The latest events in the Donbas, particularly the shelling of Mariupol’s residential areas by rebel fighters on January 24, which claimed over 30 human lives, have drawn a wide response in the West. European Union member countries’ heads of state and government urged the EU Foreign Affairs Council to consider the possibility of taking further restrictive measures against Russia at its meeting on January 29. But now that a left-wing government has come to power in Greece and the new premier has said that this document was not agreed upon with Athens, many experts are calling into question the toughening of sanctions against Moscow.
The Day has requested Roland FREUDENSTEIN, Deputy Director, Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, a think tank of the European People’s Party, to say whether the change of government in Greece will affect the decision to ratchet up sanctions against Russia and what strategy the West should pursue under these circumstances.
“IT WILL BE A BIG PROBLEM TO PERSUADE GREECE TO SUPPORT THE NEW SANCTIONS”
“The point is that ministers have never planned strategic sanctions, as it was done during the third round last July after a Malaysian airliner was downed. All they plan is sanctions aimed at specific individuals, including assets freeze and entry ban. This means there may be grounds for a compromise with the Greek government which has said it may oppose or even veto the new sanctions. But we cannot be 100-percent sure of this. Clearly, the new Greek government wants to be as much friendly with Russia as possible. The Kremlin maintains ties with the Syriza party and Independent Greeks, the coalition’s junior partner. Greece’s new Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias is a friend of Aleksandr Dugin. And this must worry us.”
Even after a tough statement of the Council of Ministers about the necessity to impose new sanctions on Russia?
“Indeed, it was a tough statement. But we are deeply concerned that consensus in the European Union looks weaker. I don’t have the faintest idea of how this will reflect on the question of new sanctions. But I am quite sure it will be a big problem to persuade Greece to support further sanctions.”
“WE HAVE A FEW WEEKS TO REACH A NEW CONSENSUS IN THE EU”
It is, of course, very likely that, due to Athens’ obstruction, the EU will fail to introduce new, even limited, sanctions which are proposed in the draft resolution of the Foreign Ministers Council. And can Greece use its right to veto and have the existing EU sanctions against Russia lifted?
“This is impossible legally and technically. The current sanctions will remain in force within a year after being approved. The first package of sanctions against individuals was approved in March and April 2014. Accordingly, there can only be a question of extending them in March-April 2015.
“Naturally, Greece may vote against. But this will be, by and large, a symbolic step because these sanctions have had almost no impact. But the sanctions that had a really painful effect on the Russian economy and especially on the banking sector were approved in July 2014. Their extension can be discussed in July 2015 only. So, we have a few months to reach a new consensus in the European Union. I hope this will be done.”
And will the call of President Obama and Chancellor Merkel to toughen sanctions against Russia and increase assistance to Ukraine have any impact on the decision of the EU Foreign Ministers Council?
“It became absolutely clear after a recent unilateral escalation of violence in Donetsk and rocket attack on Mariupol and its outskirts that it was not the fault of both sides – the Russia-backed separatists began to seize more territory and make wider use of artillery, especially against the civilians. In all these instances, no Ukrainian armed forces involvement was detected. It was obviously a unilateral escalation of violence. This is why Obama and Merkel stressed in their statements that the Russian government, which controls the Donbas situation, continued to breach the main and the most important part of the Minsk agreements.”
Do you think the US will act unilaterally should the ministers fail to reach a consensus in Brussels about further sanctions against Russia?
“I think the United States will behave irrespective of what the European Union will decide.”
“RUSSIA IS INTERESTED IN THE RESTORATION OF AN EMPIRE, DESTABILIZATION OF UKRAINE, AND THE WEAKENING OF THE EU AND NATO”
Has Europe understood yet the true goal of Putin in Ukraine?
“This is a moot point. I would say no. Europe has not yet understood it fully. We can still hear the calls to the Russian government to deliver on the Minsk agreements. And even if these calls are serious, they are based on a wrong presumption that Russia is interested in peace and stable development of the countries it borders on. In reality, it is not true. Incidentally, this was formulated in Federica Mogherini’s document which listed the interests of Russia and the EU. There were some formal things among the Russian interests, including one that Russia is interested in the lifting of sanctions, cooperation with the EU, etc. But I am afraid it is not true. Russia is interested in the restoration of an empire and destabilization of Ukraine; it wants to instill fear in its neighbors. Besides, Russia is interested in the weakening of the EU and NATO. But the document says nothing about these interests of Russia, which makes the picture incomplete.”
What should then the EU and the US do to cause Russia to renounce aggression – in other words, to backtrack?
“Nothing can stop Russia or cause it to backtrack in the immediate future. All we can do is raise the costs of Russia’s aggression. We should also tell Russia and some other countries, such as China, in clear-cut terms that the West is not going to leave aggression against other sovereign states without a response. In my view, sanctions will have a long-term effect on Russia – we can see this even now. The Russian economy is in dire straits, largely due to some domestic problems, but the sanctions have undoubtedly contributed to the slump. I think the time will come when the Russians will be more looking into the fridge than at the TV screen. In other words, they will stop believing in ‘Novorossia’ – a piece of mindless Eurasian propaganda – and will see that what they like in Putin will not fill their fridges in the future. And when they come to understand this, we will be speaking of a totally different situation.”
