What do American experts think about Vladimir Putin’s declarations that Russia may aim its missiles at the EU in response to US plans to deploy parts of the anti-ballistic missile (ABM) defense network in Poland and the Czech Republic? Can Ukraine join NATO faster? F. Stephen Larrabee, the Corporate Chair in European Security at the RAND Corporation, a nonprofit research organization, answers these and other questions in the following exclusive interview with The Day.
“First of all, I believe Putin made a serious mistake with his statement. He irritated and disconcerted the Europeans and in a way made them ill-disposed to Russia. From the political and tactical point of view, this was a mistake. I believe that he was counting on intimidating the Europeans with these declarations. However, what he achieved was annoyance at Russia.”
So you believe that Putin’s threats turned out to be counterproductive?
“Yes, I do.”
How then should we interpret Putin’s offer, which he made during his meeting with George Bush, to use a radar station in Azerbaijan as a base for a joint ABM defense system? What is the ulterior motive behind this offer?
“I believe this is a tactical maneuver that needs to be studied. It is not altogether clear now whether it is technically possible to use this radar. The radar facility in Habala is located too close to Iran to track Iranian missiles in a way that a radar placed in the Czech Republic is supposed to do.”
You probably heard that Putin later suggested to Bush that the territories of Turkey and Iraq be used instead of Poland as a base for the ABM interceptor missiles?
“This proposal also needs to be studied. But the same problem will crop up here as in Azerbaijan. Turkey is too close to the Iranian border. Therefore, the ABM defense systems designated for Poland will not work in Turkey. Even though this issue will be studied further, it seems to me that this option is not technically viable, unless the Patriot short-range anti-aircraft defense system is used for this purpose.”
Do you believe that, despite the protests in Europe, the US could abandon their plan?
“I think the US needs to analyze what suits European security interests best. It is not totally clear to me whether there is an urgent need for us to locate interceptors in Poland and a radar in the Czech Republic. First of all, the US administration made a series of mistakes by not preparing the political and social foundation in those countries. The Polish government has not received answers to all its questions so that it can persuade all of society. Second, the US resolved primarily technical and military problems, even though most Europeans consider them to be of a political nature. Third, the US totally underestimated the role of public opinion in the Czech Republic and Poland. The public’s worsening attitude to its plans put the US at a disadvantage and forced it to defend its position. Now it cannot do what was possible a few weeks ago. Furthermore, the US is facing a lot more problems now than before.”
In your opinion, can the members of NATO adopt a consensus decision and give the green light to deploying an ABM defense system in Europe?
“Yes, they can. But they will have to reckon with public opinion. This is what received insufficient attention when this issue was being discussed in the US. Now totally different factors have to be taken into consideration. No matter what the decision will be, most countries believe that it has to be adopted within the framework of NATO rather than through bilateral agreements between the US and Poland and the Czech Republic, although nobody denies the US this right. The question is whether this is a politically wise decision.”
Do you see any possibilities of putting pressure on Iran to force it to abandon its nuclear weapons program and stop building their carriers-long-range ballistic missiles?
“Frankly, Iran is going to do what it wants. We will have very little influence on what it is going to do. This is precisely why we need to seriously consider creating such an ABM defense system. But we don’t have to hurry until we are convinced of the following. First, we need to be convinced that the ABM defense system works. Second, we need to consider possible alternatives. Third, this issue needs to be thoroughly discussed with our allies and with Russia. None of these points were fulfilled from the very beginning.
“Returning to the issue of deploying the ABM defense system, I want to emphasize that the US, Poland, and the Czech Republic have the right to deploy parts of it. But politicians have to act wisely. They need at least to heed the opinions of our allies and Russia because this decision is going to have a serious impact on European security in the broader sense, as well on the security of our allies and Russia. Therefore, we need to hold a wider discussion of this problem and finally decide whether we need to start deploying the system or not. We may decide that the system needs to be located in a different place. But the countries that will be affected — the majority of European countries — need to be involved in the discussion as well. So it is clear that such a decision has to satisfy all or nearly all our European allies, as well as take into consideration Russia’s stance. But this does not mean that Russia will have the right of veto.”
President Yushchenko commented on Putin’s threats to aim ballistic missiles at Europe and said that Ukraine has to join NATO as soon as possible. Do you see such a possibility for our country?
“I believe that it will take Ukraine quite a while to join NATO because this step would require a consensus among the political elites and a lot more public support. Both objectives can be achieved but their implementation will take some time. I do not anticipate that Ukraine will join the NATO any time soon. Of course, this is possible, given greater public support and a consensus among political elites.”
If a consensus is reached by the Party of Regions, Our Ukraine, and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, will Ukraine be able to join NATO quickly?
“No. I think you will also have to convince the public because, according to all the polls, Ukraine’s entry into NATO is supported by 17 to 25 percent of the population. This level of support is very low and is a result of long- standing Soviet propaganda. Yanukovych’s anti-NATO rhetoric during the presidential elections also had a negative impact on part of the population. Therefore, increasing popular support for NATO will take time. This cannot be done overnight.”
How much time will we need for this? Three to five years?
“I don’t know exactly how much time is needed — perhaps three or five years; maybe more. The most important thing is that the political elite should reach a consensus and begin seriously informing people about what NATO does and what it doesn’t, and about the advantages and disadvantages of NATO membership. So far this has not been done. Very little money has been spent on programs aimed at informing the public about this.”
