Last Monday Our Ukraine finally completed its long trek to the opposition. Its leader Roman Bezsmertny made an official statement in parliament. “For the last two months we have been witnessing the collapse of Ukraine’s foreign and domestic policies, which were supported by the Ukrainian people during the presidential election. The process of integrating with the WTO has been disrupted, and Ukraine-EU cooperation programs have been suspended. On top of that, Ukraine’s accession to NATO has been undergoing a drastic change,” Our Ukraine’s leader stated.
Bezsmertny underscored that changes are occurring both in Ukraine’s foreign and domestic policies. He pointed out that the government is pursuing a policy of “economic absurdity.” “Under these conditions Our Ukraine has pulled out of the negotiations, we’ve joined the opposition, and our ministers are leaving the government,” he noted. Nevertheless, the Our Ukraine leader did not specify when exactly the “Orange” ministers would leave the government.
In any case, since Monday, Oct. 16, 2006, Ukraine has had two oppositions: the BYuT and Our Ukraine. But they have not started talks on cooperation, and it is not clear if they will. So far, Our Ukraine is gathering parties that did not qualify for parliamentary seats to its oppositional confederation, known as European Ukraine. A BYuT member, Oleksandr Turchynov, dubbed these efforts “political whims.” He recalled that there was a time when the BYuT, Our Ukraine, and the SPU signed an agreement on forming a coalition of democratic forces, and Our Ukraine did not rescind its signature. “This is the very reason for forming an oppositional government. That agreement even has all the positions distributed. I think any new formats and ideas will lead to mockery.”
Experts even doubt that Our Ukraine will join any united opposition formation in parliament, as this would mean Yulia Tymoshenko’s leadership. “There will be two competing oppositions in parliament — the BYuT and Our Ukraine,” says Volodymyr Fesenko. “Of course, it would be logical and reasonable for these two oppositional factions to interact instead. Whether or not they will be able to do that is a serious question because both now and in future they are rivals struggling for the oppositionally-minded electorate.” Still, this political analyst thinks that Our Ukraine will not be entirely oppositional as long as Viktor Yushchenko is in power. Our Ukraine will be maintaining its semi-oppositional status in the near political future,” Fesenko believes.
Nonetheless, a question arises: does Our Ukraine have political prospects? What are they?
It is clear that the president is seeking to distance himself from his political force. For example, he appointed Oleksandr Zinchenko his advisor, which looked like a slap in the face of his “dear friends.” Almost at the same time Viktor Baloha, the head of the Presidential Secretariat, announced that the head of state can abdicate his title of honorary chairman of Our Ukraine People’s Union.
Evidently, “Our Ukrainians” will have a hard time if this scenario is implemented. It can completely undermine their political influence, and this political force also has an internal crisis to boot.
According to Fesenko, one way out of this situation is to rebrand, i.e., to give a new name and new leadership to the party and the bloc. As for the upcoming congress, Fesenko argues that minor conflicts are possible, as well as a partially new leadership and attempts to devise a new formula for relations with the president. “Our Ukraine cannot go and cut that umbilical cord of its relations with the president for this will result in its political death.
“On the other hand, the president will not benefit from rejecting Our Ukraine because he does not have another instrument to influence parliament, another political force under his control. The only question is to find the most effective formulas of interaction between the head of state and his political brainchild. I think Mr. Yushchenko should remember the famous words of Antoine de Saint-Exupery: You are responsible for those whom you have tamed. So, President Yushchenko is responsible for Our Ukraine that he once formed and tamed.”
