France took over the European Union’s presidency from Slovenia on July 1, 2008. For the next six months this country will be playing its own diplomatic cards in the EU game. France has now proposed a rather ambitious action plan that can be boiled down to the following four priorities: immigration, joint security, power engineering and environmental protection, and a review of joint agricultural policies.
However, from the very outset it appears unrealistic that France’s presidency will help implement these plans. Ireland’s “No!” to the Lisbon treaty spoiled the French game. Now much energy and effort will be aimed at getting this treaty back on track. The results of France’s presidency will be assessed in terms of measures that are aimed at resolving the crisis stemming from Ireland’s referendum.
One positive aspect is that France will have to guide the European Union out of the troubled waters. France has enough experience not to treat the failed referendum as a tragedy and to realize that it must take a reasonable course. It should not exert excessive pressure in its relations with Ireland because this tactic could produce the reverse effect. On the other hand, France, as a founding member of the European Union and a country with huge social potential (let alone diplomatic clout) is well equipped to effectively resolve the crisis.
Thus, any proposal submitted by France will be treated by the rest of the EU countries with due consideration. This in turn will permit finding a positive solution to the situation in which the European Union has found itself after the Irish referendum.
Naturally, despite the change in priorities, France will try to implement its own action plan. Experts, however, believe that positive solutions will be found only in regard to those issues that will not upset Ireland in the event of another referendum. Climate change and power engineering appear to stand the biggest chance of success. The EU’s barometer indicates that this problem is very popular throughout the continent. The European Union boasts considerable achievements in this sphere. In addition, the European Commission submitted a number of proposals at the beginning of the year. The French presidency of the European Union should play this card.
A limited number of immigration issues could be resolved by the current EU president. But I would not expect a positive approach to this problem. In response to populist statements and the general fear of immigrants, which is especially widespread in Western Europe, one may expect proposals aimed at restricting and even sealing the EU’s borders with the goal of preventing another wave of immigration to EU territory.
I would not expect to see much progress in the sphere of joint security and defense policies or in the review of joint agricultural policies. Neither of these issues is very popular in Ireland, and both were used in the campaign against the Lisbon treaty before the referendum. This is why we should not expect any radical proposals in these spheres. The stakes are too high, and France will not risk losing the game.
If the French succeed in conducting an effective policy in the next six months, then everything will depend on the entire European Union - all its member countries. It should be remembered that the EU is, above all, teamwork. So far, the impression is that not all the team members are playing with equal dedication. France will face the biggest challenge in persuading them to work together. If they can do this, the success of the current EU presidency will be guaranteed.
