This is the title — even without the question mark — of an article by the American Stratfor Analytical Center. The article is based on the analysis of recent talks between the Gazprom management and four European companies in Paris. The subject of the talks was building a new Russian West- bound natural gas pipeline across Belarus and Poland bypassing Ukraine.
Stratfor analysts stress that Western Europe, accepting Moscow’s proposal to bypass the territory of Ukraine and build the Yamal-Europe pipeline, automatically “places itself in the ironic position of helping fund the Russian domination of its former satellite (i.e., Ukraine — Author).” By assisting Russia in building pipelines that bypass Ukraine, Europe will get a more secure energy supply, but at the cost of damaging the West’s decade-long policy of bolstering Ukrainian independence, US researchers claim. The main reason why Ukraine will fall under Russian domination is that Kyiv will have to pay for Russian gas (it has no other supplier of this product so far) in hard currency. It will also reduce Ukraine’s ability to siphon off gas. Taking into account that coal use in Ukraine has dropped by over a third since 1992 and the output of nuclear energy is sure to decrease significantly after the Chornobyl shutdown this coming December, it becomes clear that Ukraine will fall into still greater dependence on its northeastern neighbor.
Kyiv’s only and perhaps temporary hope is the support of Warsaw which is trying to urge Moscow to lay the pipeline across the Ukrainian territory. It is rather doubtful that support for this could come from the Western European countries which have formed a special commission to consider the implementation of the new scenario for the Russian gas project. Western Europe is very concerned about a possible energy crisis in the region. Constant problems with oil, such as price hikes, have dealt a powerful blow to these countries, and they will now try to be on the safe side to forestall the same situation with natural gas. The Norwegian blue fuel, now capable of keeping Western Europe afloat to some extent will suffice for only 25 years, according to scientific forecasts. This is why all eyes are now looking at such a supplier as Russia. But the latter is setting a condition of its own: bypass Ukraine. If Western Europe lets itself be led by Moscow, all Ukraine will have to do is “be handed” to Russia.
What must have been totally unexpected for the Ukrainian leadership was the latest gas-pipeline statement by the Slovak Minister of the Economy, Lubomir Garach who, staying in Moscow recently, said that the construction of a Russian gas pipeline across Slovakia, bypassing Ukraine, is one of the top-priority projects of bilateral Slovak-Russian cooperation. I would like to believe Mr. Garach did not express the opinion of all the members of his country’s government; I would also like to believe that Moscow journalists must have mixed something up while relaying this information. Yet, Bratislava’s behavior is quite easy to explain: its own national interests take priority despite all assurances of friendship.
Obviously, the Slovak surprise is only one of the first “bypass” surprises to be expected from partner states. They deserve no condemnation: one should not lay the blame at somebody else’s door (Ukraine really has siphoned off Russian gas). In addition, implementation of this new Russian gas project can help Kyiv open its eyes and show who really is who, as has already happened with the An-70 project, for example.
