and the monolith which houses the entire edifice of China’s financial stability. International transactions are done through Hong Kong, including huge transaction flows of Chinese state-owned corporations that operate overseas. Hong Kong’s example may affect a number of unstable areas, in particular, Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, where the long-standing Uyghur-Han confrontation has not been resolved.”
Is a compromise between Hong Kong and China possible at all?
“It is hard to say how would such a compromise look like, and it is very actively speculated about now. I do not even rule out a repeat of the 1989 Tiananmen Square events. It may come as the last resort, if the younger generation proves to be too persistent in defending their rights. The Chinese government studied the history of the Ukrainian Euromaidan quite closely, despite its clearly critical position on the issue, and they are well aware of one important thing: the more force they will apply, the greater will be the number of activists in the streets. Therefore, they will attempt to leave the matter unresolved for a while by peaceful means. However, of course, such a situation cannot last indefinitely.
“Any compromises, anything having to do with attacking power structures (manifesting in this case as a lack of support for the current administration of Hong Kong, aspeople demand its removal from power), is disliked by the central government. Any government issues are not up for public to be discussed, let alone competition in China. It is a sacred principle, which, unfortunately, cannot be changed in a democratic manner.”
What further developments do you expect in this crisis?
“I think that a compromise will be reached. It is hard to say now how it will look. However, given the abovementioned factors, such as the city’s high business attractiveness and the importance of Hong Kong in the world, China has to take this into account. A certain amount of distrust has entered the Hong Kong – PRC relationship. The central government of China will try to find a way to punish Hong Kong. I think it would involve largely a gradual promotion of Shanghai to the top role in the Chinese financial industry. It will not happen overnight, but it will serve as a punishment for Hong Kong in the future.”
