The meeting of CIS presidents ending June 21 showed a major trend in post-Soviet international relations, placing major emphasis on bilateral diplomacy, meaning that multilateral diplomacy has actually come to an end; from now on it will be a mere backdrop for real political processes, talks, consultations, and actions. Even a brief analysis of the summit’s principal resolution makes this much clear. The establishment of the antiterrorist center looks as though it were a propaganda maneuver needed primarily by Russia. CIS special services already cooperate on terrorist threats. This leaves one wondering whether this center will assist Azerbaijan in the extradition of its ex- President Ayaz Mutalibov, believed to be a conspirator and accomplice to the attempt on Geydar Aliyev. Mutalibov lives in Russia. Georgadze, former chief of Georgia’s secret police who is believed by Georgia to have organized an attempt on Eduard Shevardnadze, also lives in Russia.
Now about a free trade zone. Once again the issue was shelved despite the principled stand taken by Ukrainian Premier Viktor Yushchenko. Once again Kyiv received no support from its CIS partners — i.e., those that had promised it and then looked the other way under Mikhail Kasyanov’s unwavering stare. Personally, I think there was nothing coincidental about Leonid Kuchma meeting with Vladimir Putin before the CIS summit. Most likely, the meeting was arranged to prevent Ukrainian-Russian disagreement. Was the peacekeeping contingent withdrawn from Tajikistan? No, it was renamed. From now on the stability of the regime which is largely dependent on Russia’s military presence will be secured by Russian military bases, without any CIS appellations.
Small wonder then that the CIS leaders should discuss the weather before television cameras: it’s raining cats and dogs in Moscow. But that’s a good sign! Welcome guests must be greeted by a heavy rain. I strongly suspect that once the cameras were turned off, the topic changed as did the whole atmosphere. Putin knows what he wants from each and every CIS colleague; unlike Yeltsin, he does not specially care for buddy-buddy contacts with his partners. And so the main task of those trying to resist Moscow’s concept of further development of the “Soviet space” is to think over the resources they can bring to bear to do so.
