The European Union is still expecting that Kyiv will implement the necessary reforms and make headway on the road to Europe. These were the assurances that Brussels gave to Ukraine’s Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov. But EU officials reminded him that Orange Revolution euphoria has evaporated and it is now time to act.
“Ukraine’s future is in Europe, but the country should achieve concrete and pragmatic results,” said the president of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, after his meeting with Yekhanurov. EC Vice President Siim Kallas added that “our partners must understand that their future depends on them.” Addressing the conference “Ukraine Looks to the Future: On the Road of Reforms,” Kallas said that curbing corruption is the main challenge for Ukraine. He regards the coming parliamentary elections “a litmus test” for this country’s democratic ways. Ukraine must also carry out political reforms and separate business from politics.
During his first visit to Brussels, Ukraine’s new prime minister promised that Ukraine will join the WTO this year and then start talks with the European Union on establishing a free trade area. He believes Ukraine may obtain market-economy status at the EU-Ukraine summit on Dec. 1. The prime minister also hopes that the EU will relax the visa regime for Ukrainians — first for students, businessmen, academics, and journalists and then for other individuals. Yekhanurov did not venture to predict the state of Kyiv-Brussels relations in the next two years, when the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement expires. Although he did not indicate the date of Ukraine’s entry into the EU, he is sure of one thing: we do not want to knock on the EU door as though we are poor relations.
Yekhanurov was in a privileged position in Brussels if only because our European partners could not put many ticklish questions to him about the state of Ukrainian reforms: he cannot answer for the old cabinet. But the European Union is looking forward to changes for the better as promised by the Orange Revolution leaders, although they are aware that the reforms will be more painful than one would like. “Yes, some people are disappointed with the course of transformations in Ukraine because the Orange Revolution was such a beautiful image. But we also know that the forces behind the revolution are often unable to work effectively afterwards. So the period of political instability may be considered a step toward normalization. This is my point of view, but naturally, many people who do not know Ukraine and at first saw just the flags of the Orange Revolution and now see political confusion are clearly disappointed. Still I am optimistic,” said Michael EMERSON, senior associate at the Center of European Political Studies, in an interview with The Day. Among those who share this viewpoint is Geoffrey MORSKY, a fellow of the European Institute of International Relations. “The revolution in Ukraine was so splendid and unexpected that it aroused great hopes. Yushchenko and his government are pursuing a practically unattainable goal: to do in a short time what people had been dreaming of. The same thing happened in Georgia. It’s a critical moment in Ukraine now. My grandfather, a diaspora Ukrainian, says he never expected in his lifetime that this would occur in Ukraine. But at the same time my joy is mixed with sadness because changes for the better will be accompanied by great difficulties,” Morsky told The Day.
As before, the European Parliament also believes in Ukrainian reforms. The Polish vice-president of the EU, Jacek Dariusz-Wolski, is impressed with the Orange Revolution but warns, “The time of eloquent declarations has passed. The time for hard work has come.” Addressing the Brussels conference, Dariusz-Wolski gave Ukraine three pieces of advice: first, remember that you are carrying out all the reforms for yourselves, not for the European Union; second, European integration is an incentive for the modernization of Ukraine, while EU membership is a trophy on the road to transformations; and, third, Ukraine will have to go a long way before being admitted to the EU; this is a task of an entire generation.
Once again Ukraine was reminded that it should work hard. Nobody is promising membership in the elite EU club, but if the reforms are successful, they may rethink Kyiv’s candidacy. No one can predict the finale. The fact remains that if Ukraine is admitted to the European Union, it may have a lot of clout there: as the fifth most populous country in Europe (after Germany, France, Britain, and Italy, let alone Turkey, an EU candidate), Ukraine should have the same number of votes as the other countries, when important decisions are made in the EU Council of Ministers. Does Brussels really need this? At the moment this is out of the question, if you look at the state of the Ukrainian economy and the way reforms are being carried out. But once Ukraine gains EU candidate status, the union will have to spend enormous funds on developing the various Ukrainian regions in order to bring them to the average European level. And should Kyiv join the European Union, no matter how hypothetical this sounds, Brussels will have to subsidize Ukraine’s farmers.
Oleksandr Chaly, former state secretary of Ukraine for European integration and vice-president of the Industrial Group, believes that Kyiv should not be raising the question of EU entry at all. In his view, Ukrainian diplomats should have applied for EU membership right after the Orange Revolution, and now the chance has been lost. “The Europeans persuaded our European integrators to wait until the Action Plan is fulfilled and only then to apply. But we are now seeing that Ukraine’s real chances and support are dwindling. We should not press for accession and take it off the agenda. Instead, we have to assume the Swiss or Norwegian form of sector approach. We must go forward in the sectors where it is profitable for us to cooperate and integrate, but we should pursue a more balanced European integration policy in the sectors where the EU is seeking faster integration on our part, but this runs counter to our national interests.”
For the time being, the Ukrainian leadership is banking on integration with the European Union. However, it takes patience and fulfillment of the commitments taken to achieve the ultimate goal — accession to the EU. So far, Ukraine has failed to show an inclination to do this.
