This momentous question is once again front-page news. As reported earlier, the Constitutional Court ruled that the draft law on constitutional amendments, known as Bill No. 4180, complies with the Fundamental Law. This means that the political reform may be high on the agenda of Verkhovna Rada debates in the week before Election Day, Oct. 31.
According to the authors of Bill No. 4180, this piece of legislation is aimed at swinging the correlation of powers between the president and parliament in favor of the latter, first of all, with regard to the formation of the cabinet, as well as increasing the level of the government’s responsibility to the people. The document states that, in keeping with the results of the election, parliament will form a coalition of factions comprising the majority of people’s deputies who belong to the constitutional parliamentary body. The coalition will propose the prime minister’s candidature to the president, who will then submit this proposal for parliament’s approval. The Verkhovna Rada’s powers include the appointment of the ministers of defense and foreign affairs at the president’s suggestion and of other cabinet members at the prime minister’s suggestion. In other words, this essentially increases parliament’s influence on the executive branch. The president in turn will obtain additional leverage to dissolve the Verkhovna Rada. Should the president cease to hold office before his term expires, his powers will be exercised by the Verkhovna Rada speaker, not the premier, as is the case now, until such time as a new head of state is elected and assumes office.
Under the draft law’s concluding and transitional provisions, the law takes effect on the day the president of Ukraine, to be elected in the 2004 elections, assumes office, except for a number of articles and clauses that come into force on the day the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, which will be elected in 2006, meets in session. Until then, the Verkhovna Rada elected in 2002 continues to exercise its constitutional powers. The Cabinet of Ministers formed prior to the day that the President of Ukraine, who will be elected in the regular 2004 elections, assumes office continues to exercise its constitutional powers until this law takes effect.
As Bill No. 4180 on constitutional amendments is not identical to Bill No. 4150 passed by parliament last April, it can be put to the vote again, said Justice Pavlo Yevhrafov in a statement to the press about the Constitutional Court ruling. One of the reasons why the right opposition refused to support Bill No. 4180 was the constitutional provision that the Fundamental Law amendments, once rejected by parliament, may not be put to the vote again that year. Mr. Yevhrafov revealed that ten out of sixteen Constitutional Court judges voted for this ruling. Asked about the prospects of parliament passing Bill No. 4180, Mr.Yevhrafov said the Constitutional Court was not supposed to make comments. But he noted that, although this was the fourteenth bill on constitutional amendments referred to the Constitutional Court, none of the amendments has been passed.
People’s deputies hold opposing views about the prospects of the political reform, as they do with regard to the Constitutional Court ruling. Some of them still hope they will manage to vote on Bill No. 4180, if not before the first round then between the first and second rounds of the presidential elections, while others are ruling out in principle the possibility of passing this bill.
The Communist and Socialist leaders Petro Symonenko and Oleksandr Moroz promised at the very outset that their supporters would vote in favour of it. In Mr. Moroz’s view, parliament can debate the bill and put it to the vote within one week. The SPU head also announced that he had drawn up a motion “that raises the possibility of a compromise.”
“Whoever is not willing to reach this compromise will bear the blame for this law not being passed. I think there are some opportunities today. There is still a chance, though it is slimmer than it was in April,” the Socialist leader stressed.
In the view of Yury Kostenko, leader of the Ukrainian People’s Party and member of the Our Ukraine faction, the Constitutional Court “has said nothing new.” Mr. Kostenko said he did not believe that the political reform might be carried out before the presidential elections: “This will be done by a different majority in different conditions.”
Nestor Shufrych, Social Democratic Party of Ukraine (United) faction, noted: “We must have missed our historical chance... the whole parliament must show a lot of good will, and each people’s deputy should have a feeling of responsibility to the people of Ukraine” if the law is to be passed. The deputy emphasized that Verkhovna Rada Speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn would play “a very important role” in this matter. “If somebody uses this critical moment to solve his opportunistic and short-lived issues, history will never forgive us,” Mr. Shufrych said.
As usual, Stepan Havrysh, presidential candidate Viktor Yanukovych’s representative in the Central Electoral Commission, and the coordinator of the parliamentary majority, proved to be one of the staunchest optimists with respect to the political reform issue. But he, too, did not venture to guarantee a positive result. In Mr. Havrysh’s opinion, the Verkhovna Rada still stands a chance of passing the constitutional amendments prior to the election runoff. The majority coordinator stressed that Premier Yanukovych’s team takes a generally pragmatic view of the political reform. “I hope our allies — the Communists and Socialists — are taking the same pragmatic and tough attitude, but this is not enough to reach a national consensus,” he said. Rayisa Bohatyrova, leader of the Regions of Ukraine faction, is also in favor of implementing the political reform before the elections. In her words, failure to do so “will lead to the acute problem of dismantling the politico- legal pattern that the Verkhovna Rada has begun building within the political reform’s framework.” In particular, this may lead to repealing the law on proportional representation elections of all levels. “After all, this was a compromise on the part of the majority, and we expected the opposition to vote for the constitutional amendments,” the deputy said.
To sum up, the majority and the left opposition, i.e., the forces that used to give wholehearted support to the idea of establishing a parliamentary-presidential republic by passing certain constitutional amendments, are now less optimistic. This leads one to the conclusion that at least an attempt will be made to revise the price of the “Grand Prix” before the end of the presidential campaign. In all probability, the result will greatly depend on the cost of the compromise that the interested parties should reach.
INCIDENTALLY
President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma does not think it expedient to the constitutional reform to the vote before the presidential elections. At the same time, the head of state feels sure that the reform will be carried out after the elections. “In my personal opinion, this [reform] should not be attempted before the elections. No use breaking lances and inviting speculations,” Interfax Ukraine quotes him as saying. “And if the next president understands what lies in the offing, the first thing he will do, at the very first session of parliament after the elections, he will raise the matter and I’m sure that he will be supported by at least forty votes,” said the president, reaffirming his stand as an “inveterate exponent” of the reform.
He is echoed by presidential candidate and Premier Viktor Yanukovych. Considering that there is very little time left till the elections, the latter believes that voting on the reform at the Verkhovna Rada would be inexpedient. He further believes that the last week in parliament before the elections will be used by the MPs “for political purposes.” He said, in particular, that the political reform is necessary to increase the government’s efficiency, and pointed to the need to delegate some central power to the regions as a compulsory element of the reform. The prime minister, however, did not specify the political reform’s timeframe, saying only, “time will show.”
Our Ukraine’s presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko takes precisely the opposite stand, saying that the political reform, now that the Constitutional Court has passed its ruling, will not become a reality. At the same time, Yushchenko believes that Ukraine needs “a reform that will democratize the political system and clearly delimits the branches of power.”
