The opening of the eleventh parliamentary session of the sixth convocation has started the new political season. What will it be? The Day addressed this question to the political expert Volodymyr FESENKO:
“First of all, we should expect intrigues around the parliamentary election. Therefore, the logic of the election will significantly influence the work of the Verkhovna Rada. They will have to deal with some important issues anyway, such as the budget for the next year. Moreover, there is a new intrigue now which is the language law. Since the adopted law on the language policy has given the reason for loud information and political wars, they will, probably, examine a new one. The question is: will they do it before or after the election? Anyway, the parliamentary platform will be used for stumping. The conflicts we will see in the parliament will also be connected with the election. All the political forces will use the Verkhovna Rada in their interests: for initiation of bills and creation or promotion of different information.”
Should we expect any aggravation during the election or nonstandard situations?
“Of course, they can happen. Obviously, the struggle will be serious at the end of the election campaign. Just after the election the question of its legitimacy will arise. There might be provocations from both sides. It is quite possible. The governing party is facing a serious political dilemma. Of course, they want to win the election not only in majority constituencies, but with the party lists as well. However, there is a problem. The rating of the Party of Regions is very close to the rating of the Consolidated Opposition. If the opposition takes the second place, it will significantly aggravate the problem of acknowledging the results of the election. The dilemma of the governing party is the following: on the one hand, they want to win, on the other hand, there is a need to legitimize the election.”
What are the odds on non-recognition of the election?
“This danger exists. As far as I understand, the opposition also has the partisans of this strategy. However, it seems to me that most of the opposition leaders are going to struggle for the victory at least in the party lists. Having a fraction in the Verkhovna Rada is very important for them since not being in parliament is a great risk that might result in losing their influence. The discussion about the recognition of the election results will be very hot. In this regard the question of legitimacy of the election in the majority constituencies is more problematic. There will be more problems, violations and dirt there. The international observers will face a problem: what they should do with this information and how they should consider it.”
What are the chances of political forces now?
“Today there are two main favorites that will struggle for the first place in the party lists: the Party of Regions and the Consolidated Opposition. The situation is unlikely to change dramatically. Using the administrative resource will not help to win the election. It will create problems for the opponents but will not bring additional votes, of course, if we are not speaking about fraud. The administrative resource will make a problem in majority constituencies. It will have its influence there. Considering that in the constituencies in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine the Consolidated Opposition and UDAR cannot seriously compete with the Party of Regions, the governing party will win the election. Vitalii Klitschko’s party UDAR is likely to take the third place competing with the Communist Party. The question is how many votes they will be able to get from the governing party on its territory. Another intrigue is if the parties Ukraina Vpered and Svoboda will get into the Verkhovna Rada. Today they are on the edge on the five-percent barrier. That will be known on the last day of the election. We will also see interesting intrigues in separate majority constituencies. Even now we can see that there will be vehement strife in Odesa – between Oleksii Honcharenko and Ihor Markov and in Lutsk – between Ihor Palytsia and the current governor Borys Klimchuk (interestingly, both of them are self-nominated candidates). There will be a lot of intrigues.”
