It seems that the German elites are increasingly warming up to the idea of easing sanctions against Russia, which annexed Crimea and is continuing its aggression in eastern Ukraine. We would like to remind out readers that it was Germany, as the most powerful and influential EU country, that shaped Europe’s stand on sanctions against Russia.
The shift in Germany’s hardline stand is confirmed in an article in Der Spiegel titled “Step-by-Step Rapprochement: Germany Considers Easing of Russia Sanctions.” According to the German paper, the Merkel government long ago developed concrete step-by-step plans of easing of the sanctions against Russia, and the process might have been launched even early this year.
Obviously, this is contrary to the earlier statements to the effect that trade and visa restrictions could only be lifted after the terms of Minsk 2 agreements are fulfilled. A total lift in return for 100 percent fulfillment, emphasized Der Spiegel.
As expected, the concluding declaration at the Japanese summit confirmed the G-7’s hardline approach to Moscow. On May 26, Merkel even complained that there is no stable ceasefire in the east of Ukraine, and the law on elections in the occupied territories is still not passed, as foreseen by the Minsk Protocol. Because of that, added she, the West cannot be expected to change its approach to Russia.
Yet the statements made by other German politicians suggest something quite opposite. In particular, at a German-Russian economy forum in Rostock Germany’s economy minister Sigmar Gabriel said that “isolation is not at all helpful.” According to him, Russia and the world depend on each other, and therefore the time has come to gradually ease the sanctions.
By the way, even before that, Ukraine’s Embassy in Germany had asked the federal foreign ministry to explain if such statements by the economy minister and vice chancellor Gabriel on the easing of the sanctions reflect the position of the German government. “Experience shows that such sanctions are only successful when all terms and conditions are met. In Russia’s case, the international community also needs strategic patience, unity, and firmness,” said the head of Ukraine’s diplomatic mission in Berlin Andrii Melnyk in his interview to Der Tagesspiegel. He also criticized Gabriel’s use of the term “civil war” as “insulting and unfair” to many Ukrainians. “There is irrefutable evidence that Russia not only fully controls the puppets in Donetsk and Luhansk, providing them with weapons and money, but also sends its soldiers, officers, and mercenaries there,” said the Ukrainian diplomat.
Apparently, the German foreign ministry has not heard these words, or will not hear them. Two days ago German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier spoke about Germany’s willingness to “intelligently” use sanctions against Russia. “When progress is made on the implementation of the Minsk Protocol, we can also then talk about easing sanctions,” emphasized Steinmeier. Yet the Minsk Protocol includes 11 paragraphs, the first and most important ones of which concern ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons, and monitoring of the Ukrainian-Russian border – which Russia is not even going to fulfill. So why should it be rewarded with easing the sanctions?
Meanwhile, the abovementioned plan envisages partial lifting of the sanctions in return for Moscow’s cooperation in holding elections in the occupied Donbas. Moreover, it concerns lifting travel restrictions for Russian MPs and some government officials. Also a possibility is considered to reduce the interval for revising the sanctions from six to three months, according to Der Spiegel.
Ukraine takes the recent German statements concerning the easing of the sanctions against Russia quite seriously. Melnyk said to The Day: “Unfortunately, this risk has appeared. We are thinking on the ways of countering it. Tomorrow foreign minister Klimkin is coming to Berlin.”
The Day asked Ukrainian and international experts to comment on such a worrying twist in Germany’s policy and suggest what Ukraine’s government should do to prevent the easing of sanctions.
“PUTIN WILL SEE THE EASING OF SANCTIONS AS THE EU’S INABILITY TO COUNTER HIS AGGRESSION”
Volodymyr OHRYZKO, former foreign minister of Ukraine, Kyiv:
“We need to distinguish the approach of Steinmeier and his Social-Democratic Party from that of Merkel. The federal chancellor, despite her key Social-Democratic partner’s attempts to make concessions to Putin, clearly demanded (and also initiated) that the sanctions not only remain, but possibly be revised and tightened. And this is an important message. Also, after Gabriel’s statements, made at that forum, the tensions in the German government will only increase.
“As far as trends go, I do not think that the sanctions will be eased now, because Steinmeier said in his speech that the sanctions must correspond to a certain category of Russia’s actions. But this does not mean that such approach will overcome in Germany.
“On the other hand, we see that France and Germany insist that we hold those fake elections as soon as possible, and effectively integrate this perilous region into Ukraine. But this depends on the political will of the Ukrainian leadership, which will either conduct a policy beneficial to our national interests or give in to pressure.
“If the EU, under such circumstances, makes the concessions as described by Der Spiegel, it will shoot itself in the foot. Putin will see the easing of sanctions as the EU’s inability to counter his aggression. If the political leaders are that short-sighted, they will pay a much higher price for that. But it will happen somewhat later.
“Concerning the visit of Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, to the forum in St. Petersburg, it was an ill-judged political decision which will bring the EU nothing positive. The reaction of Juncker’s colleagues in the EU and US was corresponding. At the same time I do not think that he will advocate the EU’s general approach there. Yet, given certain sentiments in the EU, he must demonstrate that he is keeping the communication channel with Moscow open and can discuss all important issues with Russians. I think this is the only sense of this trip, which is still on the cards. It is far from certain that it will take place, after all.”
Do you think that Britain, Poland, and the Baltic States (which support the preservation of the sanctions) could give in and support the step-by-step plan of easing of the restrictive measures against the Russian Federation in return for the increasing of the military presence on their territories (as suggested by German mass media)?
“We have always assumed that Poland, the Baltic States, and the UK are the countries which realize perfectly well what Russian policy means. As a matter of fact, swapping the increase of NATO military presence on one’s territory for the easing of sanctions by the EU are two different things. We still have to see the NATO summit in Warsaw, which will pass quite clear-cut decisions with regard to restricting Russia. And against that backdrop, the lifting or easing of the sanctions would look rather comical. If the NATO countries (the majority of which are, in fact, in the EU) take restrictive measures in a certain sphere, how can this restriction be implemented by easing economic sanctions? I see a discrepancy here. Therefore, we should probably assume that at that stage, after debates and discussions, the sanctions will be prolonged, but alas not tightened. While NATO will go over to real policies that would fit not their fantasies about a dovish Russia, but the Kremlin’s real recent actions on the international arena.”
“THE PRESSURE IS GROWING TO LIFT THE SANCTIONS”
Roland FREUDENSTEIN, deputy director of the Martens Center, Brussels:
“Indeed, the pressure is growing to lift the sanctions. In itself, the demand is not new, we’ve been at this point many times before, but Merkel always managed to uphold the sanctions, invoking unity. Now the appeasers, a coalition of ‘usual suspects’ (Italy, Hungary, Austria, France, Greece, and German Social Democrats), have adopted new tactics, calling for a partial lifting, in return for partial implementation of Minsk 2. At least the lifting is supposed to concern the less important part: the individual travel bans imposed in summer 2014. That’s less dramatic than what I feared. But it is still the wrong thing to do, and opens the path to more appeasement because there is only one way the Kremlin will interpret it: weakness. Ukraine should do two things: targeted lobbying of the appeasers in the EU, reminding them of Russian aggression against Ukraine, and accelerated reforms, including fighting corruption. Also passing legislation on local elections in Donbas provided they are free and fair (the ‘rebels’ won’t comply anyway). There is still a chance to turn around the tendency towards appeasement in the EU.”
