Last week seemed to confirm that the Orange Revolution has borne its first fruits, as far as European integration is concerned. First the British daily The Guardian and then official Kyiv published the sensational results of a public opinion poll conducted in France, Germany, the UK, Poland, Italy, and Spain, which proved that the population of these key European Union countries mainly supports Ukraine’s accession to the EU. Kyiv was also the destination last week of a number of European delegations as well as the foreign ministers of Germany and Poland. They came to map out a policy of concrete steps rather than make promises. Add to this the visits of a delegation of French entrepreneurs and the Dutch foreign ministry board, as well as the forthcoming talks between the Ukrainian leadership and EU Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner, and it becomes clear that a “mass attack” like this was simply unthinkable a few months ago.
So we have gotten off to a flying start. The results may prove to be unexpected for everyone, including Ukrainians. The survey that caused a real sensation in EU political circles was conducted by TNS-Sofres during February 24-March 8 in six EU member states, which the company claims account for 75% of the entire EU population. The poll was held at the request of the Yalta European Strategy, a non-governmental organization whose board of directors includes Ukrainian MP Viktor Pinchuk, British MP Steven Byers, European Parliament member Marek Siwiec, and manager of CIS programs at the German Foreign Policy Society Alexander Rahr. The results show that in Germany alone nearly half of the respondents (41%) favor Ukraine’s European integration, while respondents in other countries voted as follows: 58% in France, 62% in Italy, 77% in Poland, 60% in Spain, and 49% in the UK. The admission of Turkey, which is going to begin accession talks shortly, was supported by 37% of French respondents, 36% of Germans, 49% of Italians, 55% of Poles, 50% of Britons, and 49% of Spaniards. Incidentally, Russia had a slightly higher percentage of European supporters in this poll, while Morocco ranked even higher than Turkey, although Morocco is not a European country in any sense. There were the following arguments in favor of Ukraine’s accession: it is part of Europe (39% of respondents in all 6 countries); will help strengthen democracy in Ukraine (36%); will boost trade with the latter (27%); and Ukraine risked incurring the wrath of Russia, so it must be supported (26%). Opponents raised the following arguments: Ukraine should redouble its efforts to democratize itself (40% of respondents in all 6 countries); Ukraine is a poor country (36% in all 6 countries and 42% in Poland); the EU should not be enlarged any further (31%); and Ukraine is not part of Europe (21%).
All this indicates that the Orange Revolution broke the ice precisely in the area where change is the slowest and most difficult, i.e., in the perception of ordinary individuals. It is common knowledge that European politicians place a high premium (at least for show) on the public opinion in their countries. So it is obvious that from now on or at least at the current stage, it would be wrong, to put it mildly, to claim that the public opinion of European countries does not support Ukraine’s European integration.
On the other hand, the mass awareness of EU citizens still encompasses the admiration caused by last year’s events, when Ukraine became a “fashionable country” for the first time in its history, but this support may soon evaporate. There are many factors that could bring this about: scandals, some unclear actions on the part of the leadership, corruption, inability to keep a promise, no signs of genuine progress, a gap between words and deeds, etc.
As a matter of fact, what ministers Joschka Fischer and Adam Rotfeld, the members of MEDEF, France’s largest association of employers, and the members of the Yalta European Strategy said in Kyiv differed very little from what has already been said at numerous international forums and negotiations: only actions can lead to success, and we should not pin any hopes on sensational breakthroughs until we prove that this country is really developing its democratic institutions and applying the rules of fair play, and that investments in our economy will be duly protected. In this respect, there still is a lot of skepticism in Ukraine and even more so in the EU.
One of the key optimists in Ukraine is Oleh Rybachuk, Vice- Premier for European Integration: he says Ukraine is now drawing up sort of a “road map” of concrete measures to fulfill the EU Action Plan. It looks as though this country is becoming gradually aware of the difficulties that await it on the path on which it has embarked, but no one is despairing. Kyiv will be promoting itself at the Eurovision song context and the business forum scheduled for June. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is planning to adopt a new overall strategy and a new strategy for Ukraine at its annual session in May. Politicians are expected to establish closer contacts, as was once the case in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Lithuania, and Estonia.
All we have to do is prove that we have the political will not only to proclaim tough, effective standards but also to enforce them, after which it will be impossible to complain that Ukrainian laws are out of line with European ones. We must see to it that the visa regime with all the European countries is cancelled, if not altogether then at least maximally eased — only this can revitalize contacts among people, the true motors of any integration. By all accounts, there should be a well balanced and selective approach to this problem: for example, a very strict visa regime should be imposed on EU bureaucrats and politicians (not ordinary citizens) of some EU member states, while media people, businessmen, students, and tourists who would like to visit and invest money in Ukraine must be exempt from visas. Obviously, we must radically update the purpose and personnel of the customs and border security authorities and adopt new regulations for the latter. These innovations may help erase the current unfavorable picture of Ukraine, which the foreign traveler is seeing on its borders. There are countless examples, but they are not amenable to bribes; this probably explains why many things have stayed just as they were during Soviet times (with some cosmetic changes). Long lines on the Ukrainian- Polish and Ukrainian-Hungarian borders deserve to be the subject of lawsuits: after all, the Polish authorities have also made a sizable contribution toward creating a border situation that no normal individual, irrespective of his nationality, would consider acceptable.
The results of the survey sponsored by the Yalta European Strategy can only inspire the Ukrainian government to act at times diplomatically and cautiously, sometimes openly, but always toughly and persistently both inside and outside this country.
